@article{6467,
  abstract     = {Fitness interactions between mutations can influence a population’s evolution in many different ways. While epistatic effects are difficult to measure precisely, important information is captured by the mean and variance of log fitnesses for individuals carrying different numbers of mutations. We derive predictions for these quantities from a class of simple fitness landscapes, based on models of optimizing selection on quantitative traits. We also explore extensions to the models, including modular pleiotropy, variable effect sizes, mutational bias and maladaptation of the wild type. We illustrate our approach by reanalysing a large dataset of mutant effects in a yeast snoRNA (small nucleolar RNA). Though characterized by some large epistatic effects, these data give a good overall fit to the non-epistatic null model, suggesting that epistasis might have limited influence on the evolutionary dynamics in this system. We also show how the amount of epistasis depends on both the underlying fitness landscape and the distribution of mutations, and so is expected to vary in consistent ways between new mutations, standing variation and fixed mutations.},
  author       = {Fraisse, Christelle and Welch, John J.},
  issn         = {1744-957X},
  journal      = {Biology Letters},
  number       = {4},
  publisher    = {Royal Society of London},
  title        = {{The distribution of epistasis on simple fitness landscapes}},
  doi          = {10.1098/rsbl.2018.0881},
  volume       = {15},
  year         = {2019},
}

@article{6637,
  abstract     = {The environment changes constantly at various time scales and, in order to survive, species need to keep adapting. Whether these species succeed in avoiding extinction is a major evolutionary question. Using a multilocus evolutionary model of a mutation‐limited population adapting under strong selection, we investigate the effects of the frequency of environmental fluctuations on adaptation. Our results rely on an “adaptive‐walk” approximation and use mathematical methods from evolutionary computation theory to investigate the interplay between fluctuation frequency, the similarity of environments, and the number of loci contributing to adaptation. First, we assume a linear additive fitness function, but later generalize our results to include several types of epistasis. We show that frequent environmental changes prevent populations from reaching a fitness peak, but they may also prevent the large fitness loss that occurs after a single environmental change. Thus, the population can survive, although not thrive, in a wide range of conditions. Furthermore, we show that in a frequently changing environment, the similarity of threats that a population faces affects the level of adaptation that it is able to achieve. We check and supplement our analytical results with simulations.},
  author       = {Trubenova, Barbora and Krejca, Martin  and Lehre, Per Kristian and Kötzing, Timo},
  journal      = {Evolution},
  number       = {7},
  pages        = {1356--1374},
  publisher    = {Wiley},
  title        = {{Surfing on the seascape: Adaptation in a changing environment}},
  doi          = {10.1111/evo.13784},
  volume       = {73},
  year         = {2019},
}

@article{6680,
  abstract     = {This paper analyzes how partial selfing in a large source population influences its ability to colonize a new habitat via the introduction of a few founder individuals. Founders experience inbreeding depression due to partially recessive deleterious alleles as well as maladaptation to the new environment due to selection on a large number of additive loci. I first introduce a simplified version of the Inbreeding History Model (Kelly, 2007) in order to characterize mutation‐selection balance in a large, partially selfing source population under selection involving multiple non‐identical loci. I then use individual‐based simulations to study the eco‐evolutionary dynamics of founders establishing in the new habitat under a model of hard selection. The study explores how selfing rate shapes establishment probabilities of founders via effects on both inbreeding depression and adaptability to the new environment, and also distinguishes the effects of selfing on the initial fitness of founders from its effects on the long‐term adaptive response of the populations they found. A high rate of (but not complete) selfing is found to aid establishment over a wide range of parameters, even in the absence of mate limitation. The sensitivity of the results to assumptions about the nature of polygenic selection are discussed.},
  author       = {Sachdeva, Himani},
  issn         = {1558-5646},
  journal      = {Evolution},
  number       = {9},
  pages        = {1729--1745},
  publisher    = {Wiley},
  title        = {{Effect of partial selfing and polygenic selection on establishment in a new habitat}},
  doi          = {10.1111/evo.13812},
  volume       = {73},
  year         = {2019},
}

