{"page":"1243-1255","date_created":"2025-07-21T07:57:28Z","article_processing_charge":"Yes (in subscription journal)","project":[{"grant_number":"101034413","name":"IST-BRIDGE: International postdoctoral program","call_identifier":"H2020","_id":"fc2ed2f7-9c52-11eb-aca3-c01059dda49c"}],"status":"public","year":"2025","acknowledgement":"Support for this research came from the European Society of Evolutionary Biology (ESEB) through a “Special Topics Network” grant. Further financial support came from the European Research Council (ERC-2023-STG916 #101117517, to C.O.), the Swedish Research Council (#2022-03603, to C.O.; #2020‑03123, to E.I.S.), the Research Council of Norway (Norges forskningsråd #302619, to D.G.), the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation and the GenEvo graduate school (to H.K.), the Foundation for Zoological Research and the Birgitta Sintring Foundation (#S2024-0007, to M.K.Z.), a postdoctoral fellowship from the Consejo Nacional de Humanidades, Ciencias y Tecnología (to A.N.B.), and a H2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie COFUND Action fellowship (#101034413, to F.R.). We wish to express our deepest gratitude to Lotte de Vries for extensive discussion of the project, rederiving some of our results, and providing comments on an earlier version of the manuscript, and to the European Society of Evolutionary Biology (ESEB) for a “Special Topics Network” grant that supported workshops that initiated this collaboration and facilitated many new ideas and friendships. We also thank two anonymous reviewers for their thoughtful comments and suggestions that helped us to substantially improve upon the original version of the article.","month":"07","_id":"20044","quality_controlled":"1","day":"01","publication_status":"published","doi":"10.1093/evolut/qpaf061","author":[{"last_name":"Connallon","full_name":"Connallon, Tim","first_name":"Tim"},{"last_name":"Czuppon","full_name":"Czuppon, Peter","first_name":"Peter"},{"first_name":"Colin","full_name":"Olito, Colin","last_name":"Olito"},{"first_name":"Debora","full_name":"Goedert, Debora","last_name":"Goedert"},{"first_name":"Hanna","last_name":"Kokko","full_name":"Kokko, Hanna"},{"first_name":"Angela","full_name":"Nava-Bolaños, Angela","last_name":"Nava-Bolaños"},{"first_name":"Sofie","last_name":"Nilén","full_name":"Nilén, Sofie"},{"full_name":"Svensson, Erik I","last_name":"Svensson","first_name":"Erik I"},{"full_name":"Zwoinska, Martyna","last_name":"Zwoinska","first_name":"Martyna"},{"last_name":"Dutoit","full_name":"Dutoit, Ludovic","first_name":"Ludovic"},{"first_name":"Filip","full_name":"Ruzicka, Filip","last_name":"Ruzicka","id":"347955dd-57b0-11ee-9095-c28bdd368f4b"}],"publisher":"Oxford University Press","intvolume":"        79","language":[{"iso":"eng"}],"has_accepted_license":"1","type":"journal_article","issue":"7","file":[{"access_level":"open_access","relation":"main_file","file_size":8150623,"date_updated":"2025-07-22T10:04:57Z","date_created":"2025-07-22T10:04:57Z","file_id":"20068","success":1,"creator":"dernst","file_name":"2025_Evolution_Connallon.pdf","content_type":"application/pdf","checksum":"68c4c996d0e8c9ee3d4fb61bca75b31a"}],"ddc":["570"],"article_type":"original","oa_version":"Published Version","OA_place":"publisher","volume":79,"tmp":{"legal_code_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode","name":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (CC-BY 4.0)","image":"/images/cc_by.png","short":"CC BY (4.0)"},"date_published":"2025-07-01T00:00:00Z","OA_type":"hybrid","publication_identifier":{"eissn":["1558-5646"],"issn":["0014-3820"]},"PlanS_conform":"1","title":"Predicting the prevalence of genetic trade-offs among adaptive substitutions","department":[{"_id":"BeVi"}],"ec_funded":1,"publication":"Evolution","file_date_updated":"2025-07-22T10:04:57Z","date_updated":"2025-07-22T10:06:09Z","user_id":"2DF688A6-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87","oa":1,"citation":{"mla":"Connallon, Tim, et al. “Predicting the Prevalence of Genetic Trade-Offs among Adaptive Substitutions.” <i>Evolution</i>, vol. 79, no. 7, Oxford University Press, 2025, pp. 1243–55, doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1093/evolut/qpaf061\">10.1093/evolut/qpaf061</a>.","chicago":"Connallon, Tim, Peter Czuppon, Colin Olito, Debora Goedert, Hanna Kokko, Angela Nava-Bolaños, Sofie Nilén, et al. “Predicting the Prevalence of Genetic Trade-Offs among Adaptive Substitutions.” <i>Evolution</i>. Oxford University Press, 2025. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1093/evolut/qpaf061\">https://doi.org/10.1093/evolut/qpaf061</a>.","ama":"Connallon T, Czuppon P, Olito C, et al. Predicting the prevalence of genetic trade-offs among adaptive substitutions. <i>Evolution</i>. 2025;79(7):1243-1255. doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1093/evolut/qpaf061\">10.1093/evolut/qpaf061</a>","ista":"Connallon T, Czuppon P, Olito C, Goedert D, Kokko H, Nava-Bolaños A, Nilén S, Svensson EI, Zwoinska M, Dutoit L, Ruzicka F. 2025. Predicting the prevalence of genetic trade-offs among adaptive substitutions. Evolution. 79(7), 1243–1255.","short":"T. Connallon, P. Czuppon, C. Olito, D. Goedert, H. Kokko, A. Nava-Bolaños, S. Nilén, E.I. Svensson, M. Zwoinska, L. Dutoit, F. Ruzicka, Evolution 79 (2025) 1243–1255.","apa":"Connallon, T., Czuppon, P., Olito, C., Goedert, D., Kokko, H., Nava-Bolaños, A., … Ruzicka, F. (2025). Predicting the prevalence of genetic trade-offs among adaptive substitutions. <i>Evolution</i>. Oxford University Press. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1093/evolut/qpaf061\">https://doi.org/10.1093/evolut/qpaf061</a>","ieee":"T. Connallon <i>et al.</i>, “Predicting the prevalence of genetic trade-offs among adaptive substitutions,” <i>Evolution</i>, vol. 79, no. 7. Oxford University Press, pp. 1243–1255, 2025."},"abstract":[{"text":"Genetic trade-offs—which occur when variants that are beneficial in some contexts of natural selection are harmful in others—can influence a wide range of evolutionary phenomena, from the maintenance of genetic variation to the evolution of aging and sex differences. An extensive body of evolutionary theory has focused on the consequences of such trade-offs, and recent analyses of Fisher’s geometric model have further quantified the expected proportion of new mutations that exhibit trade-offs. However, the theory remains silent regarding the prevalence of trade-offs among the variants that contribute to adaptation. Here, we extend Fisher’s geometric model to predict the prevalence of trade-offs among the adaptive mutations that become established or fixed in a population. We consider trade-offs between sexes, habitats, fitness components, and temporally fluctuating environments. In all 4 scenarios, trade-off alleles are consistently under-represented among established relative to new beneficial mutations—an effect that arises from the greater susceptibility of trade-off alleles to genetic drift. Adaptation during a population size decline exacerbates this deficit of trade-offs among established mutations, whereas population expansions dampen it. Consequently, threatened populations should primarily adapt using unconditionally beneficial alleles, while invasive populations are more prone to adaptation using variants that exhibit trade-offs.","lang":"eng"}]}