---
OA_place: repository
OA_type: green
_id: '21322'
abstract:
- lang: eng
text: Habitat fragmentation poses a significant risk to population survival, causing
both demographic stochasticity and genetic drift within local populations to increase,
thereby increasing genetic load. Higher load causes population numbers to decline,
which reduces the efficiency of selection and further increases load, resulting
in a positive feedback that may drive entire populations to extinction. Here,
we investigate this eco-evolutionary feedback in a metapopulation consisting of
local demes connected via migration, with individuals subject to deleterious mutation
at a large number of loci. We first analyze the determinants of load under soft
selection, where population sizes are fixed, and then build on this to understand
hard selection, where population sizes and load coevolve. We show that under soft
selection, very little gene flow (less than one migrant per generation) is enough
to prevent fixation of deleterious alleles. By contrast, much higher levels of
migration are required to mitigate load and prevent extinction when selection
is hard, with critical migration thresholds for metapopulation persistence increasing
sharply as the genome-wide deleterious mutation rate becomes comparable to the
baseline population growth rate. Moreover, critical migration thresholds are highest
if deleterious mutations have intermediate selection coefficients but lower if
alleles are predominantly recessive rather than additive (due to more efficient
purging of recessive load within local populations). Our analysis is based on
a combination of analytical approximations and simulations, allowing for a more
comprehensive understanding of the factors influencing load and extinction in
fragmented populations.
acknowledgement: 'This research was partially funded by the Austrian Science Fund
(FWF P-32896B) and DOC Fellowships of the Austrian Academy of Sciences: grants 26380
(O.O.) and 26293 (K.K.). We thank Nick Barton for useful comments on the chapter
in O.O.’s thesis that led to this article.'
article_processing_charge: No
article_type: original
author:
- first_name: Oluwafunmilola O
full_name: Olusanya, Oluwafunmilola O
id: 41AD96DC-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87
last_name: Olusanya
orcid: 0000-0003-1971-8314
- first_name: Kseniia
full_name: Khudiakova, Kseniia
id: 4E6DC800-AE37-11E9-AC72-31CAE5697425
last_name: Khudiakova
orcid: 0000-0002-6246-1465
- first_name: Himani
full_name: Sachdeva, Himani
id: 42377A0A-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87
last_name: Sachdeva
citation:
ama: Olusanya OO, Khudiakova K, Sachdeva H. Genetic load, eco-evolutionary feedback,
and extinction in metapopulations. The American Naturalist. 2025;205(6):617-636.
doi:10.1086/735562
apa: Olusanya, O. O., Khudiakova, K., & Sachdeva, H. (2025). Genetic load, eco-evolutionary
feedback, and extinction in metapopulations. The American Naturalist. University
of Chicago Press. https://doi.org/10.1086/735562
chicago: Olusanya, Oluwafunmilola O, Kseniia Khudiakova, and Himani Sachdeva. “Genetic
Load, Eco-Evolutionary Feedback, and Extinction in Metapopulations.” The American
Naturalist. University of Chicago Press, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1086/735562.
ieee: O. O. Olusanya, K. Khudiakova, and H. Sachdeva, “Genetic load, eco-evolutionary
feedback, and extinction in metapopulations,” The American Naturalist,
vol. 205, no. 6. University of Chicago Press, pp. 617–636, 2025.
ista: Olusanya OO, Khudiakova K, Sachdeva H. 2025. Genetic load, eco-evolutionary
feedback, and extinction in metapopulations. The American Naturalist. 205(6),
617–636.
mla: Olusanya, Oluwafunmilola O., et al. “Genetic Load, Eco-Evolutionary Feedback,
and Extinction in Metapopulations.” The American Naturalist, vol. 205,
no. 6, University of Chicago Press, 2025, pp. 617–36, doi:10.1086/735562.
short: O.O. Olusanya, K. Khudiakova, H. Sachdeva, The American Naturalist 205 (2025)
617–636.