@article{6855,
  abstract     = {Many traits of interest are highly heritable and genetically complex, meaning that much of the variation they exhibit arises from differences at numerous loci in the genome. Complex traits and their evolution have been studied for more than a century, but only in the last decade have genome-wide association studies (GWASs) in humans begun to reveal their genetic basis. Here, we bring these threads of research together to ask how findings from GWASs can further our understanding of the processes that give rise to heritable variation in complex traits and of the genetic basis of complex trait evolution in response to changing selection pressures (i.e., of polygenic adaptation). Conversely, we ask how evolutionary thinking helps us to interpret findings from GWASs and informs related efforts of practical importance.},
  author       = {Sella, Guy and Barton, Nicholas H},
  issn         = {1545-293X},
  journal      = {Annual Review of Genomics and Human Genetics},
  pages        = {461--493},
  publisher    = {Annual Reviews},
  title        = {{Thinking about the evolution of complex traits in the era of genome-wide association studies}},
  doi          = {10.1146/annurev-genom-083115-022316},
  volume       = {20},
  year         = {2019},
}

@article{6856,
  abstract     = {Plant mating systems play a key role in structuring genetic variation both within and between species. In hybrid zones, the outcomes and dynamics of hybridization are usually interpreted as the balance between gene flow and selection against hybrids. Yet, mating systems can introduce selective forces that alter these expectations; with diverse outcomes for the level and direction of gene flow depending on variation in outcrossing and whether the mating systems of the species pair are the same or divergent. We present a survey of hybridization in 133 species pairs from 41 plant families and examine how patterns of hybridization vary with mating system. We examine if hybrid zone mode, level of gene flow, asymmetries in gene flow and the frequency of reproductive isolating barriers vary in relation to mating system/s of the species pair. We combine these results with a simulation model and examples from the literature to address two general themes: (i) the two‐way interaction between introgression and the evolution of reproductive systems, and (ii) how mating system can facilitate or restrict interspecific gene flow. We conclude that examining mating system with hybridization provides unique opportunities to understand divergence and the processes underlying reproductive isolation.},
  author       = {Pickup, Melinda and Barton, Nicholas H and Brandvain, Yaniv and Fraisse, Christelle and Yakimowski, Sarah and Dixit, Tanmay and Lexer, Christian and Cereghetti, Eva and Field, David},
  issn         = {1469-8137},
  journal      = {New Phytologist},
  number       = {3},
  pages        = {1035--1047},
  publisher    = {Wiley},
  title        = {{Mating system variation in hybrid zones: Facilitation, barriers and asymmetries to gene flow}},
  doi          = {10.1111/nph.16180},
  volume       = {224},
  year         = {2019},
}

@article{6857,
  abstract     = {Gene Drives are regarded as future tools with a high potential for population control. Due to their inherent ability to overcome the rules of Mendelian inheritance, gene drives (GD) may spread genes rapidly through populations of sexually reproducing organisms. A release of organisms carrying a GD would constitute a paradigm shift in the handling of genetically modified organisms because gene drive organisms (GDO) are designed to drive their transgenes into wild populations and thereby increase the number of GDOs. The rapid development in this field and its focus on wild populations demand a prospective risk assessment with a focus on exposure related aspects. Presently, it is unclear how adequate risk management could be guaranteed to limit the spread of GDs in time and space, in order to avoid potential adverse effects in socio‐ecological systems.

