Topographically-controlled contribution of avalanches to glacier mass balance in the 21st century

article Topographically-controlled contribution of avalanches to glacier mass balance in the 21st century published yes Marin Kneib author Fabien Maussion author Fanny Brun author Guillem Carcanade author Daniel Farinotti author Matthias Huss author Marit Van Tiel author Achille Jouberton author f2426a39-920b-11f0-ac40-cbeda2086b9c Patrick Schmitt author Lilian Schuster author Amaury Dehecq author Nicolas Champollion author FrPe department Glaciers are often located in steep mountain settings and avalanches from surrounding slopes can strongly influence snow accumulation patterns on their surface. This effect has however never been quantified for more than a few glaciers and the impact on the future evolution of glaciers is unclear. We coupled an avalanche and a glacier model to estimate the contribution of avalanches to the accumulation of all glaciers in the world and how this affects their evolution throughout the 21st century. Globally, 3% of the snow accumulation on glaciers comes from avalanches and 1% is removed by avalanches. This net contribution varies between regions and glaciers, with a maximum of 15% for New Zealand. Accounting for avalanches modifies the altitudinal pattern of glacier mass balance and the projected evolution of individual glaciers. The main effects include (1) a longer persistence of small glaciers, with for example three times more ice retained by glaciers smaller than 1 km2 in Central Europe under a low-emission scenario, and (2) an increased sensitivity of high-elevation accumulation zones to future warming. We anticipate the relative influence of avalanches to increase in the future and advocate for a better monitoring of this process and representation in glacier models. https://research-explorer.ista.ac.at/download/20728/20740/2025_NatureComm_Kneib.pdf application/pdfno https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Springer Nature2025 eng Nature Communications 2041-1723 4129844910.1038/s41467-025-65608-z 16 M. Kneib et al., “Topographically-controlled contribution of avalanches to glacier mass balance in the 21st century,” Nature Communications, vol. 16. Springer Nature, 2025. Kneib, Marin, et al. “Topographically-Controlled Contribution of Avalanches to Glacier Mass Balance in the 21st Century.” Nature Communications, vol. 16, 10122, Springer Nature, 2025, doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-65608-z">10.1038/s41467-025-65608-z</a>. Kneib M, Maussion F, Brun F, et al. Topographically-controlled contribution of avalanches to glacier mass balance in the 21st century. Nature Communications. 2025;16. doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-65608-z">10.1038/s41467-025-65608-z</a> Kneib, M., Maussion, F., Brun, F., Carcanade, G., Farinotti, D., Huss, M., … Champollion, N. (2025). Topographically-controlled contribution of avalanches to glacier mass balance in the 21st century. Nature Communications. Springer Nature. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-65608-z">https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-65608-z</a> Kneib M, Maussion F, Brun F, Carcanade G, Farinotti D, Huss M, Van Tiel M, Jouberton A, Schmitt P, Schuster L, Dehecq A, Champollion N. 2025. Topographically-controlled contribution of avalanches to glacier mass balance in the 21st century. Nature Communications. 16, 10122. Kneib, Marin, Fabien Maussion, Fanny Brun, Guillem Carcanade, Daniel Farinotti, Matthias Huss, Marit Van Tiel, et al. “Topographically-Controlled Contribution of Avalanches to Glacier Mass Balance in the 21st Century.” Nature Communications. Springer Nature, 2025. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-65608-z">https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-65608-z</a>. M. Kneib, F. Maussion, F. Brun, G. Carcanade, D. Farinotti, M. Huss, M. Van Tiel, A. Jouberton, P. Schmitt, L. Schuster, A. Dehecq, N. Champollion, Nature Communications 16 (2025). 207282025-12-07T23:02:00Z2025-12-09T12:38:44Z