[{"volume":36,"oa":1,"fulldoi":"https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.14695","publisher":"Wiley","das_tickbox":"1","oa_version":"Published Version","day":"01","user_id":"2DF688A6-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87","_id":"22461","tmp":{"image":"/images/cc_by_nc.png","short":"CC BY-NC (4.0)","name":"Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0)","legal_code_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/legalcode"},"author":[{"full_name":"Moraga, Jorge Sebastián","first_name":"Jorge Sebastián","last_name":"Moraga"},{"full_name":"Peleg, Nadav","first_name":"Nadav","last_name":"Peleg"},{"first_name":"Peter","full_name":"Molnar, Peter","last_name":"Molnar"},{"first_name":"Simone","full_name":"Fatichi, Simone","id":"cf8e546b-a9b0-11f0-a43b-aa89ed1b56d6","last_name":"Fatichi"},{"last_name":"Burlando","full_name":"Burlando, Paolo","first_name":"Paolo"}],"date_updated":"2026-07-30T10:39:42Z","doi":"10.1002/hyp.14695","OA_place":"publisher","abstract":[{"lang":"eng","text":"<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>A major challenge in assessing the impacts of climate change on hydrological processes lies in dealing with large degrees of uncertainty in the future climate projections. Part of the uncertainty is owed to the intrinsic randomness of climate phenomena, which is considered irreducible. Additionally, modelling the response of hydrological processes to the changing climate requires the use of a chain of numerical models, each of which contributes some degree of uncertainty to the final outputs. As a result, hydrological projections, despite the progressive increase in the accuracy of the models along the chain, still display high levels of uncertainty, especially at small temporal and spatial scales. In this work, we present a framework to quantify and partition the uncertainty of hydrological processes emerging from climate models and internal variability, across a broad range of scales. Using the example of two mountainous catchments in Switzerland, we produced high‐resolution ensembles of climate and hydrological data using a two‐dimensional weather generator (AWE‐GEN‐ 2d) and a distributed hydrological model (TOPKAPI‐ETH). We quantified the uncertainty in hydrological projections towards the end of the century through the estimation of the values of signal‐to‐noise ratios (STNR). We found small STNR absolute values (&lt;1) in the projection of annual streamflow for most sub‐catchments in both study sites that are dominated by the large natural variability of precipitation (explains ~70% of total uncertainty). Furthermore, we investigated in detail specific hydrological components that are critical in the model chain. For example, snowmelt and liquid precipitation exhibit robust change signals, which translates into high STNR values for streamflow during warm seasons and at higher elevations, together with a larger contribution of climate model uncertainty. In contrast, projections of extreme high flows show low STNR values due to large internal climate variability across all elevations, which limits the potential for narrowing their estimation uncertainty.</jats:p>"}],"language":[{"iso":"eng"}],"article_number":"e14695","type":"journal_article","citation":{"chicago":"Moraga, Jorge Sebastián, Nadav Peleg, Peter Molnar, Simone Fatichi, and Paolo Burlando. “Uncertainty in High‐resolution Hydrological Projections: Partitioning the Influence of Climate Models and Natural Climate Variability.” <i>Hydrological Processes</i>. Wiley, 2022. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.14695\">https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.14695</a>.","short":"J.S. Moraga, N. Peleg, P. Molnar, S. Fatichi, P. Burlando, Hydrological Processes 36 (2022).","ieee":"J. S. Moraga, N. Peleg, P. Molnar, S. Fatichi, and P. Burlando, “Uncertainty in high‐resolution hydrological projections: Partitioning the influence of climate models and natural climate variability,” <i>Hydrological Processes</i>, vol. 36, no. 10. Wiley, 2022.","ista":"Moraga JS, Peleg N, Molnar P, Fatichi S, Burlando P. 2022. Uncertainty in high‐resolution hydrological projections: Partitioning the influence of climate models and natural climate variability. Hydrological Processes. 