The recent workshop on the “Evaluation of Spatial and Temporal Control of Gene Drives” hosted by the Institute of Safety/Security and Risk Sciences (ISR) in Vienna aimed at gaining some insight into the potential population dynamic behavior of GDs and appropriate measures of control. Scientists from France, Germany, England, and the USA discussed both topics in this meeting on April 4–5, 2019. This article summarizes results of the workshop.},
  author       = {Giese, B and Friess, J L and Schetelig, M F  and Barton, Nicholas H and Messer, Philip and Debarre, Florence and Meimberg, H and Windbichler, N and Boete, C},
  issn         = {1521-1878},
  journal      = {BioEssays},
  number       = {11},
  publisher    = {Wiley},
  title        = {{Gene Drives: Dynamics and regulatory matters – A report from the workshop “Evaluation of spatial and temporal control of Gene Drives”, 4 – 5 April 2019, Vienna}},
  doi          = {10.1002/bies.201900151},
  volume       = {41},
  year         = {2019},
}

@article{6858,
  author       = {Barton, Nicholas H},
  issn         = {2053-714X},
  journal      = {National Science Review},
  number       = {2},
  pages        = {291--292},
  publisher    = {Oxford University Press},
  title        = {{Is speciation driven by cycles of mixing and isolation?}},
  doi          = {10.1093/nsr/nwy113},
  volume       = {6},
  year         = {2019},
}

@article{7393,
  abstract     = {The study of parallel ecological divergence provides important clues to the operation of natural selection. Parallel divergence often occurs in heterogeneous environments with different kinds of environmental gradients in different locations, but the genomic basis underlying this process is unknown. We investigated the genomics of rapid parallel adaptation in the marine snail Littorina saxatilis in response to two independent environmental axes (crab-predation versus wave-action and low-shore versus high-shore). Using pooled whole-genome resequencing, we show that sharing of genomic regions of high differentiation between environments is generally low but increases at smaller spatial scales. We identify different shared genomic regions of divergence for each environmental axis and show that most of these regions overlap with candidate chromosomal inversions. Several inversion regions are divergent and polymorphic across many localities. We argue that chromosomal inversions could store shared variation that fuels rapid parallel adaptation to heterogeneous environments, possibly as balanced polymorphism shared by adaptive gene flow.},
  author       = {Morales, Hernán E. and Faria, Rui and Johannesson, Kerstin and Larsson, Tomas and Panova, Marina and Westram, Anja M and Butlin, Roger K.},
  issn         = {2375-2548},
  journal      = {Science Advances},
  number       = {12},
  publisher    = {AAAS},
  title        = {{Genomic architecture of parallel ecological divergence: Beyond a single environmental contrast}},
  doi          = {10.1126/sciadv.aav9963},
  volume       = {5},
  year         = {2019},
}

@misc{9839,
  abstract     = {More than 100 years after Grigg’s influential analysis of species’ borders, the causes of limits to species’ ranges still represent a puzzle that has never been understood with clarity. The topic has become especially important recently as many scientists have become interested in the potential for species’ ranges to shift in response to climate change—and yet nearly all of those studies fail to recognise or incorporate evolutionary genetics in a way that relates to theoretical developments. I show that range margins can be understood based on just two measurable parameters: (i) the fitness cost of dispersal—a measure of environmental heterogeneity—and (ii) the strength of genetic drift, which reduces genetic diversity. Together, these two parameters define an ‘expansion threshold’: adaptation fails when genetic drift reduces genetic diversity below that required for adaptation to a heterogeneous environment. When the key parameters drop below this expansion threshold locally, a sharp range margin forms. When they drop below this threshold throughout the species’ range, adaptation collapses everywhere, resulting in either extinction or formation of a fragmented metapopulation. Because the effects of dispersal differ fundamentally with dimension, the second parameter—the strength of genetic drift—is qualitatively different compared to a linear habitat. In two-dimensional habitats, genetic drift becomes effectively independent of selection. It decreases with ‘neighbourhood size’—the number of individuals accessible by dispersal within one generation. Moreover, in contrast to earlier predictions, which neglected evolution of genetic variance and/or stochasticity in two dimensions, dispersal into small marginal populations aids adaptation. This is because the reduction of both genetic and demographic stochasticity has a stronger effect than the cost of dispersal through increased maladaptation. The expansion threshold thus provides a novel, theoretically justified, and testable prediction for formation of the range margin and collapse of the species’ range.},
  author       = {Polechova, Jitka},
  publisher    = {Dryad},
  title        = {{Data from: Is the sky the limit? On the expansion threshold of a species' range}},
  doi          = {10.5061/dryad.5vv37},
  year         = {2019},
}

