---
DOAJ_listed: '1'
OA_place: publisher
OA_type: gold
_id: '21035'
abstract:
- lang: eng
text: According to the scientific consensus, tropical convection must decrease with
global warming. This decrease is manifested by a decrease of the mass transported
in the upward branch of the atmospheric overturning circulation – the convective
mass flux – and a connected decrease of high clouds in the tropics, with implications
for climate sensitivity. By using kilometer-scale simulations in radiative-convective
equilibrium and a convective tracking algorithm, we show that no such decrease
occurs in storms when taken individually and that the mass transport per storm
increases instead. Storms can achieve this result by aggregating more surface
of the convective cores – the inner part of the storm doing the vertical transport
– so that the decrease of tropical convection is actually explained by a decrease
in the total number of storms. There is little variation of the mean pressure
velocity in the cores of the storms, a robust finding of this study. This remarkable
invariance of the mean pressure velocity points to an emerging property of convection
that should receive more attention in future studies.
acknowledgement: We thank Sophie Cloché for her support with the handling of the various
datasets. This study benefited from the IPSL mesocenter ESPRI facility which is
supported by CNRS, UPMC, Labex L-IPSL, CNES and Ecole Polytechnique. The authors
acknowledge the CNES and CNRS support under the Megha-Tropiques program. C.M. gratefully
acknowledges funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European
Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (Project CLUSTER, Grant Agreement
No. 805041).
article_number: '14'
article_processing_charge: Yes
article_type: original
author:
- first_name: Maximilien
full_name: Bolot, Maximilien
last_name: Bolot
- first_name: Rémy
full_name: Roca, Rémy
last_name: Roca
- first_name: Thomas
full_name: Fiolleau, Thomas
last_name: Fiolleau
- first_name: Caroline J
full_name: Muller, Caroline J
id: f978ccb0-3f7f-11eb-b193-b0e2bd13182b
last_name: Muller
orcid: 0000-0001-5836-5350
citation:
ama: Bolot M, Roca R, Fiolleau T, Muller CJ. No decrease of tropical convection
in individual deep convective systems with global warming. npj Climate and
Atmospheric Science. 2026;9. doi:10.1038/s41612-025-01285-5
apa: Bolot, M., Roca, R., Fiolleau, T., & Muller, C. J. (2026). No decrease
of tropical convection in individual deep convective systems with global warming.
Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. Springer Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01285-5
chicago: Bolot, Maximilien, Rémy Roca, Thomas Fiolleau, and Caroline J Muller. “No
Decrease of Tropical Convection in Individual Deep Convective Systems with Global
Warming.” Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. Springer Nature, 2026. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01285-5.
ieee: M. Bolot, R. Roca, T. Fiolleau, and C. J. Muller, “No decrease of tropical
convection in individual deep convective systems with global warming,” npj
Climate and Atmospheric Science, vol. 9. Springer Nature, 2026.
ista: Bolot M, Roca R, Fiolleau T, Muller CJ. 2026. No decrease of tropical convection
in individual deep convective systems with global warming. npj Climate and Atmospheric
Science. 9, 14.
mla: Bolot, Maximilien, et al. “No Decrease of Tropical Convection in Individual
Deep Convective Systems with Global Warming.” Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science,
vol. 9, 14, Springer Nature, 2026, doi:10.1038/s41612-025-01285-5.
short: M. Bolot, R. Roca, T. Fiolleau, C.J. Muller, Npj Climate and Atmospheric
Science 9 (2026).
