---
OA_place: publisher
OA_type: hybrid
_id: '22461'
abstract:
- lang: eng
text: AbstractA major challenge in assessing the
impacts of climate change on hydrological processes lies in dealing with large
degrees of uncertainty in the future climate projections. Part of the uncertainty
is owed to the intrinsic randomness of climate phenomena, which is considered
irreducible. Additionally, modelling the response of hydrological processes to
the changing climate requires the use of a chain of numerical models, each of
which contributes some degree of uncertainty to the final outputs. As a result,
hydrological projections, despite the progressive increase in the accuracy of
the models along the chain, still display high levels of uncertainty, especially
at small temporal and spatial scales. In this work, we present a framework to
quantify and partition the uncertainty of hydrological processes emerging from
climate models and internal variability, across a broad range of scales. Using
the example of two mountainous catchments in Switzerland, we produced high‐resolution
ensembles of climate and hydrological data using a two‐dimensional weather generator
(AWE‐GEN‐ 2d) and a distributed hydrological model (TOPKAPI‐ETH). We quantified
the uncertainty in hydrological projections towards the end of the century through
the estimation of the values of signal‐to‐noise ratios (STNR). We found small
STNR absolute values (<1) in the projection of annual streamflow for most sub‐catchments
in both study sites that are dominated by the large natural variability of precipitation
(explains ~70% of total uncertainty). Furthermore, we investigated in detail specific
hydrological components that are critical in the model chain. For example, snowmelt
and liquid precipitation exhibit robust change signals, which translates into
high STNR values for streamflow during warm seasons and at higher elevations,
together with a larger contribution of climate model uncertainty. In contrast,
projections of extreme high flows show low STNR values due to large internal climate
variability across all elevations, which limits the potential for narrowing their
estimation uncertainty.
article_number: e14695
article_processing_charge: No
article_type: original
author:
- first_name: Jorge Sebastián
full_name: Moraga, Jorge Sebastián
last_name: Moraga
- first_name: Nadav
full_name: Peleg, Nadav
last_name: Peleg
- first_name: Peter
full_name: Molnar, Peter
last_name: Molnar
- first_name: Simone
full_name: Fatichi, Simone
id: cf8e546b-a9b0-11f0-a43b-aa89ed1b56d6
last_name: Fatichi
- first_name: Paolo
full_name: Burlando, Paolo
last_name: Burlando
citation:
ama: 'Moraga JS, Peleg N, Molnar P, Fatichi S, Burlando P. Uncertainty in high‐resolution
hydrological projections: Partitioning the influence of climate models and natural
climate variability. Hydrological Processes. 2022;36(10). doi:10.1002/hyp.14695'
apa: 'Moraga, J. S., Peleg, N., Molnar, P., Fatichi, S., & Burlando, P. (2022).
Uncertainty in high‐resolution hydrological projections: Partitioning the influence
of climate models and natural climate variability. Hydrological Processes.
Wiley. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.14695'
chicago: 'Moraga, Jorge Sebastián, Nadav Peleg, Peter Molnar, Simone Fatichi, and
Paolo Burlando. “Uncertainty in High‐resolution Hydrological Projections: Partitioning
the Influence of Climate Models and Natural Climate Variability.” Hydrological
Processes. Wiley, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.14695.'
ieee: 'J. S. Moraga, N. Peleg, P. Molnar, S. Fatichi, and P. Burlando, “Uncertainty
in high‐resolution hydrological projections: Partitioning the influence of climate
models and natural climate variability,” Hydrological Processes, vol. 36,
no. 10. Wiley, 2022.'
ista: 'Moraga JS, Peleg N, Molnar P, Fatichi S, Burlando P. 2022. Uncertainty in
high‐resolution hydrological projections: Partitioning the influence of climate
models and natural climate variability. Hydrological Processes. 36(10), e14695.'
mla: 'Moraga, Jorge Sebastián, et al. “Uncertainty in High‐resolution Hydrological
Projections: Partitioning the Influence of Climate Models and Natural Climate
Variability.” Hydrological Processes, vol. 36, no. 10, e14695, Wiley, 2022,
doi:10.1002/hyp.14695.'