@article{6230,
  abstract     = {Great care is needed when interpreting claims about the genetic basis of human variation based on data from genome-wide association studies.},
  author       = {Barton, Nicholas H and Hermisson, Joachim and Nordborg, Magnus},
  issn         = {2050-084X},
  journal      = {eLife},
  publisher    = {eLife Sciences Publications},
  title        = {{Why structure matters}},
  doi          = {10.7554/eLife.45380},
  volume       = {8},
  year         = {2019},
}

@article{6795,
  abstract     = {The green‐beard effect is one proposed mechanism predicted to underpin the evolu‐tion of altruistic behavior. It relies on the recognition and the selective help of altruists to each other in order to promote and sustain altruistic behavior. However, this mechanism has often been dismissed as unlikely or uncommon, as it is assumed that both the signaling trait and altruistic trait need to be encoded by the same gene or through tightly linked genes. Here, we use models of indirect genetic effects (IGEs) to find the minimum correlation between the signaling and altruistic trait required for the evolution of the latter. We show that this correlation threshold depends on the strength of the interaction (influence of the green beard on the expression of the altruistic trait), as well as the costs and benefits of the altruistic behavior. We further show that this correlation does not necessarily have to be high and support our analytical results by simulations.},
  author       = {Trubenova, Barbora and Hager, Reinmar},
  issn         = {2045-7758},
  journal      = {Ecology and Evolution},
  number       = {17},
  pages        = {9597--9608},
  publisher    = {Wiley},
  title        = {{Green beards in the light of indirect genetic effects}},
  doi          = {10.1002/ece3.5484},
  volume       = {9},
  year         = {2019},
}

@article{6831,
  abstract     = {* Understanding the mechanisms causing phenotypic differences between females and males has long fascinated evolutionary biologists. An extensive literature exists on animal sexual dimorphism but less information is known about sex differences in plants, particularly the extent of geographical variation in sexual dimorphism and its life‐cycle dynamics.
* Here, we investigated patterns of genetically based sexual dimorphism in vegetative and reproductive traits of a wind‐pollinated dioecious plant, Rumex hastatulus, across three life‐cycle stages using open‐pollinated families from 30 populations spanning the geographic range and chromosomal variation (XY and XY1Y2) of the species.
* The direction and degree of sexual dimorphism was highly variable among populations and life‐cycle stages. Sex‐specific differences in reproductive function explained a significant amount of temporal change in sexual dimorphism. For several traits, geographical variation in sexual dimorphism was associated with bioclimatic parameters, likely due to the differential responses of the sexes to climate. We found no systematic differences in sexual dimorphism between chromosome races.
* Sex‐specific trait differences in dioecious plants largely result from a balance between sexual and natural selection on resource allocation. Our results indicate that abiotic factors associated with geographical context also play a role in modifying sexual dimorphism during the plant life‐cycle.},
  author       = {Puixeu Sala, Gemma and Pickup, Melinda and Field, David and Barrett, Spencer C.H.},
  issn         = {1469-8137},
  journal      = {New Phytologist},
  number       = {3},
  pages        = {1108--1120},
  publisher    = {Wiley},
  title        = {{Variation in sexual dimorphism in a wind-pollinated plant: The influence of geographical context and life-cycle dynamics}},
  doi          = {10.1111/nph.16050},
  volume       = {224},
  year         = {2019},
}