corr_author: '1'
date_created: 2026-02-18T10:47:18Z
date_published: 2025-06-01T00:00:00Z
date_updated: 2026-04-07T08:45:14Z
day: '01'
department:
- _id: JaMa
- _id: NiBa
doi: 10.1086/735562
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- iso: eng
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oa_version: Preprint
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pmid: 1
project:
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grant_number: P32896
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grant_number: '26380'
name: Polygenic Adaptation in a Metapopulation
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publication: The American Naturalist
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title: Genetic load, eco-evolutionary feedback, and extinction in metapopulations
type: journal_article
user_id: ba8df636-2132-11f1-aed0-ed93e2281fdd
volume: 205
year: '2025'
...
---
OA_place: publisher
_id: '14711'
abstract:
- lang: eng
text: "In nature, different species find their niche in a range of environments,
each with its unique characteristics. While some thrive in uniform (homogeneous)
landscapes where environmental conditions stay relatively consistent across space,
others traverse the complexities of spatially heterogeneous terrains. Comprehending
how species are distributed and how they interact within these landscapes holds
the key to gaining insights into their evolutionary dynamics while also informing
conservation and management strategies.\r\n\r\nFor species inhabiting heterogeneous
landscapes, when the rate of dispersal is low compared to spatial fluctuations
in selection pressure, localized adaptations may emerge. Such adaptation in response
to varying selection strengths plays an important role in the persistence of populations
in our rapidly changing world. Hence, species in nature are continuously in a
struggle to adapt to local environmental conditions, to ensure their continued
survival. Natural populations can often adapt in time scales short enough for
evolutionary changes to influence ecological dynamics and vice versa, thereby
creating a feedback between evolution and demography. The analysis of this feedback
and the relative contributions of gene flow, demography, drift, and natural selection
to genetic variation and differentiation has remained a recurring theme in evolutionary
biology. Nevertheless, the effective role of these forces in maintaining variation
and shaping patterns of diversity is not fully understood. Even in homogeneous
environments devoid of local adaptations, such understanding remains elusive.
Understanding this feedback is crucial, for example in determining the conditions
under which extinction risk can be mitigated in peripheral populations subject
to deleterious mutation accumulation at the edges of species’ ranges\r\nas well
as in highly fragmented populations.\r\n\r\nIn this thesis we explore both uniform
and spatially heterogeneous metapopulations, investigating and providing theoretical
insights into the dynamics of local adaptation in the latter and examining the
dynamics of load and extinction as well as the impact of joint ecological and
evolutionary (eco-evolutionary) dynamics in the former. The thesis is divided
into 5 chapters.\r\n\r\nChapter 1 provides a general introduction into the subject
matter, clarifying concepts and ideas used throughout the thesis. In chapter 2,
we explore how fast a species distributed across a heterogeneous landscape adapts
to changing conditions marked by alterations in carrying capacity, selection pressure,
and migration rate.\r\n\r\nIn chapter 3, we investigate how migration selection
and drift influences adaptation and the maintenance of variation in a metapopulation
with three habitats, an extension of previous models of adaptation in two habitats.
We further develop analytical approximations for the critical threshold required
for polymorphism to persist.\r\n\r\nThe focus of chapter 4 of the thesis is on
understanding the interplay between ecology and evolution as coupled processes.
We investigate how eco-evolutionary feedback between migration, selection, drift,
and demography influences eco-evolutionary outcomes in marginal populations subject
to deleterious mutation accumulation. Using simulations as well as theoretical
approximations of the coupled dynamics of population size and allele frequency,
we analyze how gene flow from a large mainland source influences genetic load
and population size on an island (i.e., in a marginal population) under genetically
realistic assumptions. Analyses of this sort are important because small isolated
populations, are repeatedly affected by complex interactions between ecological
and evolutionary processes, which can lead to their death. Understanding these
interactions can therefore provide an insight into the conditions under which
extinction risk can be mitigated in peripheral populations thus, contributing
to conservation and restoration efforts.\r\n\r\nChapter 5 extends the analysis
in chapter 4 to consider the dynamics of load (due to deleterious mutation accumulation)
and extinction risk in a metapopulation. We explore the role of gene flow, selection,
and dominance on load and extinction risk and further pinpoint critical thresholds
required for metapopulation persistence.\r\n\r\nOverall this research contributes
to our understanding of ecological and evolutionary mechanisms that shape species’
persistence in fragmented landscapes, a crucial foundation for successful conservation
efforts and biodiversity management."
