---
OA_place: publisher
OA_type: hybrid
_id: '22818'
abstract:
- lang: eng
text: 'Physical processes at play in the genesis and evolution of tropical cyclones
are conducive to the formation of warm cores at their centres. When the warm anomaly
is particularly large in the upper troposphere, it is referred to as a high-level
warm core. Previous works documented the generation of high-level warm cores as
a consequence of stratospheric air intrusion into the troposphere induced by the
upper-level dynamics of a tropical cyclone. However, little attention has been
given to their effects on the storm''s subsequent evolution. It has been suggested
that the presence of a high-level warm core can have opposite effects on tropical
cyclone intensity: both strengthening and weakening have been described as possible
consequences of its formation. In this study, we examine the role of high-level
warm cores in the intensification and dissipation processes of tropical cyclones,
as reproduced in numerical models of different complexities, namely the model
“System for Atmospheric Modeling” (SAM) run under idealized conditions and the
model Nonhydrostatic ICosahedral Atmospheric Model run under realistic conditions
following the DYnamics of the Atmospheric general circulation Modeled On Non-hydrostatic
Domains summer protocol. Our results confirm the hypothesis of a stratospheric
origin behind the formation of high-level warm cores. Their initial role is shown
to be an enhancement of storm intensity, by a lowering of the hydrostatic sea-level
pressure (HSLP) associated with the presence of warm air aloft. However, as the
warm anomaly intensifies and extends to lower levels, it also increases static
stability in the air column, with the consequence of inhibiting convection and
ultimately contributing to cyclone dissipation. These findings suggest that high-level
warm cores play a dual role in the tropical cyclone life cycle, providing a stabilizing
mechanism that can limit cyclone strength and longevity.'
acknowledgement: "The authors thank Tom Beucler, Hamish Ramsay, and two anonymous
reviewers for insightful comments and constructive feedback on earlier versions
of this work.\r\n\r\nThis work is partially funded by the National Recovery and
Resilience Plan project TeRABIT (Terabit network for Research and Academic Big data
in Italy—IR0000022—PNRRMissione4—Componente2—Investim ento3.1—CUPI53C21000370006)
in the frame of the European Union—NextGenerationEU funding. C. Muller gratefully
acknowledges funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European
Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (Project CLUSTER, Grant 805041).
This work is an outcome of the project MIUR—Dipartimenti di Eccellenza 2023–2027.\r\n\r\nThis
work used resources of the Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ) granted by its Scientific
Steering Committee (WLA) under project bb1153. Open access publishing facilitated
by Universita degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca, as part of the Wiley - CRUI-CARE agreement."
article_number: e70280
article_processing_charge: Yes (via OA deal)
article_type: original
author:
- first_name: Andrea
full_name: Davin, Andrea
last_name: Davin
- first_name: Giousef Alexandros
full_name: Charinti, Giousef Alexandros
id: 7f7cc04c-074c-11ed-af92-eb16afd85c75
last_name: Charinti
- first_name: Caroline J
full_name: Muller, Caroline J
id: f978ccb0-3f7f-11eb-b193-b0e2bd13182b
last_name: Muller
orcid: 0000-0001-5836-5350
- first_name: Andrea
full_name: Polesello, Andrea
id: 74c777f4-32da-11ee-b498-874db0835561
last_name: Polesello
- first_name: Claudia
full_name: Pasquero, Claudia
last_name: Pasquero
citation:
ama: Davin A, Charinti GA, Muller CJ, Polesello A, Pasquero C. Stratospheric influence
on tropical cyclone evolution. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological
Society. 2026. doi:10.1002/qj.70280
apa: Davin, A., Charinti, G. A., Muller, C. J., Polesello, A., & Pasquero, C.
(2026). Stratospheric influence on tropical cyclone evolution. Quarterly Journal
of the Royal Meteorological Society. Wiley. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.70280
chicago: Davin, Andrea, Giousef Alexandros Charinti, Caroline J Muller, Andrea Polesello,
and Claudia Pasquero. “Stratospheric Influence on Tropical Cyclone Evolution.”
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. Wiley, 2026. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.70280.
ieee: A. Davin, G. A. Charinti, C. J. Muller, A. Polesello, and C. Pasquero, “Stratospheric
influence on tropical cyclone evolution,” Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological
Society. Wiley, 2026.
ista: Davin A, Charinti GA, Muller CJ, Polesello A, Pasquero C. 2026. Stratospheric
influence on tropical cyclone evolution. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological
Society., e70280.
mla: Davin, Andrea, et al. “Stratospheric Influence on Tropical Cyclone Evolution.”
