@misc{9754, abstract = {Short-read sequencing technologies have in principle made it feasible to draw detailed inferences about the recent history of any organism. In practice, however, this remains challenging due to the difficulty of genome assembly in most organisms and the lack of statistical methods powerful enough to discriminate among recent, non-equilibrium histories. We address both the assembly and inference challenges. We develop a bioinformatic pipeline for generating outgroup-rooted alignments of orthologous sequence blocks from de novo low-coverage short-read data for a small number of genomes, and show how such sequence blocks can be used to fit explicit models of population divergence and admixture in a likelihood framework. To illustrate our approach, we reconstruct the Pleistocene history of an oak-feeding insect (the oak gallwasp Biorhiza pallida) which, in common with many other taxa, was restricted during Pleistocene ice ages to a longitudinal series of southern refugia spanning theWestern Palaearctic. Our analysis of sequence blocks sampled from a single genome from each of three major glacial refugia reveals support for an unexpected history dominated by recent admixture. Despite the fact that 80% of the genome is affected by admixture during the last glacial cycle, we are able to infer the deeper divergence history of these populations. These inferences are robust to variation in block length, mutation model, and the sampling location of individual genomes within refugia. This combination of de novo assembly and numerical likelihood calculation provides a powerful framework for estimating recent population history that can be applied to any organism without the need for prior genetic resources.}, author = {Hearn, Jack and Stone, Graham and Barton, Nicholas H and Lohse, Konrad and Bunnefeld, Lynsey}, publisher = {Dryad}, title = {{Data from: Likelihood-based inference of population history from low coverage de novo genome assemblies}}, doi = {10.5061/dryad.r3r60}, year = {2013}, } @article{2917, abstract = {The search for extra-terrestrial intelligence (SETI) has been performed principally as a one-way survey, listening of radio frequencies across the Milky Way and other galaxies. However, scientists have engaged in an active messaging only rarely. This suggests the simple rationale that if other civilizations exist and take a similar approach to ours, namely listening but not broadcasting, the result is a silent universe. A simple game theoretical model, the prisoner's dilemma, explains this situation: each player (civilization) can passively search (defect), or actively search and broadcast (cooperate). In order to maximize the payoff (or, equivalently, minimize the risks) the best strategy is not to broadcast. In fact, the active search has been opposed on the basis that it might be dangerous to expose ourselves. However, most of these ideas have not been based on objective arguments, and ignore accounting of the possible gains and losses. Thus, the question stands: should we perform an active search? I develop a game-theoretical framework where civilizations can be of different types, and explicitly apply it to a situation where societies are either interested in establishing a two-way communication or belligerent and in urge to exploit ours. The framework gives a quantitative solution (a mixed-strategy), which is how frequent we should perform the active SETI. This frequency is roughly proportional to the inverse of the risk, and can be extremely small. However, given the immense amount of stars being scanned, it supports active SETI. The model is compared with simulations, and the possible actions are evaluated through the San Marino scale, measuring the risks of messaging.}, author = {Vladar, Harold}, journal = {International Journal of Astrobiology}, number = {1}, pages = {53 -- 62}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, title = {{The game of active search for extra terrestrial intelligence Breaking the Great Silence }}, doi = {10.1017/S1473550412000407}, volume = {12}, year = {2012}, } @article{2962, abstract = {The choice of summary statistics is a crucial step in approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). Since statistics are often not sufficient, this choice involves a trade-off between loss of information and reduction of dimensionality. The latter may increase the efficiency of ABC. Here, we propose an approach for choosing summary statistics based on boosting, a technique from the machine learning literature. We consider different types of boosting and compare them to partial least squares regression as an alternative. To mitigate the lack of sufficiency, we also propose an approach for choosing summary statistics locally, in the putative neighborhood of the true parameter value. We study a demographic model motivated by the re-introduction