date_created: 2026-01-25T23:01:38Z
date_published: 2026-01-15T00:00:00Z
date_updated: 2026-02-12T08:41:09Z
day: '15'
ddc:
- '550'
department:
- _id: CaMu
doi: 10.1038/s41612-025-01285-5
ec_funded: 1
external_id:
pmid:
- '41550270'
file:
- access_level: open_access
checksum: c433bba3822b3c6c4a5260ad5e2429a0
content_type: application/pdf
creator: dernst
date_created: 2026-02-12T08:39:27Z
date_updated: 2026-02-12T08:39:27Z
file_id: '21215'
file_name: 2026_njpClimateAtmScience_Bolot.pdf
file_size: 511226
relation: main_file
success: 1
file_date_updated: 2026-02-12T08:39:27Z
has_accepted_license: '1'
intvolume: ' 9'
language:
- iso: eng
license: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
month: '01'
oa: 1
oa_version: Published Version
pmid: 1
project:
- _id: 629205d8-2b32-11ec-9570-e1356ff73576
call_identifier: H2020
grant_number: '805041'
name: Organization of CLoUdS, and implications of Tropical cyclones and for the
Energetics of the tropics, in current and waRming climate
publication: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
publication_identifier:
eissn:
- 2397-3722
publication_status: published
publisher: Springer Nature
quality_controlled: '1'
scopus_import: '1'
status: public
title: No decrease of tropical convection in individual deep convective systems with
global warming
tmp:
image: /images/cc_by_nc_nd.png
legal_code_url: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/legalcode
name: Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
(CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)
short: CC BY-NC-ND (4.0)
type: journal_article
user_id: 2DF688A6-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87
volume: 9
year: '2026'
...
---
DOAJ_listed: '1'
OA_place: publisher
OA_type: gold
_id: '19080'
abstract:
- lang: eng
text: We examine mesoscale convective organisation in the tropical western Pacific
using a multivariate analysis of column humidity, precipitation and sea surface
temperature (SST) observations. We demonstrate that in boreal summer and autumn,
convection remains spatially random despite radiative-feedbacks acting to aggregate
convection, which we attribute to the high density of convective moisture sources
and the role of wind shear. Instead, in winter and spring, a weak meridional SST
gradient exists and convection is usually clustered over the regions of warmer
SSTs, with significant meridional humidity gradients. However, this is sporadically
interrupted by episodes of convection migration to the coldest SSTs and limited
spatial humidity variance. These episodes are the result of westward propagating
equatorial waves, which remove meridional humidity gradients. It appears that
the drivers of mesoscale convective clustering and humidity variability in the
Pacific warm pool are the SST gradients, shear, and equatorial wave dynamics.
acknowledgement: This paper is based on A.C. Ph.D. thesis, chapter 4. A.C. was supported
by an ICTP Ph.D scholarship and subsequently by funding from the European Union’s
Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie
grant agreement No 101034413. MVDV was supported by an ICTP diploma programme scholarship
while carrying out analysis for this publication. The funders played no role in
study design, data collection, analysis and interpretation of data, or the writing
of this manuscript. We would like to thank Maria Gehne of NOAA for providing the
code for the wave activity calculation and advice on its use, and Fred Kucharski,
Erika Coppola, Hernández-Deckers, Caroline Muller and Paolina Cerlini for their
insightful comments and advice
article_number: '69'
article_processing_charge: Yes
article_type: original
author:
- first_name: Adrian Mike
full_name: Tompkins, Adrian Mike
last_name: Tompkins
- first_name: Alejandro
full_name: Casallas Garcia, Alejandro
id: 92081129-2d75-11ef-a48d-b04dd7a2385a
last_name: Casallas Garcia
orcid: 0000-0002-1988-5035
- first_name: Michie Vianca
full_name: De Vera, Michie Vianca
last_name: De Vera
citation:
ama: Tompkins AM, Casallas Garcia A, De Vera MV. Drivers of mesoscale convective
aggregation and spatial humidity variability in the tropical western Pacific.
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. 2025;8. doi:10.1038/s41612-024-00848-2
apa: Tompkins, A. M., Casallas Garcia, A., & De Vera, M. V. (2025). Drivers
of mesoscale convective aggregation and spatial humidity variability in the tropical
western Pacific. Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. Springer Nature.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00848-2
chicago: Tompkins, Adrian Mike, Alejandro Casallas Garcia, and Michie Vianca De
Vera. “Drivers of Mesoscale Convective Aggregation and Spatial Humidity Variability
in the Tropical Western Pacific.” Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science.