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, e70280, Wiley, 2026,
doi:10.1002/qj.70280.
short: A. Davin, G.A. Charinti, C.J. Muller, A. Polesello, C. Pasquero, Quarterly
Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (2026).
das_tickbox: '1'
dataavailabilitystatement: The data that support the findings of this study are available
from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
date_created: 2026-09-06T22:01:57Z
date_published: 2026-08-26T00:00:00Z
date_updated: 2026-09-09T12:43:30Z
day: '26'
ddc:
- '550'
department:
- _id: CaMu
- _id: GradSch
doi: 10.1002/qj.70280
ec_funded: 1
fulldoi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.70280
has_accepted_license: '1'
language:
- iso: eng
main_file_link:
- open_access: '1'
url: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.70280
month: '08'
oa: 1
oa_version: Published Version
project:
- _id: 629205d8-2b32-11ec-9570-e1356ff73576
call_identifier: H2020
grant_number: '805041'
name: Organization of CLoUdS, and implications of Tropical cyclones and for the
Energetics of the tropics, in current and waRming climate
publication: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
publication_identifier:
eissn:
- 1477-870X
issn:
- 0035-9009
publication_status: epub_ahead
publisher: Wiley
quality_controlled: '1'
researchdata_availability: upon request
scopus_import: '1'
status: public
supplementarymaterial: yes
title: Stratospheric influence on tropical cyclone evolution
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type: journal_article
user_id: 2DF688A6-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87
year: '2026'
...
---
DOAJ_listed: '1'
OA_place: publisher
OA_type: gold
PlanS_conform: '1'
_id: '22912'
abstract:
- lang: eng
text: Deep convection from tropical cyclones (TCs) can reach the height of the tropopause
and as such an interaction between the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere
is likely to occur. Such interactions have been reported in both numerical and
observational studies, mainly showing that subsidence from the stratosphere into
the eye of an intensifying storm leads to a high-level warm core. However, the
effect of this upper-level warming on the intensity of the TCs is not yet well
understood. In this study, we show that subsiding air from the stratosphere beyond
subsidence in the eye is the reason for the upper-level warming in idealized simulations.
We further show that it is possible to quantify the effects of the upper-level
warming on the potential intensity of the TC. Finally, we conclude that overshooting
convection into the stratosphere causes the observed subsidence, as both become
more pronounced with increasing sea-surface temperatures (SST).
acknowledgement: GAC and CM acknowledge funding from the European Research Council
(ERC)under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (Project
CLUSTER, Grant Agreement No.805041). AD and CP acknowledge support by the National
Recovery and Resilience Plan project TeRABIT (Terabit network for Research and Academic
Big data in Italy—IR0000022—PNRR Missione 4,Componente 2, Investimento 3.1 CUPI53C21000370006)
in the frame of the European Union ‐ NextGenerationEUfunding. Open Access funding
provided by Institute of Science and TechnologyAustria/KEMÖ
article_number: e2025GL121307
article_processing_charge: Yes
article_type: original
author:
- first_name: Giousef Alexandros
full_name: Charinti, Giousef Alexandros
id: 7f7cc04c-074c-11ed-af92-eb16afd85c75
last_name: Charinti
- first_name: Andrea
full_name: Davin, Andrea
last_name: Davin
- first_name: Andrea
full_name: Polesello, Andrea
id: 74c777f4-32da-11ee-b498-874db0835561
last_name: Polesello
- first_name: Caroline J
full_name: Muller, Caroline J
id: f978ccb0-3f7f-11eb-b193-b0e2bd13182b
last_name: Muller
orcid: 0000-0001-5836-5350
- first_name: Claudia
full_name: Pasquero, Claudia
last_name: Pasquero
citation:
ama: Charinti GA, Davin A, Polesello A, Muller CJ, Pasquero C. Impact of upper-level
warming on tropical cyclone intensity. Geophysical Research Letters. 2026;53(17).
doi:10.1029/2025GL121307
apa: Charinti, G. A., Davin, A., Polesello, A., Muller, C. J., & Pasquero, C.
