---
APC_amount: 3654 EUR
DOAJ_listed: '1'
OA_place: publisher
OA_type: gold
PlanS_conform: '1'
_id: '20703'
abstract:
- lang: eng
  text: Glacier melt sustains water discharge from mountain basins during droughts,
    but ongoing glacier retreat threatens this fundamental capacity. Here, we assess
    the response of glaciers in the Southern Andes to one of the most severe, persistent,
    and extensive droughts on record in South America (2010-present), and to projected
    end-of-century megadroughts. Using glacio-hydrological numerical simulations,
    we show that despite a mean annual precipitation deficit of 36%, glacier runoff
    in 2010-2019 remained almost unaltered compared to the preceding decade (2000-2009),
    sustained by a 10% loss of total ice volume. However, simulations of future glacier
    evolution indicate that annual and summer glacier runoff could decline by up to
    20 ± 11% and 48 ± 6%, respectively, during end-of-century megadroughts compared
    to pre-2010 levels. Our results project a weakening of the glacier’s buffering
    role against precipitation deficits during extreme droughts, increasing water
    scarcity for ecosystems and livelihoods in the mountain regions of South America.
acknowledgement: 'This research was funded in whole or in part by the Austrian Science
  Fund (FWF), DOI: 10.55776/16891. The project MegaWat has received funding from the
  Austrian Science Fund (FWF), Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF), the Centre
  for the Development of Industrial Technology (CDTI), Dutch Research Council (NWO),
  National Research Council (CNR) and the European Union’s Horizon Europe Programme
  under the 2022 Joint Transnational Call of the European Partnership Water4all (Grant
  Agreement n°101060874). Á.A. acknowledges Fondecyt Postdoc No. 3190732, the WSL
  programme ‘Extremes’ through the EMERGE project and together with S.M. ANID-CENTROS
  REGIONALES R20F0008. E.M.C. thanks ANID National Master scholarship year 2020 N°22200599
  and the Swiss National Science Foundation Grant 200021_214907. P.A.M. acknowledges
  support from the Fondecyt project No. 11200142, and ANID/PIA project No AFB230001.'
article_number: '860'
article_processing_charge: Yes
article_type: original
author:
- first_name: Álvaro
  full_name: Ayala, Álvaro
  last_name: Ayala
- first_name: Eduardo
  full_name: Muñoz-Castro, Eduardo
  last_name: Muñoz-Castro
- first_name: Daniel
  full_name: Farinotti, Daniel
  last_name: Farinotti
- first_name: David
  full_name: Farías-Barahona, David
  last_name: Farías-Barahona
- first_name: Pablo A.
  full_name: Mendoza, Pablo A.
  last_name: Mendoza
- first_name: Shelley
  full_name: Macdonell, Shelley
  last_name: Macdonell
- first_name: James
  full_name: Mcphee, James
  last_name: Mcphee
- first_name: Ximena
  full_name: Vargas, Ximena
  last_name: Vargas
- first_name: Francesca
  full_name: Pellicciotti, Francesca
  id: b28f055a-81ea-11ed-b70c-a9fe7f7b0e70
  last_name: Pellicciotti
  orcid: 0000-0002-5554-8087
citation:
  ama: Ayala Á, Muñoz-Castro E, Farinotti D, et al. Less water from glaciers during
    future megadroughts in the Southern Andes. <i>Communications Earth and Environment</i>.
    2025;6. doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02845-6">10.1038/s43247-025-02845-6</a>
  apa: Ayala, Á., Muñoz-Castro, E., Farinotti, D., Farías-Barahona, D., Mendoza, P.
    A., Macdonell, S., … Pellicciotti, F. (2025). Less water from glaciers during
    future megadroughts in the Southern Andes. <i>Communications Earth and Environment</i>.
    Springer Nature. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02845-6">https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02845-6</a>
  chicago: Ayala, Álvaro, Eduardo Muñoz-Castro, Daniel Farinotti, David Farías-Barahona,
    Pablo A. Mendoza, Shelley Macdonell, James Mcphee, Ximena Vargas, and Francesca
    Pellicciotti. “Less Water from Glaciers during Future Megadroughts in the Southern
    Andes.” <i>Communications Earth and Environment</i>. Springer Nature, 2025. <a
    href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02845-6">https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02845-6</a>.
  ieee: Á. Ayala <i>et al.</i>, “Less water from glaciers during future megadroughts
    in the Southern Andes,” <i>Communications Earth and Environment</i>, vol. 6. Springer
    Nature, 2025.
  ista: Ayala Á, Muñoz-Castro E, Farinotti D, Farías-Barahona D, Mendoza PA, Macdonell
    S, Mcphee J, Vargas X, Pellicciotti F. 2025. Less water from glaciers during future
    megadroughts in the Southern Andes. Communications Earth and Environment. 6, 860.
  mla: Ayala, Álvaro, et al. “Less Water from Glaciers during Future Megadroughts
    in the Southern Andes.” <i>Communications Earth and Environment</i>, vol. 6, 860,
    Springer Nature, 2025, doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02845-6">10.1038/s43247-025-02845-6</a>.
  short: Á. Ayala, E. Muñoz-Castro, D. Farinotti, D. Farías-Barahona, P.A. Mendoza,
    S. Macdonell, J. Mcphee, X. Vargas, F. Pellicciotti, Communications Earth and
    Environment 6 (2025).
date_created: 2025-11-30T23:02:06Z
date_published: 2025-12-01T00:00:00Z
date_updated: 2026-05-20T08:02:48Z
day: '01'
ddc:
- '550'
department:
- _id: FrPe
doi: 10.1038/s43247-025-02845-6
external_id:
  isi:
  - '001617609200003'
file:
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  creator: dernst
  date_created: 2025-12-01T09:10:13Z
  date_updated: 2025-12-01T09:10:13Z
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has_accepted_license: '1'
intvolume: '         6'
isi: 1
language:
- iso: eng
license: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
month: '12'
oa: 1
oa_version: Published Version
project:
- _id: 8e4c5b0b-16d5-11f0-9cad-9fa5f341393c
  grant_number: I06891
  name: Megadroughts in the Water towers of Europe - from process understanding to
    strategies for
- _id: 3AC91DDA-15DF-11EA-824D-93A3E7B544D1
  call_identifier: FWF
  name: FWF Open Access Fund
publication: Communications Earth and Environment
publication_identifier:
  eissn:
  - 2662-4435
publication_status: published
publisher: Springer Nature
quality_controlled: '1'
related_material:
  link:
  - description: News on ISTA website
    relation: press_release
    url: https://ista.ac.at/en/news/the-future-fate-of-water-in-the-andes/
scopus_import: '1'
status: public
title: Less water from glaciers during future megadroughts in the Southern Andes
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  legal_code_url: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode
  name: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (CC-BY 4.0)
  short: CC BY (4.0)
type: journal_article
user_id: 2DF688A6-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87
volume: 6
year: '2025'
...