[{"article_type":"original","doi":"10.1002/qj.70280","oa_version":"Published Version","ddc":["550"],"supplementarymaterial":"yes","abstract":[{"text":"Physical processes at play in the genesis and evolution of tropical cyclones are conducive to the formation of warm cores at their centres. When the warm anomaly is particularly large in the upper troposphere, it is referred to as a high-level warm core. Previous works documented the generation of high-level warm cores as a consequence of stratospheric air intrusion into the troposphere induced by the upper-level dynamics of a tropical cyclone. However, little attention has been given to their effects on the storm's subsequent evolution. It has been suggested that the presence of a high-level warm core can have opposite effects on tropical cyclone intensity: both strengthening and weakening have been described as possible consequences of its formation. In this study, we examine the role of high-level warm cores in the intensification and dissipation processes of tropical cyclones, as reproduced in numerical models of different complexities, namely the model “System for Atmospheric Modeling” (SAM) run under idealized conditions and the model Nonhydrostatic ICosahedral Atmospheric Model run under realistic conditions following the DYnamics of the Atmospheric general circulation Modeled On Non-hydrostatic Domains summer protocol. Our results confirm the hypothesis of a stratospheric origin behind the formation of high-level warm cores. Their initial role is shown to be an enhancement of storm intensity, by a lowering of the hydrostatic sea-level pressure (HSLP) associated with the presence of warm air aloft. However, as the warm anomaly intensifies and extends to lower levels, it also increases static stability in the air column, with the consequence of inhibiting convection and ultimately contributing to cyclone dissipation. These findings suggest that high-level warm cores play a dual role in the tropical cyclone life cycle, providing a stabilizing mechanism that can limit cyclone strength and longevity.","lang":"eng"}],"department":[{"_id":"CaMu"},{"_id":"GradSch"}],"das_tickbox":"1","title":"Stratospheric influence on tropical cyclone evolution","OA_type":"hybrid","quality_controlled":"1","main_file_link":[{"open_access":"1","url":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.70280"}],"day":"26","date_created":"2026-09-06T22:01:57Z","OA_place":"publisher","author":[{"last_name":"Davin","first_name":"Andrea","full_name":"Davin, Andrea"},{"last_name":"Charinti","id":"7f7cc04c-074c-11ed-af92-eb16afd85c75","full_name":"Charinti, Giousef Alexandros","first_name":"Giousef Alexandros"},{"first_name":"Caroline J","id":"f978ccb0-3f7f-11eb-b193-b0e2bd13182b","full_name":"Muller, Caroline J","orcid":"0000-0001-5836-5350","last_name":"Muller"},{"first_name":"Andrea","full_name":"Polesello, Andrea","id":"74c777f4-32da-11ee-b498-874db0835561","last_name":"Polesello"},{"last_name":"Pasquero","first_name":"Claudia","full_name":"Pasquero, Claudia"}],"project":[{"call_identifier":"H2020","grant_number":"805041","_id":"629205d8-2b32-11ec-9570-e1356ff73576","name":"Organization of CLoUdS, and implications of Tropical  cyclones and for the Energetics of the tropics, in current and waRming climate"}],"researchdata_availability":"upon request","type":"journal_article","ec_funded":1,"date_updated":"2026-09-09T12:43:30Z","article_number":"e70280","publication_status":"epub_ahead","status":"public","publication_identifier":{"eissn":["1477-870X"],"issn":["0035-9009"]},"publisher":"Wiley","month":"08","year":"2026","tmp":{"name":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (CC-BY 4.0)","legal_code_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode","short":"CC BY (4.0)","image":"/images/cc_by.png"},"publication":"Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society","_id":"22818","citation":{"short":"A. Davin, G.A. Charinti, C.J. Muller, A. Polesello, C. Pasquero, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (2026).","apa":"Davin, A., Charinti, G. A., Muller, C. J., Polesello, A., &#38; Pasquero, C. (2026). Stratospheric influence on tropical cyclone evolution. <i>Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society</i>. Wiley. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.70280\">https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.70280</a>","ista":"Davin A, Charinti GA, Muller CJ, Polesello A, Pasquero C. 2026. Stratospheric influence on tropical cyclone evolution. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society., e70280.","ama":"Davin A, Charinti GA, Muller CJ, Polesello A, Pasquero C. Stratospheric influence on tropical cyclone evolution. <i>Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society</i>. 