@article{22521,
  abstract     = {A fully distributed hydrological analysis at scales significant for water management for present-day, and
projected future climate conditions is presented for a catchment in the Alps. We selected the upper Rhone
basin (Switzerland) as a test case for understanding anthropogenic impacts including climate change on
water resources and flood risk in the Alpine area. The upper Rhone basin contains reservoirs, river diversions and irrigated areas offering the opportunity to study the interaction between climate change effects
and hydraulic infrastructure. Anthropogenic disturbances of the flow regime were implemented in detail
in the hydrological analysis. We downscaled climate model realizations using a methodology that
accounts for the uncertainty in climate change projections related to the stochastic variability of precipitation and air temperature. We showed how climate change effects on streamflow propagate from high
elevation headwater catchments to the river in the main valley by analyzing changes in several hydrological metrics and at various temporal scales across 297 control sections. Changes in the natural hydrological regime imposed by the existing hydraulic infrastructure are likely larger than climate change
signals expected by the middle of the 21st century in most of the river network. Despite a strong uncertainty induced by stochastic climate variability, we identified an elevational dependence of climate
change impacts with a severe reduction in streamflow due to the missing contribution of water from
ice melt at high-elevation and a dampened effect downstream. Reduced ice cover and ice melt are likely
to have significant implications for hydropower production. The impacts can emerge without any additional climate warming. A decrease of August–September discharge and an increase of hourly and daily
maximum flows appear as plausible projected change for the most part of the catchment. However, it is
unlikely that major changes in total runoff for the entire upper Rhone basin will occur in the next four
decades.},
  author       = {Fatichi, Simone and Rimkus, S. and Burlando, P. and Bordoy, R. and Molnar, P.},
  issn         = {1879-2707},
  journal      = {Journal of Hydrology},
  keywords     = {Climate change, Water resources, Stochastic approaches, Ice melt, Alps, Hydrological modeling},
  pages        = {362--382},
  publisher    = {Elsevier},
  title        = {{High-resolution distributed analysis of climate and anthropogenic changes on the hydrology of an Alpine catchment}},
  doi          = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.03.036},
  volume       = {525},
  year         = {2015},
}