Springer Nature, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00848-2.
ieee: A. M. Tompkins, A. Casallas Garcia, and M. V. De Vera, “Drivers of mesoscale
convective aggregation and spatial humidity variability in the tropical western
Pacific,” npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, vol. 8. Springer Nature,
2025.
ista: Tompkins AM, Casallas Garcia A, De Vera MV. 2025. Drivers of mesoscale convective
aggregation and spatial humidity variability in the tropical western Pacific.
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. 8, 69.
mla: Tompkins, Adrian Mike, et al. “Drivers of Mesoscale Convective Aggregation
and Spatial Humidity Variability in the Tropical Western Pacific.” Npj Climate
and Atmospheric Science, vol. 8, 69, Springer Nature, 2025, doi:10.1038/s41612-024-00848-2.
short: A.M. Tompkins, A. Casallas Garcia, M.V. De Vera, Npj Climate and Atmospheric
Science 8 (2025).
corr_author: '1'
date_created: 2025-02-24T10:18:50Z
date_published: 2025-02-24T00:00:00Z
date_updated: 2025-09-30T10:41:20Z
day: '24'
ddc:
- '550'
department:
- _id: CaMu
doi: 10.1038/s41612-024-00848-2
ec_funded: 1
external_id:
isi:
- '001432282900002'
file:
- access_level: open_access
checksum: a62c4fd5ddc1b240ed1e755d02ef7c05
content_type: application/pdf
creator: acasalla
date_created: 2025-02-24T10:18:47Z
date_updated: 2025-02-24T10:18:47Z
file_id: '19081'
file_name: Casallas_npj_2025.pdf
file_size: 5807997
relation: main_file
- access_level: open_access
checksum: 101072da7cbcc8b44aa47e3317546f78
content_type: application/pdf
creator: acasalla
date_created: 2025-02-24T10:24:12Z
date_updated: 2025-02-24T10:24:12Z
file_id: '19082'
file_name: Casallas_npj_2025_SM.pdf
file_size: 13703455
relation: main_file
success: 1
file_date_updated: 2025-02-24T10:24:12Z
has_accepted_license: '1'
intvolume: ' 8'
isi: 1
language:
- iso: eng
month: '02'
oa: 1
oa_version: Published Version
project:
- _id: fc2ed2f7-9c52-11eb-aca3-c01059dda49c
call_identifier: H2020
grant_number: '101034413'
name: 'IST-BRIDGE: International postdoctoral program'
publication: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
publication_identifier:
eissn:
- 2397-3722
publication_status: published
publisher: Springer Nature
quality_controlled: '1'
scopus_import: '1'
status: public
title: Drivers of mesoscale convective aggregation and spatial humidity variability
in the tropical western Pacific
tmp:
image: /images/cc_by_nc_nd.png
legal_code_url: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/legalcode
name: Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
(CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)
short: CC BY-NC-ND (4.0)
type: journal_article
user_id: 317138e5-6ab7-11ef-aa6d-ffef3953e345
volume: 8
year: '2025'
...
---
APC_amount: 3774 EUR
DOAJ_listed: '1'
OA_place: publisher
OA_type: gold
_id: '20026'
abstract:
- lang: eng
text: Deep Convective Systems (DCSs) reaching scales of 100–1000 km play a pivotal
role as the primary precipitation source in the tropics. Those systems can have
large cloud shields, and thus not only affect severe precipitation patterns but
also play a crucial part in modulating the tropical radiation budget. Understanding
the complex factors that control how these systems grow and how they will behave
in a warming climate remain fundamental challenges. Research efforts have been
directed, on one hand, towards understanding the environmental control on these
systems, and on the other hand, towards exploring the internal potential of systems
to develop and self-aggregate in idealized simulations. However, we still lack
understanding on the relative role of the environment and internal feedbacks on
DCS mature size and why. The novel high-resolution global SAM simulation from
the DYAMOND project, combined with the TOOCAN Lagrangian tracking of DCSs and
machine learning tools, offers an unprecedented opportunity to explore this question.