short: J.S. Moraga, N. Peleg, P. Molnar, S. Fatichi, P. Burlando, Hydrological Processes
36 (2022).
das_tickbox: '1'
date_created: 2026-07-27T12:30:23Z
date_published: 2022-10-01T00:00:00Z
date_updated: 2026-07-30T10:39:42Z
day: '01'
ddc:
- '550'
doi: 10.1002/hyp.14695
extern: '1'
fulldoi: https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.14695
has_accepted_license: '1'
intvolume: ' 36'
issue: '10'
language:
- iso: eng
license: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
main_file_link:
- open_access: '1'
url: https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.14695
month: '10'
oa: 1
oa_version: Published Version
publication: Hydrological Processes
publication_identifier:
eissn:
- 1099-1085
issn:
- 0885-6087
publication_status: published
publisher: Wiley
quality_controlled: '1'
scopus_import: '1'
status: public
title: 'Uncertainty in high‐resolution hydrological projections: Partitioning the
influence of climate models and natural climate variability'
tmp:
image: /images/cc_by_nc.png
legal_code_url: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/legalcode
name: Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0)
short: CC BY-NC (4.0)
type: journal_article
user_id: 2DF688A6-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87
volume: 36
year: '2022'
...
---
_id: '12603'
abstract:
- lang: eng
text: We present a field-data rich modelling analysis to reconstruct the climatic
forcing, glacier response, and runoff generation from a high-elevation catchment
in central Chile over the period 2000–2015 to provide insights into the differing
contributions of debris-covered and debris-free glaciers under current and future
changing climatic conditions. Model simulations with the physically based glacio-hydrological
model TOPKAPI-ETH reveal a period of neutral or slightly positive mass balance
between 2000 and 2010, followed by a transition to increasingly large annual mass
losses, associated with a recent mega drought. Mass losses commence earlier, and
are more severe, for a heavily debris-covered glacier, most likely due to its
strong dependence on snow avalanche accumulation, which has declined in recent
years. Catchment runoff shows a marked decreasing trend over the study period,
but with high interannual variability directly linked to winter snow accumulation,
and high contribution from ice melt in dry periods and drought conditions. The
study demonstrates the importance of incorporating local-scale processes such
as snow avalanche accumulation and spatially variable debris thickness, in understanding
the responses of different glacier types to climate change. We highlight the increased
dependency of runoff from high Andean catchments on the diminishing resource of
glacier ice during dry years.
article_processing_charge: No
article_type: original
author:
- first_name: Flavia
full_name: Burger, Flavia
last_name: Burger
- first_name: Alvaro
full_name: Ayala, Alvaro
last_name: Ayala
- first_name: David
full_name: Farias, David
last_name: Farias
- first_name: Thomas E.
full_name: Shaw, Thomas E.
last_name: Shaw
- first_name: Shelley
full_name: MacDonell, Shelley
last_name: MacDonell
- first_name: Ben
full_name: Brock, Ben
last_name: Brock
- first_name: James
full_name: McPhee, James
last_name: McPhee
- first_name: Francesca
full_name: Pellicciotti, Francesca
id: b28f055a-81ea-11ed-b70c-a9fe7f7b0e70
last_name: Pellicciotti
citation:
ama: 'Burger F, Ayala A, Farias D, et al. Interannual variability in glacier contribution
to runoff from a high‐elevation Andean catchment: Understanding the role of debris
cover in glacier hydrology. Hydrological Processes. 2018;33(2):214-229.
doi:10.1002/hyp.13354'
apa: 'Burger, F., Ayala, A., Farias, D., Shaw, T. E., MacDonell, S., Brock, B.,
… Pellicciotti, F. (2018). Interannual variability in glacier contribution to
runoff from a high‐elevation Andean catchment: Understanding the role of debris
cover in glacier hydrology. Hydrological Processes. Wiley. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13354'
chicago: 'Burger, Flavia, Alvaro Ayala, David Farias, Thomas E. Shaw, Shelley MacDonell,
Ben Brock, James McPhee, and Francesca Pellicciotti. “Interannual Variability
in Glacier Contribution to Runoff from a High‐elevation Andean Catchment: Understanding
the Role of Debris Cover in Glacier Hydrology.” Hydrological Processes.