(2026). Impact of upper-level warming on tropical cyclone intensity. Geophysical
Research Letters. Wiley. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL121307
chicago: Charinti, Giousef Alexandros, Andrea Davin, Andrea Polesello, Caroline
J Muller, and Claudia Pasquero. “Impact of Upper-Level Warming on Tropical Cyclone
Intensity.” Geophysical Research Letters. Wiley, 2026. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL121307.
ieee: G. A. Charinti, A. Davin, A. Polesello, C. J. Muller, and C. Pasquero, “Impact
of upper-level warming on tropical cyclone intensity,” Geophysical Research
Letters, vol. 53, no. 17. Wiley, 2026.
ista: Charinti GA, Davin A, Polesello A, Muller CJ, Pasquero C. 2026. Impact of
upper-level warming on tropical cyclone intensity. Geophysical Research Letters.
53(17), e2025GL121307.
mla: Charinti, Giousef Alexandros, et al. “Impact of Upper-Level Warming on Tropical
Cyclone Intensity.” Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 53, no. 17, e2025GL121307,
Wiley, 2026, doi:10.1029/2025GL121307.
short: G.A. Charinti, A. Davin, A. Polesello, C.J. Muller, C. Pasquero, Geophysical
Research Letters 53 (2026).
corr_author: '1'
das_tickbox: '1'
dataavailabilitystatement: The post‐processed simulation data and the analysis scripts
are available on Figshare https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.30933764 (Charinti
et al., 2025).
date_created: 2026-09-13T22:01:51Z
date_published: 2026-09-16T00:00:00Z
date_updated: 2026-09-15T12:38:32Z
day: '16'
ddc:
- '550'
department:
- _id: CaMu
- _id: GradSch
doi: 10.1029/2025GL121307
ec_funded: 1
file:
- access_level: open_access
checksum: 8d1c470e4c2cb43bf3220f34a0d3e10c
content_type: application/pdf
creator: dernst
date_created: 2026-09-15T12:34:00Z
date_updated: 2026-09-15T12:34:00Z
file_id: '22931'
file_name: 2026_GeophysicalResearchLetters_Charinti.pdf
file_size: 1277378
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fulldoi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL121307
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intvolume: ' 53'
issue: '17'
language:
- iso: eng
month: '09'
oa: 1
oa_version: Published Version
project:
- _id: 629205d8-2b32-11ec-9570-e1356ff73576
call_identifier: H2020
grant_number: '805041'
name: Organization of CLoUdS, and implications of Tropical cyclones and for the
Energetics of the tropics, in current and waRming climate
publication: Geophysical Research Letters
publication_identifier:
eissn:
- 1944-8007
issn:
- 0094-8276
publication_status: published
publisher: Wiley
quality_controlled: '1'
researchdata_availability: yes
scopus_import: '1'
status: public
supplementarymaterial: yes
title: Impact of upper-level warming on tropical cyclone intensity
tmp:
image: /images/cc_by.png
legal_code_url: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode
name: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (CC-BY 4.0)
short: CC BY (4.0)
type: journal_article
user_id: 2DF688A6-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87
volume: 53
year: '2026'
...
---
DOAJ_listed: '1'
OA_place: publisher
OA_type: gold
_id: '19672'
abstract:
- lang: eng
text: 'Some of the classical models of tropical cyclone intensification predict
tropical cyclones to intensify up to a steady intensity, which depends on surface
fluxes only, without any relevant role played by convective motions in the troposphere,
typically assumed to have a moist adiabatic lapse rate. Simulations performed
using the non-hydrostatic, high-resolution model System for Atmosphere Modeling
in idealized settings (rotating radiative-convective equilibrium on a doubly periodic
domain) show early intensification consistent with these theoretical expectations,
but different intensity evolution, with the cyclone undergoing an oscillation
in wind speed. This oscillation can be linked to feedbacks between the cyclone
intensity and air buoyancy: convective heating, radiative heating, and mixing
with warm low stratospheric air warm the mid and upper troposphere of the cyclone
stabilizing the air column and thus reducing its intensity. After the intensity
decay phase, mid and upper tropospheric cooling, mostly through cold advection
from the surroundings, cooled by radiation, rebuilds Convective Available Potential
Energy, that peaks just before a new intensification phase. These idealized simulations
thus highlight the potentially important interactions between a tropical cyclone,
its environment and radiation.'
acknowledgement: The authors acknowledge two anonymous reviewers and the editor who
provided insightful remarks and comments that helped to significantly improve the
manuscript. AP and CJM gratefully acknowledges funding from the European Research
Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program
(Project CLUSTER, Grant Agreement No. 805041). Part of this work is an outcome of
the project MIUR—Dipartimenti di Eccellenza 2023–2027. ANM is supported by HPC-TRES
Grant 2023-04.
