Mountain glaciers recouple to atmospheric warming over the twenty-first century

article Mountain glaciers recouple to atmospheric warming over the twenty-first century published yes Thomas Shaw author 3caa3f91-1f03-11ee-96ce-e0e553054d6e0000-0001-7640-6152 Evan S. Miles author Michael McCarthy author 22a2674a-61ce-11ee-94b5-d18813baf16f Pascal Buri author Nicolas Guyennon author Franco Salerno author Luca Carturan author Benjamin Brock author Francesca Pellicciotti author b28f055a-81ea-11ed-b70c-a9fe7f7b0e700000-0002-5554-8087 FrPe department IST-BRIDGE: International postdoctoral program project Recent studies have argued that air temperatures over many mountain glaciers are decoupled from their surroundings, leading to a local cooling which could slow down melting. Here we use a compilation of on-glacier meteorological observations to assess the extent to which this relationship changes under warming. Statistical modelling of the potential temperature decoupling of the world’s mountain glaciers indicates that currently glacier boundary layers warm ~0.83 °C on average for every degree of ambient temperature rise. Future projections under shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) climate scenarios SSP 2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5 indicate that decoupling, and thus relative cooling over glaciers, is maximized during the 2020s and 2030s, before widespread glacier retreat acts to recouple above-glacier air temperatures with its surroundings. This nonlinear feedback will lead to an increased sensitivity to warming from midcentury, with glaciers losing their capacity to affect the local climate and cool themselves. https://research-explorer.ista.ac.at/download/20480/20955/2025_NatureClimateChange_Shaw.pdf application/pdfno Springer Nature2025 eng Nature Climate Change 1758-678X 1758-6798 00159176290000110.1038/s41558-025-02449-0 151212-1218 Shaw T, Miles ES, McCarthy M, et al. Mountain glaciers recouple to atmospheric warming over the twenty-first century. Nature Climate Change. 2025;15:1212-1218. doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02449-0">10.1038/s41558-025-02449-0</a> T. Shaw, E.S. Miles, M. McCarthy, P. Buri, N. Guyennon, F. Salerno, L. Carturan, B. Brock, F. Pellicciotti, Nature Climate Change 15 (2025) 1212–1218. Shaw, Thomas, et al. “Mountain Glaciers Recouple to Atmospheric Warming over the Twenty-First Century.” Nature Climate Change, vol. 15, Springer Nature, 2025, pp. 1212–18, doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02449-0">10.1038/s41558-025-02449-0</a>. T. Shaw et al., “Mountain glaciers recouple to atmospheric warming over the twenty-first century,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 15. Springer Nature, pp. 1212–1218, 2025. Shaw T, Miles ES, McCarthy M, Buri P, Guyennon N, Salerno F, Carturan L, Brock B, Pellicciotti F. 2025. Mountain glaciers recouple to atmospheric warming over the twenty-first century. Nature Climate Change. 15, 1212–1218. Shaw, Thomas, Evan S. Miles, Michael McCarthy, Pascal Buri, Nicolas Guyennon, Franco Salerno, Luca Carturan, Benjamin Brock, and Francesca Pellicciotti. “Mountain Glaciers Recouple to Atmospheric Warming over the Twenty-First Century.” Nature Climate Change. Springer Nature, 2025. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02449-0">https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02449-0</a>. Shaw, T., Miles, E. S., McCarthy, M., Buri, P., Guyennon, N., Salerno, F., … Pellicciotti, F. (2025). Mountain glaciers recouple to atmospheric warming over the twenty-first century. Nature Climate Change. Springer Nature. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02449-0">https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02449-0</a> 204802025-10-16T13:12:49Z2026-01-05T13:36:23Z