We find that a system’s growth rate during the first 2 h of development predicts
its final size with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.65. Beyond this period,
growth rate emerges as the strongest predictor. However, in the early stages,
additional factors–such as ice water path heterogeneity, migration distance, interactions
with neighboring systems, and deep shear–play a more significant role. Our study
quantitatively assesses the relative influence of internal versus external factors
on the mature cloud shield size. Our results show that system-intrinsic properties
exert a stronger influence than environmental conditions, suggesting that the
initial environment does not strictly constrain final system size, particularly
for larger systems where internal dynamics dominate.
acknowledgement: C.M. and S.A. gratefully acknowledge funding from the European Research
Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program
(Project CLUSTER, grant agreement 805041), and from the PhD fellowship of Ecole
Normale Supérieure de Paris-Saclay. DYAMOND data management was provided by the
German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ) and supported through the projects ESiWACE
and ESiWACE2. The projects ESiWACE and ESiWACE2 have received funding from the European
Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreements No 675191
and 823988. This work used resources of the Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ)
granted by its Scientific Steering Committee (WLA) under project IDs bk1040 and
bb1153. The authors express their gratitude to Sophie Cloché and Eileen Hertwig
for their assistance in data archival at IPSL and DKRZ, respectively. We also thank
Christophe Lampert and Benjamin Fildier for valuable scientific discussions, and
acknowledge the thoughtful comments of two anonymous reviewers.
article_number: '258'
article_processing_charge: Yes
article_type: original
author:
- first_name: Sophie
full_name: Abramian, Sophie
last_name: Abramian
- first_name: Caroline J
full_name: Muller, Caroline J
id: f978ccb0-3f7f-11eb-b193-b0e2bd13182b
last_name: Muller
orcid: 0000-0001-5836-5350
- first_name: Camille
full_name: Risi, Camille
last_name: Risi
- first_name: Thomas
full_name: Fiolleau, Thomas
last_name: Fiolleau
- first_name: Rémy
full_name: Roca, Rémy
last_name: Roca
citation:
ama: Abramian S, Muller CJ, Risi C, Fiolleau T, Roca R. How key features of early
development shape deep convective systems. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science.
2025;8. doi:10.1038/s41612-025-01154-1
apa: Abramian, S., Muller, C. J., Risi, C., Fiolleau, T., & Roca, R. (2025).
How key features of early development shape deep convective systems. Npj Climate
and Atmospheric Science. Springer Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01154-1
chicago: Abramian, Sophie, Caroline J Muller, Camille Risi, Thomas Fiolleau, and
Rémy Roca. “How Key Features of Early Development Shape Deep Convective Systems.”
Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. Springer Nature, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01154-1.
ieee: S. Abramian, C. J. Muller, C. Risi, T. Fiolleau, and R. Roca, “How key features
of early development shape deep convective systems,” npj Climate and Atmospheric
Science, vol. 8. Springer Nature, 2025.
ista: Abramian S, Muller CJ, Risi C, Fiolleau T, Roca R. 2025. How key features
of early development shape deep convective systems. npj Climate and Atmospheric
Science. 8, 258.
mla: Abramian, Sophie, et al. “How Key Features of Early Development Shape Deep
Convective Systems.” Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, vol. 8, 258,
Springer Nature, 2025, doi:10.1038/s41612-025-01154-1.
short: S. Abramian, C.J. Muller, C. Risi, T. Fiolleau, R. Roca, Npj Climate and
Atmospheric Science 8 (2025).