of Alpine ibex (Capra ibex) into the Swiss Alps. The parameters of interest are the mean and standard deviation across microsatellites of the scaled ancestral mutation rate (θanc = 4 Ne u), and the proportion of males obtaining access to matings per breeding season (ω). By simulation, we assess the properties of the posterior distribution obtained with the various methods. According to our criteria, ABC with summary statistics chosen locally via boosting with the L2-loss performs best. Applying that method to the ibex data, we estimate θanc ≈ 1.288, and find that most of the variation across loci of the ancestral mutation rate u is between 7.7×10−4 and 3.5×10−3 per locus per generation. The proportion of males with access to matings is estimated to ω ≈ 0.21, which is in good agreement with recent independent estimates.}, author = {Aeschbacher, Simon and Beaumont, Mark and Futschik, Andreas}, journal = {Genetics}, number = {3}, pages = {1027 -- 1047}, publisher = {Genetics Society of America}, title = {{A novel approach for choosing summary statistics in approximate Bayesian computation}}, doi = {10.1534/genetics.112.143164}, volume = {192}, year = {2012}, } @article{2968, abstract = {Little is known about the stability of trophic relationships in complex natural communities over evolutionary timescales. Here, we use sequence data from 18 nuclear loci to reconstruct and compare the intraspecific histories of major Pleistocene refugial populations in the Middle East, the Balkans and Iberia in a guild of four Chalcid parasitoids (Cecidostiba fungosa, Cecidostiba semifascia, Hobbya stenonota and Mesopolobus amaenus) all attacking Cynipid oak galls. We develop a likelihood method to numerically estimate models of divergence between three populations from multilocus data. We investigate the power of this framework on simulated data, and-using triplet alignments of intronic loci-quantify the support for all possible divergence relationships between refugial populations in the four parasitoids. Although an East to West order of population divergence has highest support in all but one species, we cannot rule out alternative population tree topologies. Comparing the estimated times of population splits between species, we find that one species, M. amaenus, has a significantly older history than the rest of the guild and must have arrived in central Europe at least one glacial cycle prior to other guild members. This suggests that although all four species may share a common origin in the East, they expanded westwards into Europe at different times. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.}, author = {Lohse, Konrad and Barton, Nicholas H and Melika, George and Stone, Graham}, journal = {Molecular Ecology}, number = {18}, pages = {4605 -- 4617}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, title = {{A likelihood based comparison of population histories in a parasitoid guild}}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-294X.2012.05700.x}, volume = {21}, year = {2012}, } @misc{13075, abstract = {Little is known about the stability of trophic relationships in complex natural communities over evolutionary timescales. Here, we use sequence data from 18 nuclear loci to reconstruct and compare the intraspecific histories of major Pleistocene refugial populations in the Middle East, the Balkans and Iberia in a guild of four Chalcid parasitoids (Cecidostiba fungosa, C. semifascia, Hobbya stenonota and Mesopolobus amaenus) all attacking Cynipid oak galls. We develop a likelihood method to numerically estimate models of divergence between three populations from multilocus data. We investigate the power of this framework on simulated data, and - using triplet alignments of intronic loci - quantify the support for all possible divergence relationships between refugial populations in the four parasitoids. Although an East to West order of population divergence has highest support in all but one species, we cannot rule out alternative population tree topologies. Comparing the estimated times of population splits between species, we find that one species, M. amaenus, has a significantly older history than the rest of the guild and must have arrived in central Europe at least one glacial cycle prior to other guild members. This suggests that although all four species may share a common origin in the East, they expanded westwards into Europe at different times.