---
APC_amount: 3774 EUR
DOAJ_listed: '1'
OA_place: publisher
OA_type: gold
_id: '20026'
abstract:
- lang: eng
text: Deep Convective Systems (DCSs) reaching scales of 100–1000 km play a pivotal
role as the primary precipitation source in the tropics. Those systems can have
large cloud shields, and thus not only affect severe precipitation patterns but
also play a crucial part in modulating the tropical radiation budget. Understanding
the complex factors that control how these systems grow and how they will behave
in a warming climate remain fundamental challenges. Research efforts have been
directed, on one hand, towards understanding the environmental control on these
systems, and on the other hand, towards exploring the internal potential of systems
to develop and self-aggregate in idealized simulations. However, we still lack
understanding on the relative role of the environment and internal feedbacks on
DCS mature size and why. The novel high-resolution global SAM simulation from
the DYAMOND project, combined with the TOOCAN Lagrangian tracking of DCSs and
machine learning tools, offers an unprecedented opportunity to explore this question.
We find that a system’s growth rate during the first 2 h of development predicts
its final size with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.65. Beyond this period,
growth rate emerges as the strongest predictor. However, in the early stages,
additional factors–such as ice water path heterogeneity, migration distance, interactions
with neighboring systems, and deep shear–play a more significant role. Our study
quantitatively assesses the relative influence of internal versus external factors
on the mature cloud shield size. Our results show that system-intrinsic properties
exert a stronger influence than environmental conditions, suggesting that the
initial environment does not strictly constrain final system size, particularly
for larger systems where internal dynamics dominate.
acknowledgement: C.M. and S.A. gratefully acknowledge funding from the European Research
Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program
(Project CLUSTER, grant agreement 805041), and from the PhD fellowship of Ecole
Normale Supérieure de Paris-Saclay. DYAMOND data management was provided by the
German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ) and supported through the projects ESiWACE
and ESiWACE2. The projects ESiWACE and ESiWACE2 have received funding from the European
Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreements No 675191
and 823988. This work used resources of the Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ)
granted by its Scientific Steering Committee (WLA) under project IDs bk1040 and
bb1153. The authors express their gratitude to Sophie Cloché and Eileen Hertwig
for their assistance in data archival at IPSL and DKRZ, respectively. We also thank
Christophe Lampert and Benjamin Fildier for valuable scientific discussions, and
acknowledge the thoughtful comments of two anonymous reviewers.
article_number: '258'
article_processing_charge: Yes
article_type: original
author:
- first_name: Sophie
full_name: Abramian, Sophie
last_name: Abramian
- first_name: Caroline J
full_name: Muller, Caroline J
id: f978ccb0-3f7f-11eb-b193-b0e2bd13182b
last_name: Muller
orcid: 0000-0001-5836-5350
- first_name: Camille
full_name: Risi, Camille
last_name: Risi
- first_name: Thomas
full_name: Fiolleau, Thomas
last_name: Fiolleau
- first_name: Rémy
full_name: Roca, Rémy
last_name: Roca
citation:
ama: Abramian S, Muller CJ, Risi C, Fiolleau T, Roca R. How key features of early
development shape deep convective systems. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science.
2025;8. doi:10.1038/s41612-025-01154-1
apa: Abramian, S., Muller, C. J., Risi, C., Fiolleau, T., & Roca, R. (2025).
How key features of early development shape deep convective systems. Npj Climate
and Atmospheric Science. Springer Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01154-1
chicago: Abramian, Sophie, Caroline J Muller, Camille Risi, Thomas Fiolleau, and
Rémy Roca. “How Key Features of Early Development Shape Deep Convective Systems.”
Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. Springer Nature, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01154-1.
ieee: S. Abramian, C. J. Muller, C. Risi, T. Fiolleau, and R. Roca, “How key features
of early development shape deep convective systems,” npj Climate and Atmospheric
Science, vol. 8. Springer Nature, 2025.
ista: Abramian S, Muller CJ, Risi C, Fiolleau T, Roca R. 2025. How key features
of early development shape deep convective systems. npj Climate and Atmospheric
Science. 8, 258.
mla: Abramian, Sophie, et al. “How Key Features of Early Development Shape Deep
Convective Systems.” Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, vol. 8, 258,
Springer Nature, 2025, doi:10.1038/s41612-025-01154-1.
short: S. Abramian, C.J. Muller, C. Risi, T. Fiolleau, R. Roca, Npj Climate and
Atmospheric Science 8 (2025).
date_created: 2025-07-20T22:01:59Z
date_published: 2025-07-08T00:00:00Z
date_updated: 2026-05-20T08:39:39Z
day: '08'
ddc:
- '550'
department:
- _id: CaMu
doi: 10.1038/s41612-025-01154-1
ec_funded: 1
external_id:
isi:
- '001524244500001'
file:
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checksum: 8113405b3e52024b24621ea21d89b3ab
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creator: dernst
date_created: 2025-07-22T06:02:14Z
date_updated: 2025-07-22T06:02:14Z
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file_name: 2025_njpClimate_Abramian.pdf
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has_accepted_license: '1'
intvolume: ' 8'
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language:
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month: '07'
oa: 1
oa_version: Published Version
project:
- _id: 629205d8-2b32-11ec-9570-e1356ff73576
call_identifier: H2020
grant_number: '805041'
name: Organization of CLoUdS, and implications of Tropical cyclones and for the
Energetics of the tropics, in current and waRming climate
publication: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
publication_identifier:
eissn:
- 2397-3722
publication_status: published
publisher: Springer Nature
quality_controlled: '1'
scopus_import: '1'
status: public
title: How key features of early development shape deep convective systems
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legal_code_url: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/legalcode
name: Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
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short: CC BY-NC-ND (4.0)
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...