date_created: 2025-07-20T22:01:59Z
date_published: 2025-07-08T00:00:00Z
date_updated: 2026-05-20T08:39:39Z
day: '08'
ddc:
- '550'
department:
- _id: CaMu
doi: 10.1038/s41612-025-01154-1
ec_funded: 1
external_id:
isi:
- '001524244500001'
file:
- access_level: open_access
checksum: 8113405b3e52024b24621ea21d89b3ab
content_type: application/pdf
creator: dernst
date_created: 2025-07-22T06:02:14Z
date_updated: 2025-07-22T06:02:14Z
file_id: '20061'
file_name: 2025_njpClimate_Abramian.pdf
file_size: 3919446
relation: main_file
success: 1
file_date_updated: 2025-07-22T06:02:14Z
has_accepted_license: '1'
intvolume: ' 8'
isi: 1
language:
- iso: eng
month: '07'
oa: 1
oa_version: Published Version
project:
- _id: 629205d8-2b32-11ec-9570-e1356ff73576
call_identifier: H2020
grant_number: '805041'
name: Organization of CLoUdS, and implications of Tropical cyclones and for the
Energetics of the tropics, in current and waRming climate
publication: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
publication_identifier:
eissn:
- 2397-3722
publication_status: published
publisher: Springer Nature
quality_controlled: '1'
scopus_import: '1'
status: public
title: How key features of early development shape deep convective systems
tmp:
image: /images/cc_by_nc_nd.png
legal_code_url: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/legalcode
name: Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
(CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)
short: CC BY-NC-ND (4.0)
type: journal_article
user_id: 2DF688A6-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87
volume: 8
year: '2025'
...
---
DOAJ_listed: '1'
OA_place: publisher
OA_type: gold
_id: '18708'
abstract:
- lang: eng
text: This study investigates the response of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) precipitation
to CO2 removal, with a specific focus on regional and subseasonal variations.
Following CO2 removal, monsoon circulation weakens throughout the summer owing
to the reduced large-scale meridional temperature gradient around India. Weakened
monsoon circulation decreases the local-scale thermodynamic stability within India,
following monsoon-onset periods. While the frequency of synoptic-scale ISM low-pressure
systems (LPSs) decreases overall, the lower thermodynamic stability causes the
LPSs to form and resultantly shift west and south from their typical paths, last
longer and move more quickly zonally during August and September. Changes in these
rain-producing processes induce distinct regional (Western Ghats, south-central-east
India, and Tamil Nadu) and subseasonal precipitation responses. Also, extreme
precipitation exhibits similar patterns, but is more strongly affected by changes
in LPS. Our results suggest that reliable future projections of regional hydroclimate
change require a more accurate understanding of multi-scale precipitation processes.
acknowledgement: This study was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea
(NRF) grant funded by the Korean government (MSIT) (NRF-2018R1A5A1024958, NRF-2021R1C1C2094185,
RS-2024-00336160). Model simulation and data transfer were supported by the National
Supercomputing Center with supercomputing resources including technical support
(KSC-2021-CHA-0030), the National Center for Meteorological Supercomputer of the
Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), and by the Korea Research Environment
Open NETwork (KREONET), respectively. DK was supported by New Faculty Startup Fund
from Seoul National University. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme,
which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modelling, coordinated and promoted
CMIP6. We thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their
model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and
providing access (https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6/), and the multiple
funding agencies who support CMIP6 and ESGF.
article_number: '305'
article_processing_charge: Yes
article_type: original
author:
- first_name: Seungmok
full_name: Paik, Seungmok
last_name: Paik
- first_name: Daehyun
full_name: Kim, Daehyun
last_name: Kim
- first_name: Soon Il
full_name: An, Soon Il
last_name: An
- first_name: Hyoeun
full_name: Oh, Hyoeun
last_name: Oh
- first_name: Jongsoo
full_name: Shin, Jongsoo
last_name: Shin
- first_name: Bidyut B
full_name: Goswami, Bidyut B
id: 3a4ac09c-6d61-11ec-bf66-884cde66b64b
last_name: Goswami
orcid: 0000-0001-8602-3083
- first_name: Seung Ki
full_name: Min, Seung Ki
last_name: Min
- first_name: Sanjit Kumar
full_name: Mondal, Sanjit Kumar
last_name: Mondal
citation:
ama: Paik S, Kim D, An SI, et al. Exploring causes of distinct regional and subseasonal
Indian summer monsoon precipitation responses to CO2 removal. npj Climate and
Atmospheric Science. 2024;7. doi:10.1038/s41612-024-00858-0
apa: Paik, S., Kim, D., An, S. I., Oh, H., Shin, J., GOSWAMI, B. B., … Mondal, S.