}, author = {Lohse, Konrad and Barton, Nicholas H and Stone, Graham and Melika, George}, publisher = {Dryad}, title = {{Data from: A likelihood-based comparison of population histories in a parasitoid guild}}, doi = {10.5061/DRYAD.0G0FS}, year = {2012}, } @article{498, abstract = {Understanding patterns and correlates of local adaptation in heterogeneous landscapes can provide important information in the selection of appropriate seed sources for restoration. We assessed the extent of local adaptation of fitness components in 12 population pairs of the perennial herb Rutidosis leptorrhynchoides (Asteraceae) and examined whether spatial scale (0.7-600 km), environmental distance, quantitative (QST) and neutral (FST) genetic differentiation, and size of the local and foreign populations could predict patterns of adaptive differentiation. Local adaptation varied among populations and fitness components. Including all population pairs, local adaptation was observed for seedling survival, but not for biomass, while foreign genotype advantage was observed for reproduction (number of inflorescences). Among population pairs, local adaptation increased with QST and local population size for biomass. QST was associated with environmental distance, suggesting ecological selection for phenotypic divergence. However, low FST and variation in population structure in small populations demonstrates the interaction of gene flow and drift in constraining local adaptation in R. leptorrhynchoides. Our study indicates that for species in heterogeneous landscapes, collecting seed from large populations from similar environments to candidate sites is likely to provide the most appropriate seed sources for restoration.}, author = {Pickup, Melinda and Field, David and Rowell, David and Young, Andrew}, journal = {Evolutionary Applications}, number = {8}, pages = {913 -- 924}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, title = {{Predicting local adaptation in fragmented plant populations: Implications for restoration genetics}}, doi = {10.1111/j.1752-4571.2012.00284.x}, volume = {5}, year = {2012}, } @misc{9758, abstract = {We propose a two-step procedure for estimating multiple migration rates in an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) framework, accounting for global nuisance parameters. The approach is not limited to migration, but generally of interest for inference problems with multiple parameters and a modular structure (e.g. independent sets of demes or loci). We condition on a known, but complex demographic model of a spatially subdivided population, motivated by the reintroduction of Alpine ibex (Capra ibex) into Switzerland. In the first step, the global parameters ancestral mutation rate and male mating skew have been estimated for the whole population in Aeschbacher et al. (Genetics 2012; 192: 1027). In the second step, we estimate in this study the migration rates independently for clusters of demes putatively connected by migration. For large clusters (many migration rates), ABC faces the problem of too many summary statistics. We therefore assess by simulation if estimation per pair of demes is a valid alternative. We find that the trade-off between reduced dimensionality for the pairwise estimation on the one hand and lower accuracy due to the assumption of pairwise independence on the other depends on the number of migration rates to be inferred: the accuracy of the pairwise approach increases with the number of parameters, relative to the joint estimation approach. To distinguish between low and zero migration, we perform ABC-type model comparison between a model with migration and one without. Applying the approach to microsatellite data from Alpine ibex, we find no evidence for substantial gene flow via migration, except for one pair of demes in one direction.}, author = {Aeschbacher, Simon and Futschik, Andreas and Beaumont, Mark}, publisher = {Dryad}, title = {{Data from: Approximate Bayesian computation for modular inference problems with many parameters: the example of migration rates}}, doi = {10.5061/dryad.274b1}, year = {2012}, } @article{3122, abstract = {Since Darwin's pioneering research on plant reproductive biology (e.g. Darwin 1877), understanding the mechanisms maintaining the diverse sexual strategies of plants has remained an important challenge for evolutionary biologists. In some species, populations are sexually polymorphic and contain two or more mating morphs (sex phenotypes). Differences in morphology or phenology among the morphs influence patterns of non-random mating. In these populations, negative frequency-dependent selection arising from disassortative (intermorph) mating is usually required for the evolutionary maintenance of sexual polymorphism, but few studies have demonstrated the required patterns of non-random mating. In the current issue of Molecular Ecology, Shang (2012) make an important contribution to our understanding of how disassortative mating influences sex phenotype ratios in Acer pictum subsp. mono (painted maple), a heterodichogamous, deciduous tree of eastern China. They monitored sex expression in 97 adults and used paternity analysis of open-pollinated seed to examine disassortative mating among three sex phenotypes. Using a deterministic 'pollen transfer' model, Shang et al. present