---
DOAJ_listed: '1'
OA_place: publisher
OA_type: gold
_id: '21035'
abstract:
- lang: eng
  text: According to the scientific consensus, tropical convection must decrease with
    global warming. This decrease is manifested by a decrease of the mass transported
    in the upward branch of the atmospheric overturning circulation – the convective
    mass flux – and a connected decrease of high clouds in the tropics, with implications
    for climate sensitivity. By using kilometer-scale simulations in radiative-convective
    equilibrium and a convective tracking algorithm, we show that no such decrease
    occurs in storms when taken individually and that the mass transport per storm
    increases instead. Storms can achieve this result by aggregating more surface
    of the convective cores – the inner part of the storm doing the vertical transport
    – so that the decrease of tropical convection is actually explained by a decrease
    in the total number of storms. There is little variation of the mean pressure
    velocity in the cores of the storms, a robust finding of this study. This remarkable
    invariance of the mean pressure velocity points to an emerging property of convection
    that should receive more attention in future studies.
acknowledgement: We thank Sophie Cloché for her support with the handling of the various
  datasets. This study benefited from the IPSL mesocenter ESPRI facility which is
  supported by CNRS, UPMC, Labex L-IPSL, CNES and Ecole Polytechnique. The authors
  acknowledge the CNES and CNRS support under the Megha-Tropiques program. C.M. gratefully
  acknowledges funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European
  Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (Project CLUSTER, Grant Agreement
  No. 805041).
article_number: '14'
article_processing_charge: Yes
article_type: original
author:
- first_name: Maximilien
  full_name: Bolot, Maximilien
  last_name: Bolot
- first_name: Rémy
  full_name: Roca, Rémy
  last_name: Roca
- first_name: Thomas
  full_name: Fiolleau, Thomas
  last_name: Fiolleau
- first_name: Caroline J
  full_name: Muller, Caroline J
  id: f978ccb0-3f7f-11eb-b193-b0e2bd13182b
  last_name: Muller
  orcid: 0000-0001-5836-5350
citation:
  ama: Bolot M, Roca R, Fiolleau T, Muller CJ. No decrease of tropical convection
    in individual deep convective systems with global warming. <i>npj Climate and
    Atmospheric Science</i>. 2026;9. doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01285-5">10.1038/s41612-025-01285-5</a>
  apa: Bolot, M., Roca, R., Fiolleau, T., &#38; Muller, C. J. (2026). No decrease
    of tropical convection in individual deep convective systems with global warming.
    <i>Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science</i>. Springer Nature. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01285-5">https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01285-5</a>
  chicago: Bolot, Maximilien, Rémy Roca, Thomas Fiolleau, and Caroline J Muller. “No
    Decrease of Tropical Convection in Individual Deep Convective Systems with Global
    Warming.” <i>Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science</i>. Springer Nature, 2026. <a
    href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01285-5">https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01285-5</a>.
  ieee: M. Bolot, R. Roca, T. Fiolleau, and C. J. Muller, “No decrease of tropical
    convection in individual deep convective systems with global warming,” <i>npj
    Climate and Atmospheric Science</i>, vol. 9. Springer Nature, 2026.
  ista: Bolot M, Roca R, Fiolleau T, Muller CJ. 2026. No decrease of tropical convection
    in individual deep convective systems with global warming. npj Climate and Atmospheric
    Science. 9, 14.
  mla: Bolot, Maximilien, et al. “No Decrease of Tropical Convection in Individual
    Deep Convective Systems with Global Warming.” <i>Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science</i>,
    vol. 9, 14, Springer Nature, 2026, doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01285-5">10.1038/s41612-025-01285-5</a>.
  short: M. Bolot, R. Roca, T. Fiolleau, C.J. Muller, Npj Climate and Atmospheric
    Science 9 (2026).
date_created: 2026-01-25T23:01:38Z
date_published: 2026-01-15T00:00:00Z
date_updated: 2026-02-12T08:41:09Z
day: '15'
ddc:
- '550'
department:
- _id: CaMu
doi: 10.1038/s41612-025-01285-5
ec_funded: 1
external_id:
  pmid:
  - '41550270'
file:
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  creator: dernst
  date_created: 2026-02-12T08:39:27Z
  date_updated: 2026-02-12T08:39:27Z
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file_date_updated: 2026-02-12T08:39:27Z
has_accepted_license: '1'
intvolume: '         9'
language:
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month: '01'
oa: 1
oa_version: Published Version
pmid: 1
project:
- _id: 629205d8-2b32-11ec-9570-e1356ff73576
  call_identifier: H2020
  grant_number: '805041'
  name: Organization of CLoUdS, and implications of Tropical  cyclones and for the
    Energetics of the tropics, in current and waRming climate
publication: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
publication_identifier:
  eissn:
  - 2397-3722
publication_status: published
publisher: Springer Nature
quality_controlled: '1'
scopus_import: '1'
status: public
title: No decrease of tropical convection in individual deep convective systems with
  global warming
tmp:
  image: /images/cc_by_nc_nd.png
  legal_code_url: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/legalcode
  name: Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
    (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)
  short: CC BY-NC-ND (4.0)
type: journal_article
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volume: 9
year: '2026'
...