---
OA_place: publisher
OA_type: hybrid
PlanS_conform: '1'
_id: '20480'
abstract:
- lang: eng
text: Recent studies have argued that air temperatures over many mountain glaciers
are decoupled from their surroundings, leading to a local cooling which could
slow down melting. Here we use a compilation of on-glacier meteorological observations
to assess the extent to which this relationship changes under warming. Statistical
modelling of the potential temperature decoupling of the world’s mountain glaciers
indicates that currently glacier boundary layers warm ~0.83 °C on average for
every degree of ambient temperature rise. Future projections under shared socioeconomic
pathway (SSP) climate scenarios SSP 2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5 indicate that decoupling,
and thus relative cooling over glaciers, is maximized during the 2020s and 2030s,
before widespread glacier retreat acts to recouple above-glacier air temperatures
with its surroundings. This nonlinear feedback will lead to an increased sensitivity
to warming from midcentury, with glaciers losing their capacity to affect the
local climate and cool themselves.
acknowledgement: This work was funded by the EU Horizon 2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie
Actions grant 101026058. T.E.S. also acknowledges funding from the EU Horizon 2020
Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement no. 101034413. We acknowledge funding from
the European Research Council under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and
innovation programme grant agreement no. 772751, RAVEN, ‘Rapid mass losses of debris-covered
glaciers in High Mountain Asia’ and from the Swiss National Science Foundation (ASCENT
Project 189890). L.C. carried out work within the RETURN Extended Partnership and
received funding from the European Union Next-Generation EU (National Recovery and
Resilience Plan—NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.3—D.D. 1243 2/8/2022,
PE0000005). We acknowledge the dedicated collection of field data and the kind provision
of data from many weather stations around the world (details, references and acknowledgements
in Supplementary Table 1). Open access funding provided by Institute of Science
and Technology (IST Austria).
article_processing_charge: Yes (via OA deal)
article_type: original
author:
- first_name: Thomas
full_name: Shaw, Thomas
id: 3caa3f91-1f03-11ee-96ce-e0e553054d6e
last_name: Shaw
orcid: 0000-0001-7640-6152
- first_name: Evan S.
full_name: Miles, Evan S.
last_name: Miles
- first_name: Michael
full_name: McCarthy, Michael
id: 22a2674a-61ce-11ee-94b5-d18813baf16f
last_name: McCarthy
- first_name: Pascal
full_name: Buri, Pascal
last_name: Buri
- first_name: Nicolas
full_name: Guyennon, Nicolas
last_name: Guyennon
- first_name: Franco
full_name: Salerno, Franco
last_name: Salerno
- first_name: Luca
full_name: Carturan, Luca
last_name: Carturan
- first_name: Benjamin
full_name: Brock, Benjamin
last_name: Brock
- first_name: Francesca
full_name: Pellicciotti, Francesca
id: b28f055a-81ea-11ed-b70c-a9fe7f7b0e70
last_name: Pellicciotti
orcid: 0000-0002-5554-8087
citation:
ama: Shaw T, Miles ES, McCarthy M, et al. Mountain glaciers recouple to atmospheric
warming over the twenty-first century. Nature Climate Change. 2025;15:1212-1218.
doi:10.1038/s41558-025-02449-0
apa: Shaw, T., Miles, E. S., McCarthy, M., Buri, P., Guyennon, N., Salerno, F.,
… Pellicciotti, F. (2025). Mountain glaciers recouple to atmospheric warming over
the twenty-first century. Nature Climate Change. Springer Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02449-0
chicago: Shaw, Thomas, Evan S. Miles, Michael McCarthy, Pascal Buri, Nicolas Guyennon,
Franco Salerno, Luca Carturan, Benjamin Brock, and Francesca Pellicciotti. “Mountain
Glaciers Recouple to Atmospheric Warming over the Twenty-First Century.” Nature
Climate Change. Springer Nature, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02449-0.
ieee: T. Shaw et al., “Mountain glaciers recouple to atmospheric warming
over the twenty-first century,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 15. Springer
Nature, pp. 1212–1218, 2025.
ista: Shaw T, Miles ES, McCarthy M, Buri P, Guyennon N, Salerno F, Carturan L, Brock
B, Pellicciotti F. 2025. Mountain glaciers recouple to atmospheric warming over
the twenty-first century. Nature Climate Change. 15, 1212–1218.
mla: Shaw, Thomas, et al. “Mountain Glaciers Recouple to Atmospheric Warming over
the Twenty-First Century.” Nature Climate Change, vol. 15, Springer Nature,
2025, pp. 1212–18, doi:10.1038/s41558-025-02449-0.
