{"intvolume":"         6","abstract":[{"lang":"eng","text":"Glacier melt sustains water discharge from mountain basins during droughts, but ongoing glacier retreat threatens this fundamental capacity. Here, we assess the response of glaciers in the Southern Andes to one of the most severe, persistent, and extensive droughts on record in South America (2010-present), and to projected end-of-century megadroughts. Using glacio-hydrological numerical simulations, we show that despite a mean annual precipitation deficit of 36%, glacier runoff in 2010-2019 remained almost unaltered compared to the preceding decade (2000-2009), sustained by a 10% loss of total ice volume. However, simulations of future glacier evolution indicate that annual and summer glacier runoff could decline by up to 20 ± 11% and 48 ± 6%, respectively, during end-of-century megadroughts compared to pre-2010 levels. Our results project a weakening of the glacier’s buffering role against precipitation deficits during extreme droughts, increasing water scarcity for ecosystems and livelihoods in the mountain regions of South America."}],"publication_status":"published","publication":"Communications Earth and Environment","type":"journal_article","has_accepted_license":"1","date_published":"2025-12-01T00:00:00Z","user_id":"2DF688A6-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87","file_date_updated":"2025-12-01T09:10:13Z","month":"12","day":"01","DOAJ_listed":"1","title":"Less water from glaciers during future megadroughts in the Southern Andes","quality_controlled":"1","article_number":"860","PlanS_conform":"1","publisher":"Springer Nature","isi":1,"article_type":"original","oa":1,"status":"public","author":[{"last_name":"Ayala","first_name":"Álvaro","full_name":"Ayala, Álvaro"},{"first_name":"Eduardo","last_name":"Muñoz-Castro","full_name":"Muñoz-Castro, Eduardo"},{"first_name":"Daniel","last_name":"Farinotti","full_name":"Farinotti, Daniel"},{"full_name":"Farías-Barahona, David","last_name":"Farías-Barahona","first_name":"David"},{"full_name":"Mendoza, Pablo A.","last_name":"Mendoza","first_name":"Pablo A."},{"last_name":"Macdonell","first_name":"Shelley","full_name":"Macdonell, Shelley"},{"full_name":"Mcphee, James","first_name":"James","last_name":"Mcphee"},{"full_name":"Vargas, Ximena","last_name":"Vargas","first_name":"Ximena"},{"last_name":"Pellicciotti","first_name":"Francesca","id":"b28f055a-81ea-11ed-b70c-a9fe7f7b0e70","full_name":"Pellicciotti, Francesca","orcid":"0000-0002-5554-8087"}],"scopus_import":"1","license":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","department":[{"_id":"FrPe"}],"language":[{"iso":"eng"}],"date_created":"2025-11-30T23:02:06Z","acknowledgement":"This research was funded in whole or in part by the Austrian Science Fund (FWF), DOI: 10.55776/16891. The project MegaWat has received funding from the Austrian Science Fund (FWF), Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF), the Centre for the Development of Industrial Technology (CDTI), Dutch Research Council (NWO), National Research Council (CNR) and the European Union’s Horizon Europe Programme under the 2022 Joint Transnational Call of the European Partnership Water4all (Grant Agreement n°101060874). Á.A. acknowledges Fondecyt Postdoc No. 3190732, the WSL programme ‘Extremes’ through the EMERGE project and together with S.M. ANID-CENTROS REGIONALES R20F0008. E.M.C. thanks ANID National Master scholarship year 2020 N°22200599 and the Swiss National Science Foundation Grant 200021_214907. P.A.M. acknowledges support from the Fondecyt project No. 11200142, and ANID/PIA project No AFB230001.","citation":{"apa":"Ayala, Á., Muñoz-Castro, E., Farinotti, D., Farías-Barahona, D., Mendoza, P. A., Macdonell, S., … Pellicciotti, F. (2025). Less water from glaciers during future megadroughts in the Southern Andes. <i>Communications Earth and Environment</i>. Springer Nature. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02845-6\">https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02845-6</a>","mla":"Ayala, Álvaro, et al. “Less Water from Glaciers during Future Megadroughts in the Southern Andes.” <i>Communications Earth and Environment</i>, vol. 6, 860, Springer Nature, 2025, doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02845-6\">10.1038/s43247-025-02845-6</a>.","ista":"Ayala Á, Muñoz-Castro E, Farinotti D, Farías-Barahona D, Mendoza PA, Macdonell S, Mcphee J, Vargas X, Pellicciotti F. 2025. Less water from glaciers during future megadroughts in the Southern Andes. Communications Earth and Environment. 6, 860.","short":"Á. Ayala, E. Muñoz-Castro, D. Farinotti, D. Farías-Barahona, P.A. Mendoza, S. Macdonell, J. Mcphee, X. Vargas, F. Pellicciotti, Communications Earth and Environment 6 (2025).","ieee":"Á. Ayala <i>et al.</i>, “Less water from glaciers during future megadroughts in the Southern Andes,” <i>Communications Earth and Environment</i>, vol. 6. Springer Nature, 2025.","chicago":"Ayala, Álvaro, Eduardo Muñoz-Castro, Daniel Farinotti, David Farías-Barahona, Pablo A. Mendoza, Shelley Macdonell, James Mcphee, Ximena Vargas, and Francesca Pellicciotti. “Less Water from Glaciers during Future Megadroughts in the Southern Andes.” <i>Communications Earth and Environment</i>. Springer Nature, 2025. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02845-6\">https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02845-6</a>.","ama":"Ayala Á, Muñoz-Castro E, Farinotti D, et al. Less water from glaciers during future megadroughts in the Southern Andes. <i>Communications Earth and Environment</i>. 2025;6. doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02845-6\">10.1038/s43247-025-02845-6</a>"},"article_processing_charge":"Yes","OA_type":"gold","external_id":{"isi":["001617609200003"]},"publication_identifier":{"eissn":["2662-4435"]},"date_updated":"2025-12-01T15:39:50Z","year":"2025","OA_place":"publisher","tmp":{"legal_code_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode","name":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (CC-BY 4.0)","short":"CC BY (4.0)","image":"/images/cc_by.png"},"volume":6,"project":[{"grant_number":"I06891","_id":"8e4c5b0b-16d5-11f0-9cad-9fa5f341393c","name":"Megadroughts in the Water towers of Europe - from process understanding to strategies for"},{"_id":"3AC91DDA-15DF-11EA-824D-93A3E7B544D1","call_identifier":"FWF","name":"FWF Open Access Fund"}],"ddc":["550"],"doi":"10.1038/s43247-025-02845-6","_id":"20703","file":[{"file_name":"2025_CommEarthEnvir_Ayala.pdf","creator":"dernst","content_type":"application/pdf","relation":"main_file","file_id":"20720","success":1,"date_updated":"2025-12-01T09:10:13Z","access_level":"open_access","file_size":2468843,"checksum":"1b23ad585d6f305447b54c606be0c46d","date_created":"2025-12-01T09:10:13Z"}],"oa_version":"Published Version"}