---
res:
  bibo_abstract:
  - Global services like navigation, communication, and Earth observation have increased
    dramatically in the 21st century due to advances in outer space industries. But
    as orbits become increasingly crowded with both satellites and inevitable space
    debris pollution, continued operations become endangered by the heightened risks
    of debris collisions in orbit. Kessler Syndrome is the term for when a critical
    threshold of orbiting debris triggers a runaway positive feedback loop of debris
    collisions, creating debris congestion that can render orbits unusable. As this
    potential tipping point becomes more widely recognized, there have been renewed
    calls for debris mitigation and removal. Here, we combine complex systems and
    social-ecological systems approaches to study how these efforts may affect space
    debris accumulation and the likelihood of reaching Kessler Syndrome. Specifically,
    we model how debris levels are affected by future launch rates, cleanup activities,
    and collisions between extant debris. We contextualize and interpret our dynamic
    model within a discussion of existing space debris governance and other social,
    economic, and geopolitical factors that may influence effective collective management
    of the orbital commons. In line with previous studies, our model finds that debris
    congestion may be reached in less than 200 years, though a holistic management
    strategy combining removal and mitigation actions can avoid such outcomes while
    continuing space activities. Moreover, although active debris removal may be particularly
    effective, the current lack of market and governance support may impede its implementation.
    Research into these critical dynamics and the multi-faceted variables that influence
    debris outcomes can support policymakers in curating impactful governance strategies
    and realistic transition pathways to sustaining debris-free orbits. Overall, our
    study is useful for communicating about space debris sustainability in policy
    and education settings by providing an exploration of policy portfolio options
    supported by a simple and clear social-ecological modeling approach.@eng
  bibo_authorlist:
  - foaf_Person:
      foaf_givenName: Keiko
      foaf_name: Nomura, Keiko
      foaf_surname: Nomura
  - foaf_Person:
      foaf_givenName: Simon
      foaf_name: Rella, Simon
      foaf_surname: Rella
      foaf_workInfoHomepage: http://www.librecat.org/personId=B4765ACA-AA38-11E9-AC9A-0930E6697425
  - foaf_Person:
      foaf_givenName: Haily
      foaf_name: Merritt, Haily
      foaf_surname: Merritt
  - foaf_Person:
      foaf_givenName: Mathieu
      foaf_name: Baltussen, Mathieu
      foaf_surname: Baltussen
  - foaf_Person:
      foaf_givenName: Darcy
      foaf_name: Bird, Darcy
      foaf_surname: Bird
  - foaf_Person:
      foaf_givenName: Annika
      foaf_name: Tjuka, Annika
      foaf_surname: Tjuka
  - foaf_Person:
      foaf_givenName: Dan
      foaf_name: Falk, Dan
      foaf_surname: Falk
  bibo_doi: 10.5334/ijc.1275
  bibo_issue: '1'
  bibo_volume: 18
  dct_date: 2024^xs_gYear
  dct_isPartOf:
  - http://id.crossref.org/issn/1875-0281
  dct_language: eng
  dct_publisher: Ubiquity Press@
  dct_subject:
  - Sociology and Political Science
  dct_title: Tipping points of space debris in low earth orbit@
...