short: T. Shaw, E.S. Miles, M. McCarthy, P. Buri, N. Guyennon, F. Salerno, L. Carturan,
B. Brock, F. Pellicciotti, Nature Climate Change 15 (2025) 1212–1218.
corr_author: '1'
date_created: 2025-10-16T13:12:49Z
date_published: 2025-11-01T00:00:00Z
date_updated: 2026-01-05T13:36:23Z
day: '01'
ddc:
- '550'
department:
- _id: FrPe
doi: 10.1038/s41558-025-02449-0
ec_funded: 1
external_id:
isi:
- '001591762900001'
file:
- access_level: open_access
checksum: 2d79c3fa263999a9f921496430b101e3
content_type: application/pdf
creator: dernst
date_created: 2026-01-05T13:36:14Z
date_updated: 2026-01-05T13:36:14Z
file_id: '20955'
file_name: 2025_NatureClimateChange_Shaw.pdf
file_size: 2985402
relation: main_file
success: 1
file_date_updated: 2026-01-05T13:36:14Z
has_accepted_license: '1'
intvolume: ' 15'
isi: 1
language:
- iso: eng
license: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
month: '11'
oa: 1
oa_version: Published Version
page: 1212-1218
project:
- _id: fc2ed2f7-9c52-11eb-aca3-c01059dda49c
call_identifier: H2020
grant_number: '101034413'
name: 'IST-BRIDGE: International postdoctoral program'
publication: Nature Climate Change
publication_identifier:
eissn:
- 1758-6798
issn:
- 1758-678X
publication_status: published
publisher: Springer Nature
quality_controlled: '1'
status: public
title: Mountain glaciers recouple to atmospheric warming over the twenty-first century
tmp:
image: /images/cc_by.png
legal_code_url: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode
name: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (CC-BY 4.0)
short: CC BY (4.0)
type: journal_article
user_id: 2DF688A6-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87
volume: 15
year: '2025'
...
---
OA_type: closed access
_id: '22526'
abstract:
- lang: eng
text: Climate change can reduce surface-water supply by enhancing evapotranspiration
in forested mountains, especially during heatwaves. We investigate this ‘drought
paradox’ for the European Alps using a 1,212-station database and hyper-resolution
ecohydrological simulations to quantify blue (runoff) and green (evapotranspiration)
water fluxes. During the 2003 heatwave, evapotranspiration in large areas over
the Alps was above average despite low precipitation, amplifying the runoff deficit
by 32% in the most runoff-productive areas (1,300–3,000 m above sea level). A
3 °C air temperature increase could enhance annual evapotranspiration by up to
100 mm (45 mm on average), which would reduce annual runoff at a rate similar
to a 3% precipitation decrease. This suggests that green-water feedbacks—which
are often poorly represented in large-scale model simulations—pose an additional
threat to water resources, especially in dry summers. Despite uncertainty in the
validation of the hyper-resolution ecohydrological modelling with observations,
this approach permits more realistic predictions of mountain region water availability.
article_processing_charge: No
article_type: original
author:
- first_name: Theodoros
full_name: Mastrotheodoros, Theodoros
last_name: Mastrotheodoros
- first_name: Christoforos
full_name: Pappas, Christoforos
last_name: Pappas
- first_name: Peter
full_name: Molnar, Peter
last_name: Molnar
- first_name: Paolo
full_name: Burlando, Paolo
last_name: Burlando
- first_name: Gabriele
full_name: Manoli, Gabriele
last_name: Manoli
- first_name: Juraj
full_name: Parajka, Juraj
last_name: Parajka
- first_name: Riccardo
full_name: Rigon, Riccardo
last_name: Rigon
- first_name: Borbala
full_name: Szeles, Borbala
last_name: Szeles
- first_name: Michele
full_name: Bottazzi, Michele
last_name: Bottazzi
- first_name: Panagiotis
full_name: Hadjidoukas, Panagiotis
last_name: Hadjidoukas
- first_name: Simone
full_name: Fatichi, Simone
id: cf8e546b-a9b0-11f0-a43b-aa89ed1b56d6
last_name: Fatichi
citation:
ama: Mastrotheodoros T, Pappas C, Molnar P, et al. More green and less blue water
in the Alps during warmer summers. Nature Climate Change. 2020;10:155-161.
doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0676-5
apa: Mastrotheodoros, T., Pappas, C., Molnar, P., Burlando, P., Manoli, G., Parajka,
J., … Fatichi, S. (2020). More green and less blue water in the Alps during warmer
summers. Nature Climate Change. Springer Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0676-5
chicago: Mastrotheodoros, Theodoros, Christoforos Pappas, Peter Molnar, Paolo Burlando,
Gabriele Manoli, Juraj Parajka, Riccardo Rigon, et al. “More Green and Less Blue
Water in the Alps during Warmer Summers.” Nature Climate Change. Springer
Nature, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0676-5.
ieee: T. Mastrotheodoros et al., “More green and less blue water in the Alps
during warmer summers,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 10. Springer Nature,
pp. 155–161, 2020.
ista: Mastrotheodoros T, Pappas C, Molnar P, Burlando P, Manoli G, Parajka J, Rigon
R, Szeles B, Bottazzi M, Hadjidoukas P, Fatichi S. 2020. More green and less blue
water in the Alps during warmer summers. Nature Climate Change. 10, 155–161.