2026. doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.70280\">10.1002/qj.70280</a>","chicago":"Davin, Andrea, Giousef Alexandros Charinti, Caroline J Muller, Andrea Polesello, and Claudia Pasquero. “Stratospheric Influence on Tropical Cyclone Evolution.” <i>Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society</i>. Wiley, 2026. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.70280\">https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.70280</a>.","mla":"Davin, Andrea, et al. “Stratospheric Influence on Tropical Cyclone Evolution.” <i>Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society</i>, e70280, Wiley, 2026, doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.70280\">10.1002/qj.70280</a>.","ieee":"A. Davin, G. A. Charinti, C. J. Muller, A. Polesello, and C. Pasquero, “Stratospheric influence on tropical cyclone evolution,” <i>Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society</i>. Wiley, 2026."},"article_processing_charge":"Yes (via OA deal)","acknowledgement":"The authors thank Tom Beucler, Hamish Ramsay, and two anonymous reviewers for insightful comments and constructive feedback on earlier versions of this work.\r\n\r\nThis work is partially funded by the National Recovery and Resilience Plan project TeRABIT (Terabit network for Research and Academic Big data in Italy—IR0000022—PNRRMissione4—Componente2—Investim ento3.1—CUPI53C21000370006) in the frame of the European Union—NextGenerationEU funding. C. Muller gratefully acknowledges funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (Project CLUSTER, Grant 805041). This work is an outcome of the project MIUR—Dipartimenti di Eccellenza 2023–2027.\r\n\r\nThis work used resources of the Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ) granted by its Scientific Steering Committee (WLA) under project bb1153. Open access publishing facilitated by Universita degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca, as part of the Wiley - CRUI-CARE agreement.","has_accepted_license":"1","oa":1,"user_id":"2DF688A6-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87","dataavailabilitystatement":"The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.","date_published":"2026-08-26T00:00:00Z","fulldoi":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.70280","scopus_import":"1","language":[{"iso":"eng"}]},{"ddc":["550"],"oa_version":"Published Version","PlanS_conform":"1","supplementarymaterial":"yes","doi":"10.1029/2025GL121307","article_type":"original","OA_type":"gold","quality_controlled":"1","department":[{"_id":"CaMu"},{"_id":"GradSch"}],"title":"Impact of upper-level warming on tropical cyclone intensity","das_tickbox":"1","abstract":[{"text":"Deep convection from tropical cyclones (TCs) can reach the height of the tropopause and as such an interaction between the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere is likely to occur. Such interactions have been reported in both numerical and observational studies, mainly showing that subsidence from the stratosphere into the eye of an intensifying storm leads to a high-level warm core. However, the effect of this upper-level warming on the intensity of the TCs is not yet well understood. In this study, we show that subsiding air from the stratosphere beyond subsidence in the eye is the reason for the upper-level warming in idealized simulations. We further show that it is possible to quantify the effects of the upper-level warming on the potential intensity of the TC. Finally, we conclude that overshooting convection into the stratosphere causes the observed subsidence, as both become more pronounced with increasing sea-surface temperatures (SST).","lang":"eng"}],"DOAJ_listed":"1","day":"16","corr_author":"1","type":"journal_article","intvolume":"        53","OA_place":"publisher","author":[{"last_name":"Charinti","full_name":"Charinti, Giousef Alexandros","id":"7f7cc04c-074c-11ed-af92-eb16afd85c75","first_name":"Giousef Alexandros"},{"first_name":"Andrea","full_name":"Davin, Andrea","last_name":"Davin"},{"last_name":"Polesello","first_name":"Andrea","id":"74c777f4-32da-11ee-b498-874db0835561","full_name":"Polesello, Andrea"},{"first_name":"Caroline J","full_name":"Muller, Caroline J","id":"f978ccb0-3f7f-11eb-b193-b0e2bd13182b","orcid":"0000-0001-5836-5350","last_name":"Muller"},{"full_name":"Pasquero, Claudia","first_name":"Claudia","last_name":"Pasquero"}],"project":[{"_id":"629205d8-2b32-11ec-9570-e1356ff73576","grant_number":"805041","name":"Organization of CLoUdS, and implications of Tropical  cyclones and for the Energetics of the tropics, in current and waRming climate","call_identifier":"H2020"}],"researchdata_availability":"yes","date_created":"2026-09-13T22:01:51Z","date_updated":"2026-09-15T12:38:32Z","ec_funded":1,"issue":"17","publication_identifier":{"issn":["0094-8276"],"eissn":["1944-8007"]},"status":"public","article_number":"e2025GL121307","publication_status":"published","_id":"22912","publication":"Geophysical Research Letters","tmp":{"name":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (CC-BY 