Wiley, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13354.'
ieee: 'F. Burger et al., “Interannual variability in glacier contribution
to runoff from a high‐elevation Andean catchment: Understanding the role of debris
cover in glacier hydrology,” Hydrological Processes, vol. 33, no. 2. Wiley,
pp. 214–229, 2018.'
ista: 'Burger F, Ayala A, Farias D, Shaw TE, MacDonell S, Brock B, McPhee J, Pellicciotti
F. 2018. Interannual variability in glacier contribution to runoff from a high‐elevation
Andean catchment: Understanding the role of debris cover in glacier hydrology.
Hydrological Processes. 33(2), 214–229.'
mla: 'Burger, Flavia, et al. “Interannual Variability in Glacier Contribution to
Runoff from a High‐elevation Andean Catchment: Understanding the Role of Debris
Cover in Glacier Hydrology.” Hydrological Processes, vol. 33, no. 2, Wiley,
2018, pp. 214–29, doi:10.1002/hyp.13354.'
short: F. Burger, A. Ayala, D. Farias, T.E. Shaw, S. MacDonell, B. Brock, J. McPhee,
F. Pellicciotti, Hydrological Processes 33 (2018) 214–229.
date_created: 2023-02-20T08:13:14Z
date_published: 2018-11-26T00:00:00Z
date_updated: 2023-02-28T11:49:36Z
day: '26'
doi: 10.1002/hyp.13354
extern: '1'
fulldoi: https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13354
intvolume: ' 33'
issue: '2'
keyword:
- Water Science and Technology
language:
- iso: eng
main_file_link:
- open_access: '1'
url: https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13354
month: '11'
oa: 1
oa_version: Published Version
page: 214-229
publication: Hydrological Processes
publication_identifier:
eissn:
- 1099-1085
issn:
- 0885-6087
publication_status: published
publisher: Wiley
quality_controlled: '1'
scopus_import: '1'
status: public
title: 'Interannual variability in glacier contribution to runoff from a high‐elevation
Andean catchment: Understanding the role of debris cover in glacier hydrology'
type: journal_article
user_id: 2DF688A6-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87
volume: 33
year: '2018'
...
---
_id: '12656'
abstract:
- lang: eng
text: We use meteorological data from two automatic weather stations (AWS) on Juncal
Norte Glacier, central Chile, to investigate the glacier–climate interaction and
to test ablation models of different complexity. The semi-arid Central Andes are
characterized by dry summers, with precipitation close to zero, low relative humidity
and intense solar radiation. We show that katabatic forcing is dominant both on
the glacier tongue and in the fore field, and that low humidity and absence of
clouds cause strong radiative cooling of the glacier surface. Surface albedo is
basically constant for snow and ice, because of the scarcity of solid precipitation.
The energy balance of the glacier is simulated for a 2-month period in austral
summer using two models of different complexity, which differ in the inclusion
of the heat conduction flux into the snowpack and in the parameterization of the
incoming longwave radiation. Net shortwave radiation is the dominant component
of the energy balance. The sensible heat flux is always positive, while both the
net longwave radiation and latent heat flux are negative. Neglecting the subsurface
heat flux and corresponding variations in surface temperature leads to an overestimation
of ablation of 2% over a total of 3695 mm water equivalent (w.e.) at the end of
the season. Correct modelling of incoming longwave radiation is crucial, and we
suggest that parameterizations based on vapour pressure and air temperature should
be used rather than on computed cloud amount. We also used an enhanced temperature-index
model incorporating the shortwave radiation flux, which has two empirical parameters.