convincing evidence that differences in the degree of disassortative mating in progeny arrays of the sex phenotypes can explain their uneven frequencies in the adult population. This study provides a useful example of how the deployment of genetic markers, demographic monitoring and modelling can be integrated to investigate the maintenance of sexual diversity in plants. }, author = {Field, David and Barrett, Spencer}, journal = {Molecular Ecology}, number = {15}, pages = {3640 -- 3643}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, title = {{Disassortative mating and the maintenance of sexual polymorphism in painted maple}}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-294X.2012.05643.x}, volume = {21}, year = {2012}, } @article{3131, abstract = {In large populations, many beneficial mutations may be simultaneously available and may compete with one another, slowing adaptation. By finding the probability of fixation of a favorable allele in a simple model of a haploid sexual population, we find limits to the rate of adaptive substitution, Λ, that depend on simple parameter combinations. When variance in fitness is low and linkage is loose, the baseline rate of substitution is Λ 0=2NU〈s〉 is the population size, U is the rate of beneficial mutations per genome, and 〈s〉 is their mean selective advantage. Heritable variance ν in log fitness due to unlinked loci reduces Λ by e -4ν under polygamy and e -8ν under monogamy. With a linear genetic map of length R Morgans, interference is yet stronger. We use a scaling argument to show that the density of adaptive substitutions depends on s, N, U, and R only through the baseline density: Λ/R=F(Λ 0/R). Under the approximation that the interference due to different sweeps adds up, we show that Λ/R~(Λ 0/R)/(1+2Λ 0/R), implying that interference prevents the rate of adaptive substitution from exceeding one per centimorgan per 200 generations. Simulations and numerical calculations confirm the scaling argument and confirm the additive approximation for Λ 0/R 1; for higher Λ 0/R, the rate of adaptation grows above R/2, but only very slowly. We also consider the effect of sweeps on neutral diversity and show that, while even occasional sweeps can greatly reduce neutral diversity, this effect saturates as sweeps become more common-diversity can be maintained even in populations experiencing very strong interference. Our results indicate that for some organisms the rate of adaptive substitution may be primarily recombination-limited, depending only weakly on the mutation supply and the strength of selection.}, author = {Weissman, Daniel and Barton, Nicholas H}, journal = {PLoS Genetics}, number = {6}, publisher = {Public Library of Science}, title = {{Limits to the rate of adaptive substitution in sexual populations}}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pgen.1002740}, volume = {8}, year = {2012}, } @article{3166, abstract = {There is evidence that the genetic code was established prior to the existence of proteins, when metabolism was powered by ribozymes. Also, early proto-organisms had to rely on simple anaerobic bioenergetic processes. In this work I propose that amino acid fermentation powered metabolism in the RNA world, and that this was facilitated by proto-adapters, the precursors of the tRNAs. Amino acids were used as carbon sources rather than as catalytic or structural elements. In modern bacteria, amino acid fermentation is known as the Stickland reaction. This pathway involves two amino acids: the first undergoes oxidative deamination, and the second acts as an electron acceptor through reductive deamination. This redox reaction results in two keto acids that are employed to synthesise ATP via substrate-level phosphorylation. The Stickland reaction is the basic bioenergetic pathway of some bacteria of the genus Clostridium. Two other facts support Stickland fermentation in the RNA world. First, several Stickland amino acid pairs are synthesised in abiotic amino acid synthesis. This suggests that amino acids that could be used as an energy substrate were freely available. Second, anticodons that have complementary sequences often correspond to amino acids that form Stickland pairs. The main hypothesis of this paper is that pairs of complementary proto-adapters were assigned to Stickland amino acids pairs. There are signatures of this hypothesis in the genetic code. Furthermore, it is argued that the proto-adapters formed double strands that brought amino acid pairs into proximity to facilitate their mutual redox reaction, structurally constraining the anticodon pairs that are assigned to these amino acid pairs. Significance tests which randomise the code are performed to study the extent of the variability of the energetic (ATP) yield. Random assignments can lead to a substantial yield of ATP and maintain enough variability, thus selection can act and refine the assignments into a proto-code that optimises the energetic yield. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to evaluate the establishment of these simple proto-codes, based on amino acid substitutions and codon swapping. In all cases, donor amino acids are assigned to anticodons composed of U+G, and have low redundancy (1-2 codons), whereas acceptor amino acids are assigned to the the remaining codons. These bioenergetic and structural constraints allow for a metabolic role for amino acids before their co-option as catalyst cofactors. Reviewers: this article was reviewed by Prof. William Martin, Prof. Eors Szathmary (nominated by Dr. Gaspar Jekely) and Dr. Adam Kun (nominated by Dr. Sandor Pongor)}, author = {Vladar, Harold}, journal = {Biology Direct}, publisher = {BioMed Central}, title = {{Amino acid fermentation at the origin of the genetic code}}, doi = {10.1186/1745-6150-7-6}, volume = {7}, year = {2012}, } @inbook{3277, abstract = {The problem of the origin of metazoa is becoming more urgent in the context of astrobiology. By now it is clear that clues to the understanding of this crucial transition in the evolution of life can arise in a fourth pathway besides the three possibilities in the quest for simplicity outlined by Bonner in his classical book. In other words, solar system exploration seems to be one way in the long-term to elucidate the simplicity of evolutionary development. We place these ideas in the context of different inheritance systems, namely the genotypic and phenotypic replicators with limited or unlimited heredity, and ask which of these can support multicellular development, and to which degree of complexity. However, the quest for evidence on the evolution of biotas from planets around other stars does not seem to be feasible with present technology with direct visualization of living organisms on exoplanets. But this may be attempted on the Galilean moons of Jupiter where there is a possibility of detecting reliable biomarkers in the next decade with the Europa Jupiter System Mission, in view of recent progress by landing micropenetrators on planetary, or satellite surfaces. Mars is a second possibility in the inner Solar System, in spite of the multiple difficulties faced by the fleet of past, present and future missions. We discuss a series of preliminary ideas for elucidating the origin of metazoan analogues with available instrumentation in potential payloads of feasible space missions to the Galilean moons.}, author = {de Vladar, Harold and Chela Flores, Julian}, booktitle = {Life on Earth and other planetary bodies}, pages = {387 -- 405}, publisher = {Springer}, title = {{Can the evolution of multicellularity be anticipated in the exploration of the solar system?}}, doi = {10.1007/978-94-007-4966-5_22}, volume = {24}, year = {2012}, } @misc{9762, abstract = {Defining population structure and genetic diversity levels is of the utmost importance for developing efficient conservation strategies. Overfishing has caused mean annual catches of the European spiny lobster (Palinurus elephas) to decrease alarmingly along its distribution area. In this context, there is a need for comprehensive studies to evaluate the genetic health of the exploited populations. The present work is based on a set of 10 nuclear markers amplified in 331 individuals from 10 different localities covering most of P. elephas distribution area. Samples from Atlantic and Mediterranean basins showed small but significant differences, indicating that P. elephas populations do not behave as a single panmictic unit but form two partially-overlapping groups. Despite intense overfishing, our dataset did not recover a recent bottleneck signal, and showed a large and stable historical effective size instead. This result could be accounted for by specific life history traits (reproduction and longevity) and the limitations of molecular markers in covering very recent timescales for non temporal samples. Our study emphasizes the necessity of integrating information on effective population sizes and life history parameters when evaluating population connectivity levels from genetic data.