acknowledged_ssus:
- _id: SSU
alternative_title:
- ISTA Thesis
article_processing_charge: No
author:
- first_name: Oluwafunmilola O
full_name: Olusanya, Oluwafunmilola O
id: 41AD96DC-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87
last_name: Olusanya
orcid: 0000-0003-1971-8314
citation:
ama: Olusanya OO. Local adaptation, genetic load and extinction in metapopulations.
2024. doi:10.15479/at:ista:14711
apa: Olusanya, O. O. (2024). Local adaptation, genetic load and extinction in
metapopulations. Institute of Science and Technology Austria. https://doi.org/10.15479/at:ista:14711
chicago: Olusanya, Oluwafunmilola O. “Local Adaptation, Genetic Load and Extinction
in Metapopulations.” Institute of Science and Technology Austria, 2024. https://doi.org/10.15479/at:ista:14711.
ieee: O. O. Olusanya, “Local adaptation, genetic load and extinction in metapopulations,”
Institute of Science and Technology Austria, 2024.
ista: Olusanya OO. 2024. Local adaptation, genetic load and extinction in metapopulations.
Institute of Science and Technology Austria.
mla: Olusanya, Oluwafunmilola O. Local Adaptation, Genetic Load and Extinction
in Metapopulations. Institute of Science and Technology Austria, 2024, doi:10.15479/at:ista:14711.
short: O.O. Olusanya, Local Adaptation, Genetic Load and Extinction in Metapopulations,
Institute of Science and Technology Austria, 2024.
corr_author: '1'
date_created: 2023-12-26T22:49:53Z
date_published: 2024-01-19T00:00:00Z
date_updated: 2026-04-07T12:54:29Z
day: '19'
ddc:
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degree_awarded: PhD
department:
- _id: NiBa
- _id: GradSch
doi: 10.15479/at:ista:14711
ec_funded: 1
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oa_version: Published Version
page: '183'
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call_identifier: H2020
grant_number: '665385'
name: International IST Doctoral Program
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grant_number: P32896
name: Causes and consequences of population fragmentation
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grant_number: '26380'
name: Polygenic Adaptation in a Metapopulation
publication_identifier:
issn:
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publication_status: published
publisher: Institute of Science and Technology Austria
related_material:
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relation: part_of_dissertation
status: public
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status: public
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status: public
supervisor:
- first_name: Nicholas H
full_name: Barton, Nicholas H
id: 4880FE40-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87
last_name: Barton
orcid: 0000-0002-8548-5240
- first_name: Jitka
full_name: Polechova, Jitka
last_name: Polechova
- first_name: Himani
full_name: Sachdeva, Himani
last_name: Sachdeva
title: Local adaptation, genetic load and extinction in metapopulations
tmp:
image: /images/cc_by_nc_sa.png
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BY-NC-SA 4.0)
short: CC BY-NC-SA (4.0)
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user_id: ba8df636-2132-11f1-aed0-ed93e2281fdd
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...
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OA_place: repository
_id: '14732'
abstract:
- lang: eng
text: 'Fragmented landscapes pose a significant threat to the persistence of species
as they are highly susceptible to heightened risk of extinction due to the combined
effects of genetic and demographic factors such as genetic drift and demographic
stochasticity. This paper explores the intricate interplay between genetic load
and extinction risk within metapopulations with a focus on understanding the impact
of eco-evolutionary feedback mechanisms. We distinguish between two models of
selection: soft selection, characterised by subpopulations maintaining carrying
capacity despite load, and hard selection, where load can significantly affect
population size. Within the soft selection framework, we investigate the impact
of gene flow on genetic load at a single locus, while also considering the effect
of selection strength and dominance coefficient. We subsequently build on this
to examine how gene flow influences both population size and load under hard selection
as well as identify critical thresholds for metapopulation persistence. Our analysis
employs the diffusion, semi-deterministic and effective migration approximations.