36(10), e14695.","mla":"Moraga, Jorge Sebastián, et al. “Uncertainty in High‐resolution Hydrological Projections: Partitioning the Influence of Climate Models and Natural Climate Variability.” <i>Hydrological Processes</i>, vol. 36, no. 10, e14695, Wiley, 2022, doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.14695\">10.1002/hyp.14695</a>.","apa":"Moraga, J. S., Peleg, N., Molnar, P., Fatichi, S., &#38; Burlando, P. (2022). Uncertainty in high‐resolution hydrological projections: Partitioning the influence of climate models and natural climate variability. <i>Hydrological Processes</i>. Wiley. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.14695\">https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.14695</a>","ama":"Moraga JS, Peleg N, Molnar P, Fatichi S, Burlando P. Uncertainty in high‐resolution hydrological projections: Partitioning the influence of climate models and natural climate variability. <i>Hydrological Processes</i>. 2022;36(10). doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.14695\">10.1002/hyp.14695</a>"},"status":"public","OA_type":"hybrid","intvolume":"        36","has_accepted_license":"1","extern":"1","issue":"10","scopus_import":"1","publication":"Hydrological Processes","quality_controlled":"1","article_processing_charge":"No","main_file_link":[{"url":"https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.14695","open_access":"1"}],"year":"2022","article_type":"original","publication_status":"published","publication_identifier":{"issn":["0885-6087"],"eissn":["1099-1085"]},"date_created":"2026-07-27T12:30:23Z","month":"10","title":"Uncertainty in high‐resolution hydrological projections: Partitioning the influence of climate models and natural climate variability","ddc":["550"],"date_published":"2022-10-01T00:00:00Z"},{"keyword":["Water Science and Technology"],"language":[{"iso":"eng"}],"abstract":[{"text":"We present a field-data rich modelling analysis to reconstruct the climatic forcing, glacier response, and runoff generation from a high-elevation catchment in central Chile over the period 2000–2015 to provide insights into the differing contributions of debris-covered and debris-free glaciers under current and future changing climatic conditions. Model simulations with the physically based glacio-hydrological model TOPKAPI-ETH reveal a period of neutral or slightly positive mass balance between 2000 and 2010, followed by a transition to increasingly large annual mass losses, associated with a recent mega drought. Mass losses commence earlier, and are more severe, for a heavily debris-covered glacier, most likely due to its strong dependence on snow avalanche accumulation, which has declined in recent years. Catchment runoff shows a marked decreasing trend over the study period, but with high interannual variability directly linked to winter snow accumulation, and high contribution from ice melt in dry periods and drought conditions. The study demonstrates the importance of incorporating local-scale processes such as snow avalanche accumulation and spatially variable debris thickness, in understanding the responses of different glacier types to climate change. We highlight the increased dependency of runoff from high Andean catchments on the diminishing resource of glacier ice during dry years.","lang":"eng"}],"doi":"10.1002/hyp.13354","date_updated":"2023-02-28T11:49:36Z","user_id":"2DF688A6-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87","_id":"12603","author":[{"full_name":"Burger, Flavia","first_name":"Flavia","last_name":"Burger"},{"first_name":"Alvaro","full_name":"Ayala, Alvaro","last_name":"Ayala"},{"full_name":"Farias, David","first_name":"David","last_name":"Farias"},{"last_name":"Shaw","first_name":"Thomas E.","full_name":"Shaw, Thomas E."},{"last_name":"MacDonell","full_name":"MacDonell, Shelley","first_name":"Shelley"},{"first_name":"Ben","full_name":"Brock, Ben","last_name":"Brock"},{"last_name":"McPhee","first_name":"James","full_name":"McPhee, James"},{"first_name":"Francesca","full_name":"Pellicciotti, Francesca","id":"b28f055a-81ea-11ed-b70c-a9fe7f7b0e70","last_name":"Pellicciotti"}],"oa_version":"Published Version","day":"26","fulldoi":"https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13354","publisher":"Wiley","page":"214-229","oa":1,"volume":33,"title":"Interannual variability in glacier contribution to runoff from a high‐elevation Andean catchment: Understanding the role of debris cover in glacier