mla: Mastrotheodoros, Theodoros, et al. “More Green and Less Blue Water in the Alps
during Warmer Summers.” Nature Climate Change, vol. 10, Springer Nature,
2020, pp. 155–61, doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0676-5.
short: T. Mastrotheodoros, C. Pappas, P. Molnar, P. Burlando, G. Manoli, J. Parajka,
R. Rigon, B. Szeles, M. Bottazzi, P. Hadjidoukas, S. Fatichi, Nature Climate Change
10 (2020) 155–161.
das_tickbox: '1'
date_created: 2026-07-27T12:30:24Z
date_published: 2020-02-01T00:00:00Z
date_updated: 2026-08-07T09:15:51Z
day: '01'
doi: 10.1038/s41558-019-0676-5
extern: '1'
intvolume: ' 10'
language:
- iso: eng
month: '02'
oa_version: None
page: 155-161
publication: Nature Climate Change
publication_identifier:
eissn:
- 1758-6798
issn:
- 1758-678X
publication_status: published
publisher: Springer Nature
quality_controlled: '1'
scopus_import: '1'
status: public
title: More green and less blue water in the Alps during warmer summers
type: journal_article
user_id: ba8df636-2132-11f1-aed0-ed93e2281fdd
volume: 10
year: '2020'
...
---
_id: '9143'
abstract:
- lang: eng
text: Understanding and predicting the response of the hydrological cycle to climate
change is a major challenge with important societal implications. Much progress
has been made in understanding the response of global average precipitation by
considering the energy balances of the atmosphere and the surface1,2,3,4,5,6.
This energetic perspective reveals that changes in temperature, greenhouse gases,
aerosols, solar forcing and cloud feedbacks can all affect the global average
rate of precipitation5,7,8,9,10,11. Local precipitation changes have conventionally
been analysed using the water vapour budget, but here we show that the energetic
approach can be extended to local changes in precipitation by including changes
in horizontal energy transport. In simulations of twenty-first century climate
change, this energy transport accounts for much of the spatial variability in
precipitation change. We show that changes in radiative and surface sensible heat
fluxes are a guide to the local precipitation response over land and at large
scales, but not at small scales over the ocean, where cloud and water vapour radiative
feedbacks dampen the response. The energetic approach described here helps bridge
the gap between our understanding of global and regional precipitation changes.
It could be applied to better understand the response of regional precipitation
to different radiative forcings, including geo-engineering schemes, as well as
to understand the differences between the fast and slow responses of regional
precipitation to such forcings.
article_processing_charge: No
article_type: original
author:
- first_name: Caroline J
full_name: Muller, Caroline J
id: f978ccb0-3f7f-11eb-b193-b0e2bd13182b
last_name: Muller
orcid: 0000-0001-5836-5350
- first_name: P. A.
full_name: O’Gorman, P. A.
last_name: O’Gorman
citation:
ama: Muller CJ, O’Gorman PA. An energetic perspective on the regional response of
precipitation to climate change. Nature Climate Change. 2011;1(5):266-271.
doi:10.1038/nclimate1169
apa: Muller, C. J., & O’Gorman, P. A. (2011). An energetic perspective on the
regional response of precipitation to climate change. Nature Climate Change.
Springer Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1169
chicago: Muller, Caroline J, and P. A. O’Gorman. “An Energetic Perspective on the
Regional Response of Precipitation to Climate Change.” Nature Climate Change.
Springer Nature, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1169.
ieee: C. J. Muller and P. A. O’Gorman, “An energetic perspective on the regional
response of precipitation to climate change,” Nature Climate Change, vol.
1, no. 5. Springer Nature, pp. 266–271, 2011.
ista: Muller CJ, O’Gorman PA. 2011. An energetic perspective on the regional response
of precipitation to climate change. Nature Climate Change. 1(5), 266–271.
mla: Muller, Caroline J., and P. A. O’Gorman. “An Energetic Perspective on the Regional
Response of Precipitation to Climate Change.” Nature Climate Change, vol.
1, no. 5, Springer Nature, 2011, pp. 266–71, doi:10.1038/nclimate1169.
short: C.J. Muller, P.A. O’Gorman, Nature Climate Change 1 (2011) 266–271.
date_created: 2021-02-15T14:39:29Z
date_published: 2011-07-24T00:00:00Z
date_updated: 2022-01-24T13:52:11Z
day: '24'
doi: 10.1038/nclimate1169
extern: '1'
intvolume: ' 1'
issue: '5'
language:
- iso: eng
month: '07'
oa_version: None
page: 266-271
publication: Nature Climate Change
publication_identifier:
issn:
- 1758-678X
- 1758-6798
publication_status: published
publisher: Springer Nature
quality_controlled: '1'
status: public
title: An energetic perspective on the regional response of precipitation to climate
change
type: journal_article
user_id: 8b945eb4-e2f2-11eb-945a-df72226e66a9
volume: 1
year: '2011'
...