}, author = {Palero, Ferran and Abello, Pere and Macpherson, Enrique and Beaumont, Mark and Pascual, Marta}, publisher = {IST Austria}, title = {{Data from: Effect of oceanographic barriers and overfishing on the population genetic structure of the European spiny lobster (Palinurus elephas)}}, doi = {10.5061/dryad.299h8}, year = {2011}, } @article{3290, abstract = {Analysis of genomic data requires an efficient way to calculate likelihoods across very large numbers of loci. We describe a general method for finding the distribution of genealogies: we allow migration between demes, splitting of demes [as in the isolation-with-migration (IM) model], and recombination between linked loci. These processes are described by a set of linear recursions for the generating function of branch lengths. Under the infinite-sites model, the probability of any configuration of mutations can be found by differentiating this generating function. Such calculations are feasible for small numbers of sampled genomes: as an example, we show how the generating function can be derived explicitly for three genes under the two-deme IM model. This derivation is done automatically, using Mathematica. Given data from a large number of unlinked and nonrecombining blocks of sequence, these results can be used to find maximum-likelihood estimates of model parameters by tabulating the probabilities of all relevant mutational configurations and then multiplying across loci. The feasibility of the method is demonstrated by applying it to simulated data and to a data set previously analyzed by Wang and Hey (2010) consisting of 26,141 loci sampled from Drosophila simulans and D. melanogaster. Our results suggest that such likelihood calculations are scalable to genomic data as long as the numbers of sampled individuals and mutations per sequence block are small.}, author = {Lohse, Konrad and Harrison, Richard and Barton, Nicholas H}, journal = {Genetics}, number = {3}, pages = {977 -- 987}, publisher = {Genetics Society of America}, title = {{A general method for calculating likelihoods under the coalescent process}}, doi = {10.1534/genetics.111.129569}, volume = {189}, year = {2011}, } @article{3372, abstract = {Nowak et al.1 argue that inclusive fitness theory has been of little value in explaining the natural world, and that it has led to negligible progress in explaining the evolution of eusociality. However, we believe that their arguments are based upon a misunderstanding of evolutionary theory and a misrepresentation of the empirical literature. We will focus our comments on three general issues.}, author = {Abbot, Patrick and Abe, Jun and Alcock, John and Alizon, Samuel and Alpedrinha, Joao and Andersson, Malte and Andre, Jean and Van Baalen, Minus and Balloux, Francois and Balshine, Sigal and Barton, Nicholas H and Beukeboom, Leo and Biernaskie, Jay and Bilde, Trine and Borgia, Gerald and Breed, Michael and Brown, Sam and Bshary, Redouan and Buckling, Angus and Burley, Nancy and Burton Chellew, Max and Cant, Michael and Chapuisat, Michel and Charnov, Eric and Clutton Brock, Tim and Cockburn, Andrew and Cole, Blaine and Colegrave, Nick and Cosmides, Leda and Couzin, Iain and Coyne, Jerry and Creel, Scott and Crespi, Bernard and Curry, Robert and Dall, Sasha and Day, Troy and Dickinson, Janis and Dugatkin, Lee and El Mouden, Claire and Emlen, Stephen and Evans, Jay and Ferriere, Regis and Field, Jeremy and Foitzik, Susanne and Foster, Kevin and Foster, William and Fox, Charles and Gadau, Juergen and Gandon, Sylvain and Gardner, Andy and Gardner, Michael and Getty, Thomas and Goodisman, Michael and Grafen, Alan and Grosberg, Rick and Grozinger, Christina and Gouyon, Pierre and Gwynne, Darryl and Harvey, Paul and Hatchwell, Ben and Heinze, Jürgen and Helantera, Heikki and Helms, Ken and Hill, Kim and Jiricny, Natalie and Johnstone, Rufus and Kacelnik, Alex and Kiers, E Toby and Kokko, Hanna and Komdeur, Jan and Korb, Judith and Kronauer, Daniel and Kümmerli, Rolf and Lehmann, Laurent and Linksvayer, Timothy and Lion, Sébastien and Lyon, Bruce and Marshall, James and Mcelreath, Richard and Michalakis, Yannis and Michod, Richard and Mock, Douglas and Monnin, Thibaud and Montgomerie, Robert and Moore, Allen and Mueller, Ulrich and Noë, Ronald and Okasha, Samir and Pamilo, Pekka and Parker, Geoff and Pedersen, Jes and Pen, Ido and Pfennig, David and Queller, David and Rankin, Daniel and Reece, Sarah and Reeve, Hudson and Reuter, Max and Roberts, Gilbert and Robson, Simon and Roze, Denis and Rousset, Francois and Rueppell, Olav and Sachs, Joel and Santorelli, Lorenzo and Schmid Hempel, Paul and Schwarz, Michael and Scott Phillips, Tom and Shellmann Sherman, Janet and Sherman, Paul and Shuker, David and Smith, Jeff and Spagna, Joseph and Strassmann, Beverly and Suarez, Andrew and Sundström, Liselotte and Taborsky, Michael and Taylor, Peter and Thompson, Graham and Tooby, John and Tsutsui, Neil and Tsuji, Kazuki and Turillazzi, Stefano and Úbeda, Francisco and Vargo, Edward and Voelkl, Bernard and Wenseleers, Tom and West, Stuart and West Eberhard, Mary and Westneat, David and Wiernasz, Diane and Wild, Geoff and Wrangham, Richard and Young, Andrew and Zeh, David and Zeh, Jeanne and Zink, Andrew}, journal = {Nature}, number = {7339}, pages = {E1 -- E4}, publisher = {Nature Publishing Group}, title = {{Inclusive fitness theory and eusociality}}, doi = {10.1038/nature09831}, volume = {471}, year = {2011}, } @article{3375, abstract = {By exploiting an analogy between population genetics and statistical mechanics, we study the evolution of a polygenic trait