Our findings reveal that under soft selection, even modest levels of migration
can significantly alleviate the burden of load. In sharp contrast, with hard selection,
a much higher degree of gene flow is required to mitigate load and prevent the
collapse of the metapopulation. Overall, this study sheds light into the crucial
role migration plays in shaping the dynamics of genetic load and extinction risk
in fragmented landscapes, offering valuable insights for conservation strategies
and the preservation of diversity in a changing world.'
article_processing_charge: No
author:
- first_name: Oluwafunmilola O
full_name: Olusanya, Oluwafunmilola O
id: 41AD96DC-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87
last_name: Olusanya
orcid: 0000-0003-1971-8314
- first_name: Kseniia
full_name: Khudiakova, Kseniia
id: 4E6DC800-AE37-11E9-AC72-31CAE5697425
last_name: Khudiakova
orcid: 0000-0002-6246-1465
- first_name: Himani
full_name: Sachdeva, Himani
id: 42377A0A-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87
last_name: Sachdeva
citation:
ama: Olusanya OO, Khudiakova K, Sachdeva H. Genetic load, eco-evolutionary feedback
and extinction in a metapopulation. bioRxiv. doi:10.1101/2023.12.02.569702
apa: Olusanya, O. O., Khudiakova, K., & Sachdeva, H. (n.d.). Genetic load, eco-evolutionary
feedback and extinction in a metapopulation. bioRxiv. https://doi.org/10.1101/2023.12.02.569702
chicago: Olusanya, Oluwafunmilola O, Kseniia Khudiakova, and Himani Sachdeva. “Genetic
Load, Eco-Evolutionary Feedback and Extinction in a Metapopulation.” BioRxiv,
n.d. https://doi.org/10.1101/2023.12.02.569702.
ieee: O. O. Olusanya, K. Khudiakova, and H. Sachdeva, “Genetic load, eco-evolutionary
feedback and extinction in a metapopulation,” bioRxiv. .
ista: Olusanya OO, Khudiakova K, Sachdeva H. Genetic load, eco-evolutionary feedback
and extinction in a metapopulation. bioRxiv, 10.1101/2023.12.02.569702.
mla: Olusanya, Oluwafunmilola O., et al. “Genetic Load, Eco-Evolutionary Feedback
and Extinction in a Metapopulation.” BioRxiv, doi:10.1101/2023.12.02.569702.
short: O.O. Olusanya, K. Khudiakova, H. Sachdeva, BioRxiv (n.d.).
corr_author: '1'
date_created: 2024-01-04T09:35:54Z
date_published: 2023-12-04T00:00:00Z
date_updated: 2026-04-07T12:54:28Z
day: '04'
department:
- _id: NiBa
- _id: JaMa
doi: 10.1101/2023.12.02.569702
language:
- iso: eng
license: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
main_file_link:
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url: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.12.02.569702v1
month: '12'
oa: 1
oa_version: Preprint
project:
- _id: c08d3278-5a5b-11eb-8a69-fdb09b55f4b8
grant_number: P32896
name: Causes and consequences of population fragmentation
- _id: 34d33d68-11ca-11ed-8bc3-ec13763c0ca8
grant_number: '26293'
name: The impact of deleterious mutations on small populations
- _id: 34c872fe-11ca-11ed-8bc3-8534b82131e6
grant_number: '26380'
name: Polygenic Adaptation in a Metapopulation
publication: bioRxiv
publication_status: draft
related_material:
record:
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relation: dissertation_contains
status: public
status: public
title: Genetic load, eco-evolutionary feedback and extinction in a metapopulation
tmp:
image: /images/cc_by_nc_nd.png
legal_code_url: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/legalcode
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(CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)
short: CC BY-NC-ND (4.0)
type: preprint
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year: '2023'
...