K. (2024). Exploring causes of distinct regional and subseasonal Indian summer
monsoon precipitation responses to CO2 removal. Npj Climate and Atmospheric
Science. Springer Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00858-0
chicago: Paik, Seungmok, Daehyun Kim, Soon Il An, Hyoeun Oh, Jongsoo Shin, BIDYUT
B GOSWAMI, Seung Ki Min, and Sanjit Kumar Mondal. “Exploring Causes of Distinct
Regional and Subseasonal Indian Summer Monsoon Precipitation Responses to CO2
Removal.” Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. Springer Nature, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00858-0.
ieee: S. Paik et al., “Exploring causes of distinct regional and subseasonal
Indian summer monsoon precipitation responses to CO2 removal,” npj Climate
and Atmospheric Science, vol. 7. Springer Nature, 2024.
ista: Paik S, Kim D, An SI, Oh H, Shin J, GOSWAMI BB, Min SK, Mondal SK. 2024. Exploring
causes of distinct regional and subseasonal Indian summer monsoon precipitation
responses to CO2 removal. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. 7, 305.
mla: Paik, Seungmok, et al. “Exploring Causes of Distinct Regional and Subseasonal
Indian Summer Monsoon Precipitation Responses to CO2 Removal.” Npj Climate
and Atmospheric Science, vol. 7, 305, Springer Nature, 2024, doi:10.1038/s41612-024-00858-0.
short: S. Paik, D. Kim, S.I. An, H. Oh, J. Shin, B.B. GOSWAMI, S.K. Min, S.K. Mondal,
Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 7 (2024).
date_created: 2024-12-29T23:01:57Z
date_published: 2024-12-19T00:00:00Z
date_updated: 2025-09-09T11:51:56Z
day: '19'
ddc:
- '550'
department:
- _id: CaMu
doi: 10.1038/s41612-024-00858-0
external_id:
isi:
- '001381218300007'
file:
- access_level: open_access
checksum: 6b3148315a444835113c32b399010370
content_type: application/pdf
creator: dernst
date_created: 2025-01-02T08:49:13Z
date_updated: 2025-01-02T08:49:13Z
file_id: '18717'
file_name: 2024_npjclimate_Paik.pdf
file_size: 1927871
relation: main_file
success: 1
file_date_updated: 2025-01-02T08:49:13Z
has_accepted_license: '1'
intvolume: ' 7'
isi: 1
language:
- iso: eng
month: '12'
oa: 1
oa_version: Published Version
publication: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
publication_identifier:
eissn:
- 2397-3722
publication_status: published
publisher: Springer Nature
quality_controlled: '1'
scopus_import: '1'
status: public
title: Exploring causes of distinct regional and subseasonal Indian summer monsoon
precipitation responses to CO2 removal
tmp:
image: /images/cc_by_nc_nd.png
legal_code_url: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/legalcode
name: Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
(CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)
short: CC BY-NC-ND (4.0)
type: journal_article
user_id: 317138e5-6ab7-11ef-aa6d-ffef3953e345
volume: 7
year: '2024'
...
---
_id: '13256'
abstract:
- lang: eng
text: The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian summer monsoon (ISM,
or monsoon) are two giants of tropical climate. Here we assess the future evolution
of the ENSO-monsoon teleconnection in climate simulations with idealized forcing
of CO2 increment at a rate of 1% year-1 starting from a present-day condition
(367 p.p.m.) until quadrupling. We find a monotonous weakening of the ENSO-monsoon
teleconnection with the increase in CO2. Increased co-occurrences of El Niño and
positive Indian Ocean Dipoles (pIODs) in a warmer climate weaken the teleconnection.