@misc{9803,
  abstract     = {Understanding the mechanisms causing phenotypic differences between females and males has long fascinated evolutionary biologists. An extensive literature exists on animal sexual dimorphism but less is known about sex differences in plants, particularly the extent of geographical variation in sexual dimorphism and its life-cycle dynamics. Here, we investigate patterns of genetically-based sexual dimorphism in vegetative and reproductive traits of a wind-pollinated dioecious plant, Rumex hastatulus, across three life-cycle stages using open-pollinated families from 30 populations spanning the geographic range and chromosomal variation (XY and XY1Y2) of the species. The direction and degree of sexual dimorphism was highly variable among populations and life-cycle stages. Sex-specific differences in reproductive function explained a significant amount of temporal change in sexual dimorphism. For several traits, geographical variation in sexual dimorphism was associated with bioclimatic parameters, likely due to the differential responses of the sexes to climate. We found no systematic differences in sexual dimorphism between chromosome races. Sex-specific trait differences in dioecious plants largely result from a balance between sexual and natural selection on resource allocation. Our results indicate that abiotic factors associated with geographical context also play a role in modifying sexual dimorphism during the plant life cycle.},
  author       = {Puixeu Sala, Gemma and Pickup, Melinda and Field, David and Barrett, Spencer C.H.},
  publisher    = {Dryad},
  title        = {{Data from: Variation in sexual dimorphism in a wind-pollinated plant: the influence of geographical context and life-cycle dynamics}},
  doi          = {10.5061/dryad.n1701c9},
  year         = {2019},
}

@phdthesis{6071,
  abstract     = {Transcription factors, by binding to specific sequences on the DNA, control the precise spatio-temporal expression of genes inside a cell. However, this specificity is limited, leading to frequent incorrect binding of transcription factors that might have deleterious consequences on the cell. By constructing a biophysical model of TF-DNA binding in the context of gene regulation, I will first explore how regulatory constraints can strongly shape the distribution of a population in sequence space. Then, by directly linking this to a picture of multiple types of transcription factors performing their functions simultaneously inside the cell, I will explore the extent of regulatory crosstalk -- incorrect binding interactions between transcription factors and binding sites that lead to erroneous regulatory states -- and understand the constraints this places on the design of regulatory systems. I will then develop a generic theoretical framework to investigate the coevolution of multiple transcription factors and multiple binding sites, in the context of a gene regulatory network that performs a certain function. As a particular tractable version of this problem, I will consider the evolution of two transcription factors when they transmit upstream signals to downstream target genes. Specifically, I will describe the evolutionary steady states and the evolutionary pathways involved, along with their timescales, of a system that initially undergoes a transcription factor duplication event. To connect this important theoretical model to the prominent biological event of transcription factor duplication giving rise to paralogous families, I will then describe a bioinformatics analysis of C2H2 Zn-finger transcription factors, a major family in humans, and focus on the patterns of evolution that paralogs have undergone in their various protein domains in the recent past. },
  author       = {Prizak, Roshan},
  issn         = {2663-337X},
  pages        = {189},
  publisher    = {Institute of Science and Technology Austria},
  title        = {{Coevolution of transcription factors and their binding sites in sequence space}},
  doi          = {10.15479/at:ista:th6071},
  year         = {2019},
}

@article{6466,
  abstract     = {One of the most striking and consistent results in speciation genomics is the heterogeneous divergence observed across the genomes of closely related species. This pattern was initially attributed to different levels of gene exchange—with divergence preserved at loci generating a barrier to gene flow but homogenized at unlinked neutral loci. Although there is evidence to support this model, it is now recognized that interpreting patterns of divergence across genomes is not so straightforward. One 
problem is that heterogenous divergence between populations can also be generated by other processes (e.g. recurrent selective sweeps or background selection) without any involvement of differential gene flow. Thus, integrated studies that identify which loci are likely subject to divergent selection are required to shed light on the interplay between selection and gene flow during the early phases of speciation. In this issue of Molecular Ecology, Rifkin et al. (2019) confront this challenge using a pair of sister morning glory species. They wisely design their sampling to take the geographic context of individuals into account, including geographically isolated (allopatric) and co‐occurring (sympatric) populations. This enabled them to show that individuals are phenotypically less differentiated in sympatry. They also found that the loci that resist introgression are enriched for those most differentiated in allopatry and loci that exhibit signals of divergent selection. One great strength of the 
study is the combination of methods from population genetics and molecular evolution, including the development of a model to simultaneously infer admixture proportions and selfing rates.},
  author       = {Field, David and Fraisse, Christelle},
  issn         = {1365-294X},
  journal      = {Molecular ecology},
  number       = {7},
  pages        = {1579--1581},
  publisher    = {Wiley},
  title        = {{Breaking down barriers in morning glories}},
  doi          = {10.1111/mec.15048},
  volume       = {28},
  year         = {2019},
}