under stabilizing selection, mutation and genetic drift. This requires us to track only four macroscopic variables, instead of the distribution of all the allele frequencies that influence the trait. These macroscopic variables are the expectations of: the trait mean and its square, the genetic variance, and of a measure of heterozygosity, and are derived from a generating function that is in turn derived by maximizing an entropy measure. These four macroscopics are enough to accurately describe the dynamics of the trait mean and of its genetic variance (and in principle of any other quantity). Unlike previous approaches that were based on an infinite series of moments or cumulants, which had to be truncated arbitrarily, our calculations provide a well-defined approximation procedure. We apply the framework to abrupt and gradual changes in the optimum, as well as to changes in the strength of stabilizing selection. Our approximations are surprisingly accurate, even for systems with as few as five loci. We find that when the effects of drift are included, the expected genetic variance is hardly altered by directional selection, even though it fluctuates in any particular instance. We also find hysteresis, showing that even after averaging over the microscopic variables, the macroscopic trajectories retain a memory of the underlying genetic states.}, author = {de Vladar, Harold and Barton, Nicholas H}, journal = {Journal of the Royal Society Interface}, number = {58}, pages = {720 -- 739}, publisher = {The Royal Society}, title = {{The statistical mechanics of a polygenic character under stabilizing selection mutation and drift}}, doi = {10.1098/rsif.2010.0438}, volume = {8}, year = {2011}, } @article{3380, abstract = {Linkage between markers and genes that affect a phenotype of interest may be determined by examining differences in marker allele frequency in the extreme progeny of a cross between two inbred lines. This strategy is usually employed when pooling is used to reduce genotyping costs. When the cross progeny are asexual, the extreme progeny may be selected by multiple generations of asexual reproduction and selection. We analyse this method of measuring phenotype in asexual progeny and examine the changes in marker allele frequency due to selection over many generations. Stochasticity in marker frequency in the selected population arises due to the finite initial population size. We derive the distribution of marker frequency as a result of selection at a single major locus, and show that in order to avoid spurious changes in marker allele frequency in the selected population, the initial population size should be in the low to mid hundreds.}, author = {Logeswaran, Sayanthan and Barton, Nicholas H}, journal = {Genetical Research}, number = {3}, pages = {221 -- 232}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, title = {{Mapping Mendelian traits in asexual progeny using changes in marker allele frequency}}, doi = {10.1017/S0016672311000115}, volume = {93}, year = {2011}, } @article{3390, abstract = {What determines the genetic contribution that an individual makes to future generations? With biparental reproduction, each individual leaves a 'pedigree' of descendants, determined by the biparental relationships in the population. The pedigree of an individual constrains the lines of descent of each of its genes. An individual's reproductive value is the expected number of copies of each of its genes that is passed on to distant generations conditional on its pedigree. For the simplest model of biparental reproduction analogous to the Wright-Fisher model, an individual's reproductive value is determined within ~10 generations, independent of population size. Partial selfing and subdivision do not greatly slow this convergence. Our central result is that the probability that a gene will survive is proportional to the reproductive value of the individual that carries it, and that conditional on survival, after a few tens of generations, the distribution of the number of surviving copies is the same for all individuals, whatever their reproductive value. These results can be generalized to the joint distribution of surviving blocks of ancestral genome. Selection on unlinked loci in the genetic background may greatly increase the variance in reproductive value, but the above results nevertheless still hold. The almost linear relationship between survival probability and reproductive value also holds for weakly favored alleles. Thus, the influence of the complex pedigree of descendants on an individual's genetic contribution to the population can be summarized through a single number: its reproductive value.