article_number: e2024MS004613
article_processing_charge: Yes
article_type: original
author:
- first_name: Andrea
full_name: Polesello, Andrea
id: 74c777f4-32da-11ee-b498-874db0835561
last_name: Polesello
- first_name: Giousef Alexandros
full_name: Charinti, Giousef Alexandros
id: 7f7cc04c-074c-11ed-af92-eb16afd85c75
last_name: Charinti
- first_name: Agostino Niyonkuru
full_name: Meroni, Agostino Niyonkuru
last_name: Meroni
- first_name: Caroline J
full_name: Muller, Caroline J
id: f978ccb0-3f7f-11eb-b193-b0e2bd13182b
last_name: Muller
orcid: 0000-0001-5836-5350
- first_name: Claudia
full_name: Pasquero, Claudia
last_name: Pasquero
citation:
ama: 'Polesello A, Charinti GA, Meroni AN, Muller CJ, Pasquero C. Intensity oscillations
of tropical cyclones: Surface versus mid and upper tropospheric processes. Journal
of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. 2025;17(4). doi:10.1029/2024MS004613'
apa: 'Polesello, A., Charinti, G. A., Meroni, A. N., Muller, C. J., & Pasquero,
C. (2025). Intensity oscillations of tropical cyclones: Surface versus mid and
upper tropospheric processes. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems.
Wiley. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004613'
chicago: 'Polesello, Andrea, Giousef Alexandros Charinti, Agostino Niyonkuru Meroni,
Caroline J Muller, and Claudia Pasquero. “Intensity Oscillations of Tropical Cyclones:
Surface versus Mid and Upper Tropospheric Processes.” Journal of Advances in
Modeling Earth Systems. Wiley, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004613.'
ieee: 'A. Polesello, G. A. Charinti, A. N. Meroni, C. J. Muller, and C. Pasquero,
“Intensity oscillations of tropical cyclones: Surface versus mid and upper tropospheric
processes,” Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, vol. 17, no.
4. Wiley, 2025.'
ista: 'Polesello A, Charinti GA, Meroni AN, Muller CJ, Pasquero C. 2025. Intensity
oscillations of tropical cyclones: Surface versus mid and upper tropospheric processes.
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. 17(4), e2024MS004613.'
mla: 'Polesello, Andrea, et al. “Intensity Oscillations of Tropical Cyclones: Surface
versus Mid and Upper Tropospheric Processes.” Journal of Advances in Modeling
Earth Systems, vol. 17, no. 4, e2024MS004613, Wiley, 2025, doi:10.1029/2024MS004613.'
short: A. Polesello, G.A. Charinti, A.N. Meroni, C.J. Muller, C. Pasquero, Journal
of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 17 (2025).
corr_author: '1'
date_created: 2025-05-11T22:02:41Z
date_published: 2025-04-01T00:00:00Z
date_updated: 2025-09-30T12:30:29Z
day: '01'
ddc:
- '550'
department:
- _id: CaMu
doi: 10.1029/2024MS004613
ec_funded: 1
external_id:
isi:
- '001472439600001'
file:
- access_level: open_access
checksum: 2f7c74aceaeea4be1fff4de300791319
content_type: application/pdf
creator: dernst
date_created: 2025-05-12T12:17:08Z
date_updated: 2025-05-12T12:17:08Z
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file_name: 2025_JAMES_Polesello.pdf
file_size: 942325
relation: main_file
success: 1
file_date_updated: 2025-05-12T12:17:08Z
fulldoi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004613
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intvolume: ' 17'
isi: 1
issue: '4'
language:
- iso: eng
month: '04'
oa: 1
oa_version: Published Version
project:
- _id: 629205d8-2b32-11ec-9570-e1356ff73576
call_identifier: H2020
grant_number: '805041'
name: Organization of CLoUdS, and implications of Tropical cyclones and for the
Energetics of the tropics, in current and waRming climate
publication: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
publication_identifier:
eissn:
- 1942-2466
publication_status: published
publisher: Wiley
quality_controlled: '1'
scopus_import: '1'
status: public
title: 'Intensity oscillations of tropical cyclones: Surface versus mid and upper
tropospheric processes'
tmp:
image: /images/cc_by.png
legal_code_url: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode
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short: CC BY (4.0)
type: journal_article
user_id: 317138e5-6ab7-11ef-aa6d-ffef3953e345
volume: 17
year: '2025'
...