@article{5911,
  abstract     = {Empirical data suggest that inversions in many species contain genes important for intraspecific divergence and speciation, yet mechanisms of evolution remain unclear. While genes inside an inversion are tightly linked, inversions are not static but evolve separately from the rest of the genome by new mutations, recombination within arrangements, and gene flux between arrangements. Inversion polymorphisms are maintained by different processes, for example, divergent or balancing selection, or a mix of multiple processes. Moreover, the relative roles of selection, drift, mutation, and recombination will change over the lifetime of an inversion and within its area of distribution. We believe inversions are central to the evolution of many species, but we need many more data and new models to understand the complex mechanisms involved.},
  author       = {Faria, Rui and Johannesson, Kerstin and Butlin, Roger K. and Westram, Anja M},
  issn         = {0169-5347},
  journal      = {Trends in Ecology and Evolution},
  number       = {3},
  pages        = {239--248},
  publisher    = {Elsevier},
  title        = {{Evolving inversions}},
  doi          = {10.1016/j.tree.2018.12.005},
  volume       = {34},
  year         = {2019},
}

@article{6713,
  abstract     = {Evolutionary studies are often limited by missing data that are critical to understanding the history of selection. Selection experiments, which reproduce rapid evolution under controlled conditions, are excellent tools to study how genomes evolve under selection. Here we present a genomic dissection of the Longshanks selection experiment, in which mice were selectively bred over 20 generations for longer tibiae relative to body mass, resulting in 13% longer tibiae in two replicates. We synthesized evolutionary theory, genome sequences and molecular genetics to understand the selection response and found that it involved both polygenic adaptation and discrete loci of major effect, with the strongest loci tending to be selected in parallel between replicates. We show that selection may favor de-repression of bone growth through inactivating two limb enhancers of an inhibitor, Nkx3-2. Our integrative genomic analyses thus show that it is possible to connect individual base-pair changes to the overall selection response.},
  author       = {Castro, João Pl and Yancoskie, Michelle N. and Marchini, Marta and Belohlavy, Stefanie and Hiramatsu, Layla and Kučka, Marek and Beluch, William H. and Naumann, Ronald and Skuplik, Isabella and Cobb, John and Barton, Nicholas H and Rolian, Campbell and Chan, Yingguang Frank},
  journal      = {eLife},
  publisher    = {eLife Sciences Publications},
  title        = {{An integrative genomic analysis of the Longshanks selection experiment for longer limbs in mice}},
  doi          = {10.7554/eLife.42014},
  volume       = {8},
  year         = {2019},
}

@article{282,
  abstract     = {Adaptive introgression is common in nature and can be driven by selection acting on multiple, linked genes. We explore the effects of polygenic selection on introgression under the infinitesimal model with linkage. This model assumes that the introgressing block has an effectively infinite number of genes, each with an infinitesimal effect on the trait under selection. The block is assumed to introgress under directional selection within a native population that is genetically homogeneous. We use individual-based simulations and a branching process approximation to compute various statistics of the introgressing block, and explore how these depend on parameters such as the map length and initial trait value associated with the introgressing block, the genetic variability along the block, and the strength of selection. Our results show that the introgression dynamics of a block under infinitesimal selection is qualitatively different from the dynamics of neutral introgression. We also find that in the long run, surviving descendant blocks are likely to have intermediate lengths, and clarify how the length is shaped by the interplay between linkage and infinitesimal selection. Our results suggest that it may be difficult to distinguish introgression of single loci from that of genomic blocks with multiple, tightly linked and weakly selected loci.},
  author       = {Sachdeva, Himani and Barton, Nicholas H},
  journal      = {Genetics},
  number       = {4},
  pages        = {1279 -- 1303},
  publisher    = {Genetics Society of America},
  title        = {{Introgression of a block of genome under infinitesimal selection}},
  doi          = {10.1534/genetics.118.301018},
  volume       = {209},
  year         = {2018},
}