---
_id: '10787'
abstract:
- lang: eng
text: "A species distributed across diverse environments may adapt to local conditions.
We ask how quickly such a species changes its range in response to changed conditions.
Szép et al. (Szép E, Sachdeva H, Barton NH. 2021 Polygenic local adaptation in
metapopulations: a stochastic eco-evolutionary model. Evolution75, 1030–1045 (doi:10.1111/evo.14210))
used the infinite island model to find the stationary distribution of allele frequencies
and deme sizes. We extend this to find how a metapopulation responds to changes
in carrying capacity, selection strength, or migration rate when deme sizes are
fixed. We further develop a ‘fixed-state’ approximation. Under this approximation,
polymorphism is only possible for a narrow range of habitat proportions when selection
is weak compared to drift, but for a much wider range otherwise. When rates of
selection or migration relative to drift change in a single deme of the metapopulation,
the population takes a time of order m−1 to reach the new equilibrium. However,
even with many loci, there can be substantial fluctuations in net adaptation,
because at each locus, alleles randomly get lost or fixed. Thus, in a finite metapopulation,
variation may gradually be lost by chance, even if it would persist in an infinite
metapopulation. When conditions change across the whole metapopulation, there
can be rapid change, which is predicted well by the fixed-state approximation.
This work helps towards an understanding of how metapopulations extend their range
across diverse environments.\r\nThis article is part of the theme issue ‘Species’
ranges in the face of changing environments (Part II)’."
acknowledgement: This research was partly funded by the Austrian Science Fund (FWF)
[FWF P-32896B].
article_processing_charge: No
article_type: original
author:
- first_name: Nicholas H
full_name: Barton, Nicholas H
id: 4880FE40-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87
last_name: Barton
orcid: 0000-0002-8548-5240
- first_name: Oluwafunmilola O
full_name: Olusanya, Oluwafunmilola O
id: 41AD96DC-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87
last_name: Olusanya
orcid: 0000-0003-1971-8314
citation:
ama: 'Barton NH, Olusanya OO. The response of a metapopulation to a changing environment.
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.
2022;377(1848). doi:10.1098/rstb.2021.0009'
apa: 'Barton, N. H., & Olusanya, O. O. (2022). The response of a metapopulation
to a changing environment. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society
B: Biological Sciences. The Royal Society. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2021.0009'
chicago: 'Barton, Nicholas H, and Oluwafunmilola O Olusanya. “The Response of a
Metapopulation to a Changing Environment.” Philosophical Transactions of the
Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. The Royal Society, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2021.0009.'
ieee: 'N. H. Barton and O. O. Olusanya, “The response of a metapopulation to a changing
environment,” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological
Sciences, vol. 377, no. 1848. The Royal Society, 2022.'
ista: 'Barton NH, Olusanya OO. 2022. The response of a metapopulation to a changing
environment. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.
377(1848).'
mla: 'Barton, Nicholas H., and Oluwafunmilola O. Olusanya. “The Response of a Metapopulation
to a Changing Environment.” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society
B: Biological Sciences, vol. 377, no. 1848, The Royal Society, 2022, doi:10.1098/rstb.2021.0009.'
short: 'N.H. Barton, O.O. Olusanya, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society
B: Biological Sciences 377 (2022).'
corr_author: '1'
date_created: 2022-02-21T16:08:10Z
date_published: 2022-04-11T00:00:00Z
date_updated: 2026-04-07T12:54:28Z
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ddc:
- '570'
department:
- _id: GradSch
- _id: NiBa
doi: 10.1098/rstb.2021.0009
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success: 1
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intvolume: ' 377'
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issue: '1848'
keyword:
- General Agricultural and Biological Sciences
- General Biochemistry
- Genetics and Molecular Biology
language:
- iso: eng
license: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
month: '04'
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grant_number: P32896
name: Causes and consequences of population fragmentation
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title: The response of a metapopulation to a changing environment
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user_id: c635000d-4b10-11ee-a964-aac5a93f6ac1
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...
