{"acknowledgement":"The authors would like to thank the special issue co-editors, Marco Janssen and Xiao-Shan Yap, and the anonymous reviewers for their comments that helped improve the manuscript. The paper also benefited from suggestions by other author participants in this special issue. We would also like to thank the 2022 Santa Fe Institute Complex Systems Summer School for providing space to initiate this study.","file_date_updated":"2024-02-05T10:06:35Z","type":"journal_article","date_updated":"2024-02-05T10:10:27Z","user_id":"2DF688A6-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87","department":[{"_id":"GradSch"},{"_id":"GaTk"}],"doi":"10.5334/ijc.1275","oa_version":"Published Version","article_type":"original","status":"public","keyword":["Sociology and Political Science"],"_id":"14901","file":[{"file_size":1305786,"success":1,"date_updated":"2024-02-05T10:06:35Z","creator":"dernst","access_level":"open_access","date_created":"2024-02-05T10:06:35Z","file_name":"2023_IntJourCommons_Nomura.pdf","checksum":"b80ebc889033c365d8f8c05a0c655382","file_id":"14939","relation":"main_file","content_type":"application/pdf"}],"publication_status":"published","date_created":"2024-01-30T11:58:02Z","month":"01","publisher":"Ubiquity Press","publication":"International Journal of the Commons","issue":"1","publication_identifier":{"issn":["1875-0281"]},"ddc":["550"],"title":"Tipping points of space debris in low earth orbit","intvolume":"        18","citation":{"ama":"Nomura K, Rella S, Merritt H, et al. Tipping points of space debris in low earth orbit. <i>International Journal of the Commons</i>. 2024;18(1). doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.5334/ijc.1275\">10.5334/ijc.1275</a>","apa":"Nomura, K., Rella, S., Merritt, H., Baltussen, M., Bird, D., Tjuka, A., &#38; Falk, D. (2024). Tipping points of space debris in low earth orbit. <i>International Journal of the Commons</i>. Ubiquity Press. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.5334/ijc.1275\">https://doi.org/10.5334/ijc.1275</a>","chicago":"Nomura, Keiko, Simon Rella, Haily Merritt, Mathieu Baltussen, Darcy Bird, Annika Tjuka, and Dan Falk. “Tipping Points of Space Debris in Low Earth Orbit.” <i>International Journal of the Commons</i>. Ubiquity Press, 2024. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.5334/ijc.1275\">https://doi.org/10.5334/ijc.1275</a>.","short":"K. Nomura, S. Rella, H. Merritt, M. Baltussen, D. Bird, A. Tjuka, D. Falk, International Journal of the Commons 18 (2024).","ieee":"K. Nomura <i>et al.</i>, “Tipping points of space debris in low earth orbit,” <i>International Journal of the Commons</i>, vol. 18, no. 1. Ubiquity Press, 2024.","ista":"Nomura K, Rella S, Merritt H, Baltussen M, Bird D, Tjuka A, Falk D. 2024. Tipping points of space debris in low earth orbit. International Journal of the Commons. 18(1).","mla":"Nomura, Keiko, et al. “Tipping Points of Space Debris in Low Earth Orbit.” <i>International Journal of the Commons</i>, vol. 18, no. 1, Ubiquity Press, 2024, doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.5334/ijc.1275\">10.5334/ijc.1275</a>."},"article_processing_charge":"Yes","tmp":{"name":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (CC-BY 4.0)","legal_code_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode","short":"CC BY (4.0)","image":"/images/cc_by.png"},"has_accepted_license":"1","date_published":"2024-01-11T00:00:00Z","volume":18,"quality_controlled":"1","scopus_import":"1","year":"2024","abstract":[{"text":"Global services like navigation, communication, and Earth observation have increased dramatically in the 21st century due to advances in outer space industries. But as orbits become increasingly crowded with both satellites and inevitable space debris pollution, continued operations become endangered by the heightened risks of debris collisions in orbit. Kessler Syndrome is the term for when a critical threshold of orbiting debris triggers a runaway positive feedback loop of debris collisions, creating debris congestion that can render orbits unusable. As this potential tipping point becomes more widely recognized, there have been renewed calls for debris mitigation and removal. Here, we combine complex systems and social-ecological systems approaches to study how these efforts may affect space debris accumulation and the likelihood of reaching Kessler Syndrome. Specifically, we model how debris levels are affected by future launch rates, cleanup activities, and collisions between extant debris. We contextualize and interpret our dynamic model within a discussion of existing space debris governance and other social, economic, and geopolitical factors that may influence effective collective management of the orbital commons. In line with previous studies, our model finds that debris congestion may be reached in less than 200 years, though a holistic management strategy combining removal and mitigation actions can avoid such outcomes while continuing space activities. Moreover, although active debris removal may be particularly effective, the current lack of market and governance support may impede its implementation. Research into these critical dynamics and the multi-faceted variables that influence debris outcomes can support policymakers in curating impactful governance strategies and realistic transition pathways to sustaining debris-free orbits. Overall, our study is useful for communicating about space debris sustainability in policy and education settings by providing an exploration of policy portfolio options supported by a simple and clear social-ecological modeling approach.","lang":"eng"}],"oa":1,"author":[{"full_name":"Nomura, Keiko","first_name":"Keiko","last_name":"Nomura"},{"first_name":"Simon","last_name":"Rella","full_name":"Rella, Simon","id":"B4765ACA-AA38-11E9-AC9A-0930E6697425"},{"full_name":"Merritt, Haily","first_name":"Haily","last_name":"Merritt"},{"full_name":"Baltussen, Mathieu","first_name":"Mathieu","last_name":"Baltussen"},{"full_name":"Bird, Darcy","first_name":"Darcy","last_name":"Bird"},{"first_name":"Annika","last_name":"Tjuka","full_name":"Tjuka, Annika"},{"full_name":"Falk, Dan","first_name":"Dan","last_name":"Falk"}],"day":"11","language":[{"iso":"eng"}]}