@article{286,
  abstract     = {Pedigree and sibship reconstruction are important methods in quantifying relationships and fitness of individuals in natural populations. Current methods employ a Markov chain-based algorithm to explore plausible possible pedigrees iteratively. This provides accurate results, but is time-consuming. Here, we develop a method to infer sibship and paternity relationships from half-sibling arrays of known maternity using hierarchical clustering. Given 50 or more unlinked SNP markers and empirically derived error rates, the method performs as well as the widely used package Colony, but is faster by two orders of magnitude. Using simulations, we show that the method performs well across contrasting mating scenarios, even when samples are large. We then apply the method to open-pollinated arrays of the snapdragon Antirrhinum majus and find evidence for a high degree of multiple mating. Although we focus on diploid SNP data, the method does not depend on marker type and as such has broad applications in nonmodel systems. },
  author       = {Ellis, Thomas and Field, David and Barton, Nicholas H},
  journal      = {Molecular Ecology Resources},
  number       = {5},
  pages        = {988 -- 999},
  publisher    = {Wiley},
  title        = {{Efficient inference of paternity and sibship inference given known maternity via hierarchical clustering}},
  doi          = {10.1111/1755-0998.12782},
  volume       = {18},
  year         = {2018},
}

@article{315,
  abstract     = {More than 100 years after Grigg’s influential analysis of species’ borders, the causes of limits to species’ ranges still represent a puzzle that has never been understood with clarity. The topic has become especially important recently as many scientists have become interested in the potential for species’ ranges to shift in response to climate change—and yet nearly all of those studies fail to recognise or incorporate evolutionary genetics in a way that relates to theoretical developments. I show that range margins can be understood based on just two measurable parameters: (i) the fitness cost of dispersal—a measure of environmental heterogeneity—and (ii) the strength of genetic drift, which reduces genetic diversity. Together, these two parameters define an ‘expansion threshold’: adaptation fails when genetic drift reduces genetic diversity below that required for adaptation to a heterogeneous environment. When the key parameters drop below this expansion threshold locally, a sharp range margin forms. When they drop below this threshold throughout the species’ range, adaptation collapses everywhere, resulting in either extinction or formation of a fragmented metapopulation. Because the effects of dispersal differ fundamentally with dimension, the second parameter—the strength of genetic drift—is qualitatively different compared to a linear habitat. In two-dimensional habitats, genetic drift becomes effectively independent of selection. It decreases with ‘neighbourhood size’—the number of individuals accessible by dispersal within one generation. Moreover, in contrast to earlier predictions, which neglected evolution of genetic variance and/or stochasticity in two dimensions, dispersal into small marginal populations aids adaptation. This is because the reduction of both genetic and demographic stochasticity has a stronger effect than the cost of dispersal through increased maladaptation. The expansion threshold thus provides a novel, theoretically justified, and testable prediction for formation of the range margin and collapse of the species’ range.},
  author       = {Polechova, Jitka},
  issn         = {1544-9173},
  journal      = {PLoS Biology},
  number       = {6},
  publisher    = {Public Library of Science},
  title        = {{Is the sky the limit? On the expansion threshold of a species’ range}},
  doi          = {10.1371/journal.pbio.2005372},
  volume       = {16},
  year         = {2018},
}