---
_id: '10658'
abstract:
- lang: eng
text: We analyse how migration from a large mainland influences genetic load and
population numbers on an island, in a scenario where fitness-affecting variants
are unconditionally deleterious, and where numbers decline with increasing load.
Our analysis shows that migration can have qualitatively different effects, depending
on the total mutation target and fitness effects of deleterious variants. In particular,
we find that populations exhibit a genetic Allee effect across a wide range of
parameter combinations, when variants are partially recessive, cycling between
low-load (large-population) and high-load (sink) states. Increased migration reduces
load in the sink state (by increasing heterozygosity) but further inflates load
in the large-population state (by hindering purging). We identify various critical
parameter thresholds at which one or other stable state collapses, and discuss
how these thresholds are influenced by the genetic versus demographic effects
of migration. Our analysis is based on a ‘semi-deterministic’ analysis, which
accounts for genetic drift but neglects demographic stochasticity. We also compare
against simulations which account for both demographic stochasticity and drift.
Our results clarify the importance of gene flow as a key determinant of extinction
risk in peripheral populations, even in the absence of ecological gradients. This
article is part of the theme issue ‘Species’ ranges in the face of changing environments
(part I)’.
acknowledgement: This research was partly funded by the Austrian Science Fund (FWF)
(grant no. P-32896B).
article_number: '20210010'
article_processing_charge: No
article_type: original
author:
- first_name: Himani
full_name: Sachdeva, Himani
last_name: Sachdeva
- first_name: Oluwafunmilola O
full_name: Olusanya, Oluwafunmilola O
id: 41AD96DC-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87
last_name: Olusanya
orcid: 0000-0003-1971-8314
- first_name: Nicholas H
full_name: Barton, Nicholas H
id: 4880FE40-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87
last_name: Barton
orcid: 0000-0002-8548-5240
citation:
ama: 'Sachdeva H, Olusanya OO, Barton NH. Genetic load and extinction in peripheral
populations: The roles of migration, drift and demographic stochasticity. Philosophical
Transactions of the Royal Society B. 2022;377(1846). doi:10.1098/rstb.2021.0010'
apa: 'Sachdeva, H., Olusanya, O. O., & Barton, N. H. (2022). Genetic load and
extinction in peripheral populations: The roles of migration, drift and demographic
stochasticity. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B. The Royal
Society. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2021.0010'
chicago: 'Sachdeva, Himani, Oluwafunmilola O Olusanya, and Nicholas H Barton. “Genetic
Load and Extinction in Peripheral Populations: The Roles of Migration, Drift and
Demographic Stochasticity.” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society
B. The Royal Society, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2021.0010.'
ieee: 'H. Sachdeva, O. O. Olusanya, and N. H. Barton, “Genetic load and extinction
in peripheral populations: The roles of migration, drift and demographic stochasticity,”
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, vol. 377, no. 1846.
The Royal Society, 2022.'
ista: 'Sachdeva H, Olusanya OO, Barton NH. 2022. Genetic load and extinction in
peripheral populations: The roles of migration, drift and demographic stochasticity.
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B. 377(1846), 20210010.'
mla: 'Sachdeva, Himani, et al. “Genetic Load and Extinction in Peripheral Populations:
The Roles of Migration, Drift and Demographic Stochasticity.” Philosophical
Transactions of the Royal Society B, vol. 377, no. 1846, 20210010, The Royal
Society, 2022, doi:10.1098/rstb.2021.0010.'
short: H. Sachdeva, O.O. Olusanya, N.H. Barton, Philosophical Transactions of the
Royal Society B 377 (2022).
date_created: 2022-01-24T10:34:53Z
date_published: 2022-01-24T00:00:00Z
date_updated: 2026-04-07T12:54:28Z
day: '24'
ddc:
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department:
- _id: GradSch
- _id: NiBa
doi: 10.1098/rstb.2021.0010
external_id:
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pmid:
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title: 'Genetic load and extinction in peripheral populations: The roles of migration,
drift and demographic stochasticity'
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