{"OA_place":"publisher","volume":15696,"date_updated":"2025-06-02T09:45:41Z","status":"public","language":[{"iso":"eng"}],"arxiv":1,"author":[{"first_name":"Carlos E.","last_name":"Budde","full_name":"Budde, Carlos E."},{"full_name":"Hartmanns, Arnd","last_name":"Hartmanns","first_name":"Arnd"},{"orcid":"0000-0002-1712-2165","id":"b21b0c15-30a2-11eb-80dc-f13ca25802e1","full_name":"Meggendorfer, Tobias","last_name":"Meggendorfer","first_name":"Tobias"},{"first_name":"Maximilian","last_name":"Weininger","id":"02ab0197-cc70-11ed-ab61-918e71f56881","full_name":"Weininger, Maximilian"},{"last_name":"Wienhöft","first_name":"Patrick","full_name":"Wienhöft, Patrick"}],"has_accepted_license":"1","ec_funded":1,"type":"conference","oa_version":"Published Version","alternative_title":["LNCS"],"related_material":{"record":[{"id":"19769","relation":"research_data","status":"public"}]},"acknowledgement":"This work was supported by the DFG through the Cluster of Excellence EXC 2050/1 (CeTI, project ID 390696704, as part of Germany’s Excellence Strategy) and the TRR 248 (see perspicuous-computing.science, project ID 389792660), by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreements 101008233 (MISSION), 101034413 (IST-BRIDGE), and 101067199 (ProSVED), by the EU under NextGenerationEU projects D53D23008400006 (Smartitude) under MUR PRIN 2022 and PE00000014 (SERICS) under MUR PNRR, by the Interreg North Sea project STORM_SAFE, and by NWO VIDI grant VI.Vidi.223.110 (TruSTy).","conference":{"end_date":"2025-05-08","name":"TACAS: Tools and Algorithms for the Construction and Analysis of Systems","start_date":"2025-05-03","location":"Hamilton, ON, Canada"},"oa":1,"abstract":[{"lang":"eng","text":"Statistical model checking estimates probabilities and expectations of interest in probabilistic system models by using random simulations. Its results come with statistical guarantees. However, many tools use unsound statistical methods that produce incorrect results more often than they claim. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive overview of tools and their correctness, as well as of sound methods available for estimating probabilities from the literature. For expected rewards, we investigate how to bound the path reward distribution to apply sound statistical methods for bounded distributions, of which we recommend the Dvoretzky-Kiefer-Wolfowitz inequality that has not been used in SMC so far. We prove that even reachability rewards can be bounded in theory, and formalise the concept of limit-PAC procedures for a practical solution. The modes SMC tool implements our methods and recommendations, which we use to experimentally confirm our results."}],"quality_controlled":"1","department":[{"_id":"KrCh"}],"project":[{"call_identifier":"H2020","grant_number":"101034413","name":"IST-BRIDGE: International postdoctoral program","_id":"fc2ed2f7-9c52-11eb-aca3-c01059dda49c"}],"_id":"19742","tmp":{"name":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (CC-BY 4.0)","legal_code_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode","image":"/images/cc_by.png","short":"CC BY (4.0)"},"page":"167-190","date_published":"2025-05-01T00:00:00Z","ddc":["000"],"publication_status":"published","publication":"31st International Conference on Tools and Algorithms for the Construction and Analysis of Systems","day":"01","citation":{"short":"C.E. Budde, A. Hartmanns, T. Meggendorfer, M. Weininger, P. Wienhöft, in:, 31st International Conference on Tools and Algorithms for the Construction and Analysis of Systems, Springer Nature, 2025, pp. 167–190.","mla":"Budde, Carlos E., et al. “Sound Statistical Model Checking for Probabilities and Expected Rewards.” <i>31st International Conference on Tools and Algorithms for the Construction and Analysis of Systems</i>, vol. 15696, Springer Nature, 2025, pp. 167–90, doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-90643-5_9\">10.1007/978-3-031-90643-5_9</a>.","apa":"Budde, C. E., Hartmanns, A., Meggendorfer, T., Weininger, M., &#38; Wienhöft, P. (2025). Sound statistical model checking for probabilities and expected rewards. In <i>31st International Conference on Tools and Algorithms for the Construction and Analysis of Systems</i> (Vol. 15696, pp. 167–190). Hamilton, ON, Canada: Springer Nature. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-90643-5_9\">https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-90643-5_9</a>","ieee":"C. E. Budde, A. Hartmanns, T. Meggendorfer, M. Weininger, and P. Wienhöft, “Sound statistical model checking for probabilities and expected rewards,” in <i>31st International Conference on Tools and Algorithms for the Construction and Analysis of Systems</i>, Hamilton, ON, Canada, 2025, vol. 15696, pp. 167–190.","ista":"Budde CE, Hartmanns A, Meggendorfer T, Weininger M, Wienhöft P. 2025. Sound statistical model checking for probabilities and expected rewards. 31st International Conference on Tools and Algorithms for the Construction and Analysis of Systems. TACAS: Tools and Algorithms for the Construction and Analysis of Systems, LNCS, vol. 15696, 167–190.","ama":"Budde CE, Hartmanns A, Meggendorfer T, Weininger M, Wienhöft P. Sound statistical model checking for probabilities and expected rewards. In: <i>31st International Conference on Tools and Algorithms for the Construction and Analysis of Systems</i>. Vol 15696. Springer Nature; 2025:167-190. doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-90643-5_9\">10.1007/978-3-031-90643-5_9</a>","chicago":"Budde, Carlos E., Arnd Hartmanns, Tobias Meggendorfer, Maximilian Weininger, and Patrick Wienhöft. “Sound Statistical Model Checking for Probabilities and Expected Rewards.” In <i>31st International Conference on Tools and Algorithms for the Construction and Analysis of Systems</i>, 15696:167–90. Springer Nature, 2025. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-90643-5_9\">https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-90643-5_9</a>."},"publication_identifier":{"isbn":["9783031906428"],"eissn":["1611-3349"],"issn":["0302-9743"]},"title":"Sound statistical model checking for probabilities and expected rewards","file_date_updated":"2025-06-02T09:35:42Z","publisher":"Springer Nature","scopus_import":"1","intvolume":"     15696","external_id":{"arxiv":["2411.00559"]},"file":[{"creator":"dernst","access_level":"open_access","relation":"main_file","file_id":"19770","file_name":"2025_TACAS_Budde.pdf","date_created":"2025-06-02T09:35:42Z","success":1,"file_size":711271,"content_type":"application/pdf","date_updated":"2025-06-02T09:35:42Z","checksum":"d45856b503b1dd4f8f14c3566327225b"}],"article_processing_charge":"No","doi":"10.1007/978-3-031-90643-5_9","month":"05","user_id":"2DF688A6-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87","date_created":"2025-05-25T22:17:08Z","year":"2025","OA_type":"hybrid"}