Co-occurrences of El Niño and pIOD are attributable to mean sea surface temperature
(SST) warming that resembles a pIOD-type warming pattern in the Indian Ocean and
an El Niño-type warming in the Pacific. Since ENSO is a critical precursor of
the strength of the Indian monsoon, a weakening of this relation may mean a less
predictable Indian monsoon in a warmer climate.
acknowledgement: This work was supported by National Research Foundation of Korea
(NRF) grants funded by the Korean government (MSIT) (NRF-2018R1A5A1024958, RS-2023-00208000).
Model simulation and data transfer were supported by the National Supercomputing
Center with supercomputing resources including technical support (KSC-2019-CHA-0005),
the National Center for Meteorological Supercomputer of the Korea Meteorological
Administration (KMA), and by the Korea Research Environment Open NETwork (KREONET),
respectively. We sincerely thank Dr. Jongsoo Shin of Pohang University of Science
and Technology, Pohang, South Korea for the model simulations.
article_number: '82'
article_processing_charge: Yes
article_type: original
author:
- first_name: Bidyut B
full_name: Goswami, Bidyut B
id: 3a4ac09c-6d61-11ec-bf66-884cde66b64b
last_name: Goswami
- first_name: Soon Il
full_name: An, Soon Il
last_name: An
citation:
ama: GOSWAMI BB, An SI. An assessment of the ENSO-monsoon teleconnection in a warming
climate. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. 2023;6. doi:10.1038/s41612-023-00411-5
apa: GOSWAMI, B. B., & An, S. I. (2023). An assessment of the ENSO-monsoon teleconnection
in a warming climate. Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. Springer Nature.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00411-5
chicago: GOSWAMI, BIDYUT B, and Soon Il An. “An Assessment of the ENSO-Monsoon Teleconnection
in a Warming Climate.” Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. Springer Nature,
2023. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00411-5.
ieee: B. B. GOSWAMI and S. I. An, “An assessment of the ENSO-monsoon teleconnection
in a warming climate,” npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, vol. 6. Springer
Nature, 2023.
ista: GOSWAMI BB, An SI. 2023. An assessment of the ENSO-monsoon teleconnection
in a warming climate. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. 6, 82.
mla: GOSWAMI, BIDYUT B., and Soon Il An. “An Assessment of the ENSO-Monsoon Teleconnection
in a Warming Climate.” Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, vol. 6, 82,
Springer Nature, 2023, doi:10.1038/s41612-023-00411-5.
short: B.B. GOSWAMI, S.I. An, Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 6 (2023).
date_created: 2023-07-23T22:01:10Z
date_published: 2023-07-08T00:00:00Z
date_updated: 2023-08-02T06:38:07Z
day: '08'
ddc:
- '550'
department:
- _id: CaMu
doi: 10.1038/s41612-023-00411-5
external_id:
isi:
- '001024920300002'
file:
- access_level: open_access
checksum: e9967d436a83b8ffcc6f58782e1f7500
content_type: application/pdf
creator: dernst
date_created: 2023-07-31T08:00:01Z
date_updated: 2023-07-31T08:00:01Z
file_id: '13326'
file_name: 2023_npjclimate_Goswami.pdf
file_size: 1750712
relation: main_file
success: 1
file_date_updated: 2023-07-31T08:00:01Z
has_accepted_license: '1'
intvolume: ' 6'
isi: 1
language:
- iso: eng
license: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
month: '07'
oa: 1
oa_version: Published Version
publication: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
publication_identifier:
eissn:
- 2397-3722
publication_status: published
publisher: Springer Nature
quality_controlled: '1'
scopus_import: '1'
status: public
title: An assessment of the ENSO-monsoon teleconnection in a warming climate
tmp:
image: /images/cc_by.png
legal_code_url: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode
name: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (CC-BY 4.0)
short: CC BY (4.0)
type: journal_article
user_id: 4359f0d1-fa6c-11eb-b949-802e58b17ae8
volume: 6
year: '2023'
...