hydrology","date_published":"2018-11-26T00:00:00Z","month":"11","date_created":"2023-02-20T08:13:14Z","publication_identifier":{"issn":["0885-6087"],"eissn":["1099-1085"]},"publication_status":"published","article_processing_charge":"No","main_file_link":[{"url":"https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13354","open_access":"1"}],"article_type":"original","year":"2018","quality_controlled":"1","publication":"Hydrological Processes","scopus_import":"1","issue":"2","extern":"1","intvolume":"        33","citation":{"chicago":"Burger, Flavia, Alvaro Ayala, David Farias, Thomas E. Shaw, Shelley MacDonell, Ben Brock, James McPhee, and Francesca Pellicciotti. “Interannual Variability in Glacier Contribution to Runoff from a High‐elevation Andean Catchment: Understanding the Role of Debris Cover in Glacier Hydrology.” <i>Hydrological Processes</i>. Wiley, 2018. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13354\">https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13354</a>.","short":"F. Burger, A. Ayala, D. Farias, T.E. Shaw, S. MacDonell, B. Brock, J. McPhee, F. Pellicciotti, Hydrological Processes 33 (2018) 214–229.","ieee":"F. Burger <i>et al.</i>, “Interannual variability in glacier contribution to runoff from a high‐elevation Andean catchment: Understanding the role of debris cover in glacier hydrology,” <i>Hydrological Processes</i>, vol. 33, no. 2. Wiley, pp. 214–229, 2018.","ista":"Burger F, Ayala A, Farias D, Shaw TE, MacDonell S, Brock B, McPhee J, Pellicciotti F. 2018. Interannual variability in glacier contribution to runoff from a high‐elevation Andean catchment: Understanding the role of debris cover in glacier hydrology. Hydrological Processes. 33(2), 214–229.","mla":"Burger, Flavia, et al. “Interannual Variability in Glacier Contribution to Runoff from a High‐elevation Andean Catchment: Understanding the Role of Debris Cover in Glacier Hydrology.” <i>Hydrological Processes</i>, vol. 33, no. 2, Wiley, 2018, pp. 214–29, doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13354\">10.1002/hyp.13354</a>.","apa":"Burger, F., Ayala, A., Farias, D., Shaw, T. E., MacDonell, S., Brock, B., … Pellicciotti, F. (2018). Interannual variability in glacier contribution to runoff from a high‐elevation Andean catchment: Understanding the role of debris cover in glacier hydrology. <i>Hydrological Processes</i>. Wiley. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13354\">https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13354</a>","ama":"Burger F, Ayala A, Farias D, et al. Interannual variability in glacier contribution to runoff from a high‐elevation Andean catchment: Understanding the role of debris cover in glacier hydrology. <i>Hydrological Processes</i>. 2018;33(2):214-229. doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13354\">10.1002/hyp.13354</a>"},"status":"public","type":"journal_article"},{"year":"2008","article_type":"original","article_processing_charge":"No","publication_identifier":{"issn":["0885-6087"],"eissn":["1099-1085"]},"publication_status":"published","date_created":"2023-02-20T08:18:45Z","month":"09","date_published":"2008-09-15T00:00:00Z","title":"A study of the energy balance and melt regime on Juncal Norte Glacier, semi-arid Andes of central Chile, using melt models of different complexity","type":"journal_article","status":"public","citation":{"short":"F. Pellicciotti, J. Helbing, A. Rivera, V. Favier, J. Corripio, J. Araos, J.-E. Sicart, M. Carenzo, Hydrological Processes 22 (2008) 3980–3997.","chicago":"Pellicciotti, Francesca, Jakob Helbing, Andrés Rivera, Vincent Favier, Javier Corripio, José Araos, Jean-Emmanuel Sicart, and Marco Carenzo. “A Study of the Energy Balance and Melt Regime on Juncal Norte Glacier, Semi-Arid Andes of Central Chile, Using Melt Models of Different Complexity.” <i>Hydrological Processes</i>. Wiley, 2008. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7085\">https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7085</a>.","apa":"Pellicciotti, F., Helbing, J., Rivera, A., Favier, V., Corripio, J., Araos, J., … Carenzo, M. (2008). A study of the energy balance and melt regime on Juncal Norte Glacier, semi-arid Andes of central Chile, using melt models of different complexity. <i>Hydrological Processes</i>. Wiley. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7085\">https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7085</a>","ama":"Pellicciotti F, Helbing J, Rivera A, et al. A study of the energy balance and melt regime on Juncal Norte Glacier, semi-arid Andes of central Chile, using melt models of different complexity. <i>Hydrological Processes</i>. 2008;22(19):3980-3997. doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7085\">10.1002/hyp.7085</a>","ieee":"F. Pellicciotti <i>et al.</i>, “A study of the energy balance and melt regime on Juncal Norte Glacier, semi-arid Andes of central Chile, using melt models of different complexity,” <i>Hydrological Processes</i>, vol. 22, no. 19. Wiley, pp. 3980–3997, 2008.","mla":"Pellicciotti, Francesca, et al. “A Study of the Energy Balance and Melt Regime on Juncal Norte Glacier, Semi-Arid Andes of Central Chile, Using Melt Models of Different Complexity.” <i>Hydrological Processes</i>, vol. 22, no. 19, Wiley, 2008, pp. 3980–97, doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7085\">10.1002/hyp.7085</a>.","ista":"Pellicciotti F, Helbing J, Rivera A, Favier V, Corripio J, Araos J, Sicart J-E, Carenzo M. 2008. A study of the energy balance and melt regime on Juncal Norte Glacier, semi-arid Andes of central Chile, using melt models of different complexity. Hydrological Processes. 22(19), 3980–3997."},"extern":"1","intvolume":"        22","scopus_import":"1","issue":"19","quality_controlled":"1","publication":"Hydrological Processes","author":[{"first_name":"Francesca","id":"b28f055a-81ea-11ed-b70c-a9fe7f7b0e70","full_name":"Pellicciotti, Francesca","orcid":"0000-0002-5554-8087","last_name":"Pellicciotti"},{"last_name":"Helbing","first_name":"Jakob","full_name":"Helbing, Jakob"},{"full_name":"Rivera, Andrés","first_name":"Andrés","last_name":"Rivera"},{"full_name":"Favier, Vincent","first_name":"Vincent","last_name":"Favier"},{"last_name":"Corripio","full_name":"Corripio, Javier","first_name":"Javier"},{"last_name":"Araos","full_name":"Araos, José","first_name":"José"},{"full_name":"Sicart, Jean-Emmanuel","first_name":"Jean-Emmanuel","last_name":"Sicart"},{"last_name":"Carenzo","full_name":"Carenzo, Marco","first_name":"Marco"}],"_id":"12656","user_id":"2DF688A6-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87","date_updated":"2024-10-14T12:00:17Z","doi":"10.1002/hyp.7085","abstract":[{"text":"We use meteorological data from two automatic weather stations (AWS) on Juncal Norte Glacier, central Chile, to investigate the glacier–climate interaction and to test ablation models of different complexity. The semi-arid Central Andes are characterized by dry summers, with precipitation close to zero, low relative humidity and intense solar radiation. We show that katabatic forcing is dominant both on the glacier tongue and in the fore field, and that low humidity and absence of clouds cause strong radiative cooling of the glacier surface. Surface albedo is basically constant for snow and ice, because of the scarcity of solid precipitation. The energy balance of the glacier is simulated for a 2-month period in austral summer using two models of different complexity, which differ in the inclusion of the heat conduction flux into the snowpack and in the parameterization of the incoming longwave radiation. Net shortwave radiation is the dominant component of the energy balance. The sensible heat flux is always positive, while both the net longwave radiation and latent heat flux are negative. Neglecting the subsurface heat flux and corresponding variations in surface temperature leads to an overestimation of ablation of 2% over a total of 3695 mm water equivalent (w.e.) at the end of the season. Correct modelling of incoming longwave radiation is crucial, and we suggest that parameterizations based on vapour pressure and air temperature should be used rather than on computed cloud amount. We also used an enhanced temperature-index model incorporating the shortwave radiation flux, which has two empirical parameters. We apply it both with values of parameters obtained for Alpine glaciers and recalibrated on Juncal Norte. The model recalibrated against the correct energy balance simulations performs very well. The model parameters respond to the meteorological conditions typical of this climatic setting.","lang":"eng"}],"language":[{"iso":"eng"}],"keyword":["Water Science and Technology"],"volume":22,"page":"3980-3997","publisher":"Wiley","fulldoi":"https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7085","oa_version":"None","day":"15"}]