4.0)","legal_code_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode","short":"CC BY (4.0)","image":"/images/cc_by.png"},"year":"2026","publisher":"Wiley","month":"09","fulldoi":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL121307","date_published":"2026-09-16T00:00:00Z","language":[{"iso":"eng"}],"scopus_import":"1","user_id":"2DF688A6-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87","dataavailabilitystatement":"The post‐processed simulation data and the analysis scripts are available on Figshare https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.30933764 (Charinti et al., 2025).","file":[{"access_level":"open_access","content_type":"application/pdf","file_id":"22931","date_updated":"2026-09-15T12:34:00Z","file_name":"2026_GeophysicalResearchLetters_Charinti.pdf","file_size":1277378,"creator":"dernst","date_created":"2026-09-15T12:34:00Z","success":1,"checksum":"8d1c470e4c2cb43bf3220f34a0d3e10c","relation":"main_file"}],"file_date_updated":"2026-09-15T12:34:00Z","has_accepted_license":"1","oa":1,"volume":53,"article_processing_charge":"Yes","citation":{"mla":"Charinti, Giousef Alexandros, et al. “Impact of Upper-Level Warming on Tropical Cyclone Intensity.” <i>Geophysical Research Letters</i>, vol. 53, no. 17, e2025GL121307, Wiley, 2026, doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL121307\">10.1029/2025GL121307</a>.","chicago":"Charinti, Giousef Alexandros, Andrea Davin, Andrea Polesello, Caroline J Muller, and Claudia Pasquero. “Impact of Upper-Level Warming on Tropical Cyclone Intensity.” <i>Geophysical Research Letters</i>. Wiley, 2026. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL121307\">https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL121307</a>.","ieee":"G. A. Charinti, A. Davin, A. Polesello, C. J. Muller, and C. Pasquero, “Impact of upper-level warming on tropical cyclone intensity,” <i>Geophysical Research Letters</i>, vol. 53, no. 17. Wiley, 2026.","apa":"Charinti, G. A., Davin, A., Polesello, A., Muller, C. J., &#38; Pasquero, C. (2026). Impact of upper-level warming on tropical cyclone intensity. <i>Geophysical Research Letters</i>. Wiley. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL121307\">https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL121307</a>","short":"G.A. Charinti, A. Davin, A. Polesello, C.J. Muller, C. Pasquero, Geophysical Research Letters 53 (2026).","ista":"Charinti GA, Davin A, Polesello A, Muller CJ, Pasquero C. 2026. Impact of upper-level warming on tropical cyclone intensity. Geophysical Research Letters. 53(17), e2025GL121307.","ama":"Charinti GA, Davin A, Polesello A, Muller CJ, Pasquero C. Impact of upper-level warming on tropical cyclone intensity. <i>Geophysical Research Letters</i>. 2026;53(17). doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL121307\">10.1029/2025GL121307</a>"},"acknowledgement":"GAC and CM acknowledge funding from the European Research Council (ERC)under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (Project CLUSTER, Grant Agreement No.805041). AD and CP acknowledge support by the National Recovery and Resilience Plan project TeRABIT (Terabit network for Research and Academic Big data in Italy—IR0000022—PNRR Missione 4,Componente 2, Investimento 3.1 CUPI53C21000370006) in the frame of the European Union ‐ NextGenerationEUfunding. Open Access funding provided by Institute of Science and TechnologyAustria/KEMÖ"},{"date_updated":"2025-09-30T12:30:29Z","ec_funded":1,"publication_identifier":{"eissn":["1942-2466"]},"issue":"4","publication_status":"published","article_number":"e2024MS004613","status":"public","publication":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","_id":"19672","month":"04","publisher":"Wiley","year":"2025","tmp":{"name":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (CC-BY 4.0)","legal_code_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode","short":"CC BY (4.0)","image":"/images/cc_by.png"},"file":[{"access_level":"open_access","content_type":"application/pdf","date_updated":"2025-05-12T12:17:08Z","file_id":"19683","file_size":942325,"file_name":"2025_JAMES_Polesello.pdf","creator":"dernst","date_created":"2025-05-12T12:17:08Z","success":1,"checksum":"2f7c74aceaeea4be1fff4de300791319","relation":"main_file"}],"user_id":"317138e5-6ab7-11ef-aa6d-ffef3953e345","date_published":"2025-04-01T00:00:00Z","fulldoi":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004613","scopus_import":"1","language":[{"iso":"eng"}],"acknowledgement":"The authors acknowledge two anonymous reviewers and the editor who provided insightful remarks and comments that helped to significantly improve the manuscript. AP and CJM gratefully acknowledges funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (Project CLUSTER, Grant Agreement No. 805041). Part of this work is an outcome of the project MIUR—Dipartimenti di Eccellenza 2023–2027. ANM is supported by HPC-TRES Grant 2023-04.","article_processing_charge":"Yes","volume":17,"citation":{"apa":"Polesello, A., Charinti, G. A., Meroni, A. N., Muller, C. J., &#38; Pasquero, C. (2025). Intensity oscillations of tropical cyclones: Surface versus mid and upper tropospheric processes. <i>Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems</i>. Wiley. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004613\">https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004613</a>","short":"A. Polesello, G.A. Charinti, A.N. Meroni, C.J. Muller, C. Pasquero, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 17 (2025).","ama":"Polesello A, Charinti GA, Meroni AN, Muller CJ, Pasquero C. Intensity oscillations of tropical cyclones: Surface versus mid and upper tropospheric processes. <i>Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems</i>. 2025;17(4). doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004613\">10.1029/2024MS004613</a>","ista":"Polesello A, Charinti GA, Meroni AN, Muller CJ, Pasquero C. 2025. Intensity oscillations of tropical cyclones: Surface versus mid and upper tropospheric processes. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. 17(4), e2024MS004613.","mla":"Polesello, Andrea, et al. “Intensity Oscillations of Tropical Cyclones: Surface versus Mid and Upper Tropospheric Processes.” <i>Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems</i>, vol. 17, no. 4, e2024MS004613, Wiley, 2025, doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004613\">10.1029/2024MS004613</a>.","chicago":"Polesello, Andrea, Giousef Alexandros Charinti, Agostino Niyonkuru Meroni, Caroline J Muller, and Claudia Pasquero. “Intensity Oscillations of Tropical Cyclones: Surface versus Mid and Upper Tropospheric Processes.” <i>Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems</i>. Wiley, 2025. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004613\">https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004613</a>.","ieee":"A. Polesello, G. A. Charinti, A. N. Meroni, C. J. Muller, and C. Pasquero, “Intensity oscillations of tropical cyclones: Surface versus mid and upper tropospheric processes,” <i>Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems</i>, vol. 17, no. 4. Wiley, 2025."},"oa":1,"has_accepted_license":"1","file_date_updated":"2025-05-12T12:17:08Z","external_id":{"isi":["001472439600001"]},"ddc":["550"],"oa_version":"Published Version","article_type":"original","doi":"10.1029/2024MS004613","quality_controlled":"1","OA_type":"gold","DOAJ_listed":"1","abstract":[{"lang":"eng","text":"Some of the classical models of tropical cyclone intensification predict tropical cyclones to intensify up to a steady intensity, which depends on surface fluxes only, without any relevant role played by convective motions in the troposphere, typically assumed to have a moist adiabatic lapse rate. Simulations performed using the non-hydrostatic, high-resolution model System for Atmosphere Modeling in idealized settings (rotating radiative-convective equilibrium on a doubly periodic domain) show early intensification consistent with these theoretical expectations, but different intensity evolution, with the cyclone undergoing an oscillation in wind speed. This oscillation can be linked to feedbacks between the cyclone intensity and air buoyancy: convective heating, radiative heating, and mixing with warm low stratospheric air warm the mid and upper troposphere of the cyclone stabilizing the air column and thus reducing its intensity. After the intensity decay phase, mid and upper tropospheric cooling, mostly through cold advection from the surroundings, cooled by radiation, rebuilds Convective Available Potential Energy, that peaks just before a new intensification phase. These idealized simulations thus highlight the potentially important interactions between a tropical cyclone, its environment and radiation."}],"department":[{"_id":"CaMu"}],"title":"Intensity oscillations of tropical cyclones: Surface versus mid and upper tropospheric processes","corr_author":"1","day":"01","project":[{"grant_number":"805041","_id":"629205d8-2b32-11ec-9570-e1356ff73576","name":"Organization of CLoUdS, and implications of Tropical  cyclones and for the Energetics of the tropics, in current and waRming climate","call_identifier":"H2020"}],"author":[{"id":"74c777f4-32da-11ee-b498-874db0835561","full_name":"Polesello, Andrea","first_name":"Andrea","last_name":"Polesello"},{"full_name":"Charinti, Giousef Alexandros","id":"7f7cc04c-074c-11ed-af92-eb16afd85c75","first_name":"Giousef Alexandros","last_name":"Charinti"},{"full_name":"Meroni, Agostino Niyonkuru","first_name":"Agostino Niyonkuru","last_name":"Meroni"},{"first_name":"Caroline J","full_name":"Muller, Caroline J","id":"f978ccb0-3f7f-11eb-b193-b0e2bd13182b","last_name":"Muller","orcid":"0000-0001-5836-5350"},{"last_name":"Pasquero","first_name":"Claudia","full_name":"Pasquero, Claudia"}],"OA_place":"publisher","intvolume":"        17","type":"journal_article","date_created":"2025-05-11T22:02:41Z","isi":1}]