---
DOAJ_listed: '1'
OA_place: publisher
OA_type: gold
PlanS_conform: '1'
_id: '20098'
abstract:
- lang: eng
  text: Climate change is causing wildfires to become more frequent and intense. While
    predicting burned areas using bioclimatic and anthropogenic factors is an active
    research area, few studies have examined what drives the economic damages of wildfires.
    Our study aims to fill this gap by analyzing key factors influencing global economic
    wildfire damages and projecting future damages under three shared socioeconomic
    pathways (SSPs). We apply regression analyses to identify significant predictors
    of economic wildfire damages at country levels and use the fitted model to project
    future damages under SSP126, SSP245, and SSP370. Results show that the human vulnerability
    index (HVI), reflecting socioeconomic conditions, is the strongest predictor of
    historical wildfire damages, followed by water vapor pressure deficit during the
    fire season and population density around forested areas. We found high population
    density to be associated with lower damages. These findings contrast with studies
    of burned areas, where climate factors are more dominant. Our model projects that
    by 2070, average global economic wildfire damages will be three times higher under
    SSP370 than SSP126. Our model also shows that following SSP126 not only reduces
    wildfire damages but also lessens the inequalities in damage distribution across
    countries. This pathway’s dual focus on equitable socioeconomic progress and climate
    action potentially enhances a country’s resilience that helps mitigate wildfire
    damages. Our analyses also indicate that strong socioeconomic development can
    offset wildfire damages associated with climate hazards, although this is less
    certain under SSP370. SSP126’s integrated approach improves both socioeconomic
    conditions and limits global warming, providing substantial benefits to less developed
    countries while still reducing damages in developed nations, despite their already
    low HVI scores. Our work complements existing research on burned areas and underscores
    the importance of sustainable development and international collaboration in reducing
    the economic damages of wildfires.
acknowledgement: We thank Marina Andrijevic, Giacomo Falchetta, Samuel Lüthi, Caroline
  Muller, Carl Schleussner, and Adriano Vinca for providing useful ideas and feedback
  for this work. YLH is supported by funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020
  research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska‐Curie Grant No. 101034413.
  EB, MW, and YQ are supported by the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and
  innovation programme under Grant Agreement No. 101081369 (SPARCCLE). We also thank
  the two anonymous reviewers for providing helpful feedback that greatly improved
  this manuscript.
article_number: '035005'
article_processing_charge: Yes
article_type: original
author:
- first_name: Yi-Ling
  full_name: Hwong, Yi-Ling
  id: 1217aa61-4dd1-11ec-9ac3-f2ba3f17ee22
  last_name: Hwong
  orcid: 0000-0001-9281-3479
- first_name: Edward
  full_name: Byers, Edward
  last_name: Byers
- first_name: Michaela
  full_name: Werning, Michaela
  last_name: Werning
- first_name: Yann
  full_name: Quilcaille, Yann
  last_name: Quilcaille
citation:
  ama: 'Hwong Y-L, Byers E, Werning M, Quilcaille Y. Sustainable development key to
    limiting climate change-driven wildfire damages. <i>Environmental Research: Climate</i>.
    2025;4(3). doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/adec11">10.1088/2752-5295/adec11</a>'
  apa: 'Hwong, Y.-L., Byers, E., Werning, M., &#38; Quilcaille, Y. (2025). Sustainable
    development key to limiting climate change-driven wildfire damages. <i>Environmental
    Research: Climate</i>. IOP Publishing. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/adec11">https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/adec11</a>'
  chicago: 'Hwong, Yi-Ling, Edward Byers, Michaela Werning, and Yann Quilcaille. “Sustainable
    Development Key to Limiting Climate Change-Driven Wildfire Damages.” <i>Environmental
    Research: Climate</i>. IOP Publishing, 2025. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/adec11">https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/adec11</a>.'
  ieee: 'Y.-L. Hwong, E. Byers, M. Werning, and Y. Quilcaille, “Sustainable development
    key to limiting climate change-driven wildfire damages,” <i>Environmental Research:
    Climate</i>, vol. 4, no. 3. IOP Publishing, 2025.'
  ista: 'Hwong Y-L, Byers E, Werning M, Quilcaille Y. 2025. Sustainable development
    key to limiting climate change-driven wildfire damages. Environmental Research:
    Climate. 4(3), 035005.'
  mla: 'Hwong, Yi-Ling, et al. “Sustainable Development Key to Limiting Climate Change-Driven
    Wildfire Damages.” <i>Environmental Research: Climate</i>, vol. 4, no. 3, 035005,
    IOP Publishing, 2025, doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/adec11">10.1088/2752-5295/adec11</a>.'
  short: 'Y.-L. Hwong, E. Byers, M. Werning, Y. Quilcaille, Environmental Research:
    Climate 4 (2025).'
corr_author: '1'
date_created: 2025-07-31T14:03:16Z
date_published: 2025-07-15T00:00:00Z
date_updated: 2025-08-04T07:46:33Z
day: '15'
ddc:
- '550'
department:
- _id: CaMu
doi: 10.1088/2752-5295/adec11
ec_funded: 1
file:
- access_level: open_access
  checksum: ca679496767021e792b0378c48fdee8c
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  creator: dernst
  date_created: 2025-08-04T07:38:14Z
  date_updated: 2025-08-04T07:38:14Z
  file_id: '20108'
  file_name: 2025_EnvironResearchClimate_Hwong.pdf
  file_size: 2807041
  relation: main_file
  success: 1
file_date_updated: 2025-08-04T07:38:14Z
has_accepted_license: '1'
intvolume: '         4'
issue: '3'
language:
- iso: eng
license: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
month: '07'
oa: 1
oa_version: Published Version
project:
- _id: fc2ed2f7-9c52-11eb-aca3-c01059dda49c
  call_identifier: H2020
  grant_number: '101034413'
  name: 'IST-BRIDGE: International postdoctoral program'
publication: 'Environmental Research: Climate'
publication_identifier:
  eissn:
  - 2752-5295
publication_status: published
publisher: IOP Publishing
quality_controlled: '1'
related_material:
  record:
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    relation: research_data
    status: public
scopus_import: '1'
status: public
title: Sustainable development key to limiting climate change-driven wildfire damages
tmp:
  image: /images/cc_by.png
  legal_code_url: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode
  name: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (CC-BY 4.0)
  short: CC BY (4.0)
type: journal_article
user_id: 2DF688A6-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87
volume: 4
year: '2025'
...