We apply it both with values of parameters obtained for Alpine glaciers and recalibrated
on Juncal Norte. The model recalibrated against the correct energy balance simulations
performs very well. The model parameters respond to the meteorological conditions
typical of this climatic setting.
article_processing_charge: No
article_type: original
author:
- first_name: Francesca
full_name: Pellicciotti, Francesca
id: b28f055a-81ea-11ed-b70c-a9fe7f7b0e70
last_name: Pellicciotti
orcid: 0000-0002-5554-8087
- first_name: Jakob
full_name: Helbing, Jakob
last_name: Helbing
- first_name: Andrés
full_name: Rivera, Andrés
last_name: Rivera
- first_name: Vincent
full_name: Favier, Vincent
last_name: Favier
- first_name: Javier
full_name: Corripio, Javier
last_name: Corripio
- first_name: José
full_name: Araos, José
last_name: Araos
- first_name: Jean-Emmanuel
full_name: Sicart, Jean-Emmanuel
last_name: Sicart
- first_name: Marco
full_name: Carenzo, Marco
last_name: Carenzo
citation:
ama: Pellicciotti F, Helbing J, Rivera A, et al. A study of the energy balance and
melt regime on Juncal Norte Glacier, semi-arid Andes of central Chile, using melt
models of different complexity. Hydrological Processes. 2008;22(19):3980-3997.
doi:10.1002/hyp.7085
apa: Pellicciotti, F., Helbing, J., Rivera, A., Favier, V., Corripio, J., Araos,
J., … Carenzo, M. (2008). A study of the energy balance and melt regime on Juncal
Norte Glacier, semi-arid Andes of central Chile, using melt models of different
complexity. Hydrological Processes. Wiley. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7085
chicago: Pellicciotti, Francesca, Jakob Helbing, Andrés Rivera, Vincent Favier,
Javier Corripio, José Araos, Jean-Emmanuel Sicart, and Marco Carenzo. “A Study
of the Energy Balance and Melt Regime on Juncal Norte Glacier, Semi-Arid Andes
of Central Chile, Using Melt Models of Different Complexity.” Hydrological
Processes. Wiley, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7085.
ieee: F. Pellicciotti et al., “A study of the energy balance and melt regime
on Juncal Norte Glacier, semi-arid Andes of central Chile, using melt models of
different complexity,” Hydrological Processes, vol. 22, no. 19. Wiley,
pp. 3980–3997, 2008.
ista: Pellicciotti F, Helbing J, Rivera A, Favier V, Corripio J, Araos J, Sicart
J-E, Carenzo M. 2008. A study of the energy balance and melt regime on Juncal
Norte Glacier, semi-arid Andes of central Chile, using melt models of different
complexity. Hydrological Processes. 22(19), 3980–3997.
mla: Pellicciotti, Francesca, et al. “A Study of the Energy Balance and Melt Regime
on Juncal Norte Glacier, Semi-Arid Andes of Central Chile, Using Melt Models of
Different Complexity.” Hydrological Processes, vol. 22, no. 19, Wiley,
2008, pp. 3980–97, doi:10.1002/hyp.7085.
short: F. Pellicciotti, J. Helbing, A. Rivera, V. Favier, J. Corripio, J. Araos,
J.-E. Sicart, M. Carenzo, Hydrological Processes 22 (2008) 3980–3997.
date_created: 2023-02-20T08:18:45Z
date_published: 2008-09-15T00:00:00Z
date_updated: 2024-10-14T12:00:17Z
day: '15'
doi: 10.1002/hyp.7085
extern: '1'
fulldoi: https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7085
intvolume: ' 22'
issue: '19'
keyword:
- Water Science and Technology
language:
- iso: eng
month: '09'
oa_version: None
page: 3980-3997
publication: Hydrological Processes
publication_identifier:
eissn:
- 1099-1085
issn:
- 0885-6087
publication_status: published
publisher: Wiley
quality_controlled: '1'
scopus_import: '1'
status: public
title: A study of the energy balance and melt regime on Juncal Norte Glacier, semi-arid
Andes of central Chile, using melt models of different complexity
type: journal_article
user_id: 2DF688A6-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87
volume: 22
year: '2008'
...