@article{21217,
  abstract     = {This study investigates the mechanisms driving clustered convection and the breakdown of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over the Western Pacific Warm Pool using high‐resolution cloud‐resolving simulations and machine‐learning sensitivity experiments. Results show that ITCZ breakdown episodes, marked by spatially homogeneous convection and weakened meridional moisture gradients, are triggered primarily by anomalous moisture advection linked to the equatorial Rossby‐wave activity. While large‐scale moisture advection regulates the background convective state strongly, it is the surface and low‐level meridional winds that dominate transitions between clustered and random convection. Simulations demonstrate that moisture alone can sustain convective clustering, but breakdown episodes are more persistent and widespread when coupled with southerly meridional advection. These findings confirm that wave‐driven advection acts as a regulatory mechanism, periodically disrupting convective clustering and reshaping the meridional moisture gradient. This modulation of organization by wave‐induced breakdown events is critical for understanding tropical convection variability and its implications for the climate system.},
  author       = {Casallas Garcia, Alejandro and Mark Tompkins, Adrian and Muller, Caroline J},
  issn         = {1477-870X},
  journal      = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
  publisher    = {Wiley},
  title        = {{Moisture and wind effects of Rossby waves on Western Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone breakdown events}},
  doi          = {10.1002/qj.70131},
  year         = {2026},
}

@article{18605,
  abstract     = {The response of clouds and moist-convective processes to heat loss to space by long-wave radiative cooling is an important feedback in the Earth's atmosphere. It is known that moist convection increases roughly in equilibrium with radiative cooling, an assumption often made in simplified models of the tropical atmosphere. In this study, we use an idealised two-dimensional model of the atmosphere introduced by Vallis et. al. and incorporate a bulk-cooling term, which is an idealisation of radiative cooling in the atmosphere. We comment briefly on the static stability of the system to dry and moist convection and characteris its moist convective response to changes in the bulk cooling. We find that, while the clear-sky regions of the model respond directly to the change in the cooling term, the regions dominated by moist convective plumes are insensitive to changes in cooling. Similar to previous findings from cloud-resolving models, we too find in our idealised setting that the majority of the increase in convection occurs via an increase in the areal coverage of convection, rather than its intensity. We argue that these small-scale convective processes are an upper bound on how quickly convective intensity can change to stay in equilibrium with radiative cooling.},
  author       = {Agasthya, Lokahith N and Muller, Caroline J and Cheve, Mathis},
  issn         = {1477-870X},
  journal      = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
  number       = {766},
  publisher    = {Wiley},
  title        = {{Moist convective scaling: Insights from an idealised model}},
  doi          = {10.1002/qj.4902},
  volume       = {151},
  year         = {2025},
}

@article{20590,
  abstract     = {Moist convection is a fundamental process occurring in the Earth's atmosphere. It plays a central role in the weather and climate of the Tropics, where, to first order, the heating of the atmosphere by convection is in balance with the cooling of the atmosphere by the emission of radiation to outer space. In this study, we use a cloud-resolving model in radiative–convective equilibrium with an imposed constant rate of radiative cooling and study the response of moist convection to varying this rate of radiative cooling. In particular, we study two types of simulation: varying air temperature (VAT) simulations, where the air temperature is allowed to adjust to the imposed radiative cooling, and constant air temperature (CAT) simulations, where the surface temperature is tuned to ensure that the atmospheric temperature profile in the domain is constant. We recover the previously known result that, in response to increasing radiative cooling, the area of convection expands rapidly, while the intensity of convection does not change. We find that this response is explained by the increased boundary-layer variability in simulations with greater radiative cooling, which compensates for the decreasing temperature by adding a larger initial velocity close to the cloud base. We also propose a fundamental scaling of the non-dimensional cumulus mass flux in moist convection, which is robust across models of different complexity. We aim to bridge the gap between highly idealised prototypes of moist convection, such as the “Rainy–Bénard convection” introduced by Vallis et al., and comprehensive cloud-resolving models.},
  author       = {Agasthya, Lokahith N and Muller, Caroline J},
  issn         = {1477-870X},
  journal      = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
  publisher    = {Wiley},
  title        = {{Moist convection and radiative cooling: Dynamical response and scaling}},
  doi          = {10.1002/qj.70044},
  year         = {2025},
}