article published yes Maximilien Bolot author Rémy Roca author Thomas Fiolleau author Caroline J Muller author f978ccb0-3f7f-11eb-b193-b0e2bd13182b0000-0001-5836-5350 CaMu department Organization of CLoUdS, and implications of Tropical cyclones and for the Energetics of the tropics, in current and waRming climate project According to the scientific consensus, tropical convection must decrease with global warming. This decrease is manifested by a decrease of the mass transported in the upward branch of the atmospheric overturning circulation – the convective mass flux – and a connected decrease of high clouds in the tropics, with implications for climate sensitivity. By using kilometer-scale simulations in radiative-convective equilibrium and a convective tracking algorithm, we show that no such decrease occurs in storms when taken individually and that the mass transport per storm increases instead. Storms can achieve this result by aggregating more surface of the convective cores – the inner part of the storm doing the vertical transport – so that the decrease of tropical convection is actually explained by a decrease in the total number of storms. There is little variation of the mean pressure velocity in the cores of the storms, a robust finding of this study. This remarkable invariance of the mean pressure velocity points to an emerging property of convection that should receive more attention in future studies. https://research-explorer.ista.ac.at/download/21035/21215/2026_njpClimateAtmScience_Bolot.pdf application/pdfno https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ Springer Nature2026 eng 2397-3722 4155027010.1038/s41612-025-01285-5 9 Bolot M, Roca R, Fiolleau T, Muller CJ. 2026. No decrease of tropical convection in individual deep convective systems with global warming. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. 9, 14. Bolot, M., Roca, R., Fiolleau, T., &#38; Muller, C. J. (2026). No decrease of tropical convection in individual deep convective systems with global warming. <i>Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science</i>. Springer Nature. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01285-5">https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01285-5</a> Bolot, Maximilien, Rémy Roca, Thomas Fiolleau, and Caroline J Muller. “No Decrease of Tropical Convection in Individual Deep Convective Systems with Global Warming.” <i>Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science</i>. Springer Nature, 2026. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01285-5">https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01285-5</a>. Bolot, Maximilien, et al. “No Decrease of Tropical Convection in Individual Deep Convective Systems with Global Warming.” <i>Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science</i>, vol. 9, 14, Springer Nature, 2026, doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01285-5">10.1038/s41612-025-01285-5</a>. M. Bolot, R. Roca, T. Fiolleau, and C. J. Muller, “No decrease of tropical convection in individual deep convective systems with global warming,” <i>npj Climate and Atmospheric Science</i>, vol. 9. Springer Nature, 2026. M. Bolot, R. Roca, T. Fiolleau, C.J. Muller, Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 9 (2026). Bolot M, Roca R, Fiolleau T, Muller CJ. No decrease of tropical convection in individual deep convective systems with global warming. <i>npj Climate and Atmospheric Science</i>. 2026;9. doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01285-5">10.1038/s41612-025-01285-5</a> 210352026-01-25T23:01:38Z2026-02-12T08:41:09Z