}, author = {Barton, Nicholas H and Etheridge, Alison}, journal = {Genetics}, number = {4}, pages = {953 -- 973}, publisher = {Genetics Society of America}, title = {{The relation between reproductive value and genetic contribution}}, doi = {10.1534/genetics.111.127555}, volume = {188}, year = {2011}, } @article{3391, abstract = {Evolutionary biology shares many concepts with statistical physics: both deal with populations, whether of molecules or organisms, and both seek to simplify evolution in very many dimensions. Often, methodologies have undergone parallel and independent development, as with stochastic methods in population genetics. Here, we discuss aspects of population genetics that have embraced methods from physics: non-equilibrium statistical mechanics, travelling waves and Monte-Carlo methods, among others, have been used to study polygenic evolution, rates of adaptation and range expansions. These applications indicate that evolutionary biology can further benefit from interactions with other areas of statistical physics; for example, by following the distribution of paths taken by a population through time}, author = {de Vladar, Harold and Barton, Nicholas H}, journal = {Trends in Ecology and Evolution}, number = {8}, pages = {424 -- 432}, publisher = {Cell Press}, title = {{The contribution of statistical physics to evolutionary biology}}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2011.04.002}, volume = {26}, year = {2011}, } @article{3394, abstract = {Random genetic drift shifts clines in space, alters their width, and distorts their shape. Such random fluctuations complicate inferences from cline width and position. Notably, the effect of genetic drift on the expected shape of the cline is opposite to the naive (but quite common) misinterpretation of classic results on the expected cline. While random drift on average broadens the overall cline in expected allele frequency, it narrows the width of any particular cline. The opposing effects arise because locally, drift drives alleles to fixation—but fluctuations in position widen the expected cline. The effect of genetic drift can be predicted from standardized variance in allele frequencies, averaged across the habitat: 〈F〉. A cline maintained by spatially varying selection (step change) is expected to be narrower by a factor of relative to the cline in the absence of drift. The expected cline is broader by the inverse of this factor. In a tension zone maintained by underdominance, the expected cline width is narrower by about 1 – 〈F〉relative to the width in the absence of drift. Individual clines can differ substantially from the expectation, and we give quantitative predictions for the variance in cline position and width. The predictions apply to clines in almost one-dimensional circumstances such as hybrid zones in rivers, deep valleys, or along a coast line and give a guide to what patterns to expect in two dimensions.}, author = {Polechova, Jitka and Barton, Nicholas H}, journal = {Genetics}, number = {1}, pages = {227 -- 235}, publisher = {Genetics Society of America}, title = {{Genetic drift widens the expected cline but narrows the expected cline width}}, doi = {10.1534/genetics.111.129817}, volume = {189}, year = {2011}, } @article{3395, abstract = {Defining population structure and genetic diversity levels is of the utmost importance for developing efficient conservation strategies. Overfishing has caused mean annual catches of the European spiny lobster (Palinurus elephas) to decrease alarmingly along its distribution area. In this context, there is a need for comprehensive studies aiming to evaluate the genetic health of the exploited populations. The present study is based on a set of ten nuclear markers amplified in 331 individuals from ten different localities covering most of P. elephas distribution area. Samples from Atlantic and Mediterranean basins showed small but significant differences, indicating that P. elephas populations do not behave as a single panmictic unit but form two partially-overlapping groups. Despite intense overfishing, our dataset did not recover a recent bottleneck signal, and instead showed a large and stable historical effective size. This result could be accounted for by specific life-history traits (reproduction and longevity) and the limitations of molecular markers in covering recent timescales for nontemporal samples. The findings of the present study emphasize the need to integrate information on effective population sizes and life-history parameters when evaluating population connectivity levels from genetic data.}, author = {Palero, Ferran and Abello, Pere and Macpherson, Enrique and Beaumont, Mark and Pascual, Marta}, journal = {Biological Journal of the Linnean Society}, number = {2}, pages = {407 -- 418}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, title = {{Effect of oceanographic barriers and overfishing on the population genetic structure of the European spiny lobster Palinurus elephas}}, doi = {10.1111/j.1095-8312.2011.01728.x}, volume = {104}, year = {2011}, }