{"publication_status":"epub_ahead","type":"journal_article","author":[{"last_name":"Ibarra-Espinosa","first_name":"Sergio","full_name":"Ibarra-Espinosa, Sergio"},{"last_name":"Dias de Freitas","full_name":"Dias de Freitas, Edmilson","first_name":"Edmilson"},{"last_name":"Gaubert","full_name":"Gaubert, Benjamin","first_name":"Benjamin"},{"last_name":"Lichtig","full_name":"Lichtig, Pablo","first_name":"Pablo"},{"last_name":"Ropkins","first_name":"Karl","full_name":"Ropkins, Karl"},{"last_name":"da Silva","full_name":"da Silva, Iara","first_name":"Iara"},{"last_name":"Martins Pereira","full_name":"Martins Pereira, Guilherme","first_name":"Guilherme"},{"full_name":"Schuch, Daniel","first_name":"Daniel","last_name":"Schuch"},{"full_name":"Nascimento, Janaina","first_name":"Janaina","last_name":"Nascimento"},{"last_name":"Hoinaski","full_name":"Hoinaski, Leonardo","first_name":"Leonardo"},{"first_name":"Leila Droprinchinski","full_name":"Martins, Leila Droprinchinski","last_name":"Martins"},{"last_name":"Gavidia-Calderón","full_name":"Gavidia-Calderón, Mario","first_name":"Mario"},{"full_name":"Vara-Vela, Angel","first_name":"Angel","last_name":"Vara-Vela"},{"first_name":"Taciana","full_name":"Toledo de Almeida Albuquerque, Taciana","last_name":"Toledo de Almeida Albuquerque"},{"last_name":"Ynoue","full_name":"Ynoue, Rita Yuri","first_name":"Rita Yuri"},{"last_name":"Diez","first_name":"Sebastian","full_name":"Diez, Sebastian"},{"full_name":"Mera, Zamir","first_name":"Zamir","last_name":"Mera"},{"id":"92081129-2d75-11ef-a48d-b04dd7a2385a","last_name":"Casallas Garcia","first_name":"Alejandro","orcid":"0000-0002-1988-5035","full_name":"Casallas Garcia, Alejandro"},{"first_name":"Fidel","full_name":"Vallejo, Fidel","last_name":"Vallejo"},{"full_name":"Diaz, Valeria","first_name":"Valeria","last_name":"Diaz"},{"last_name":"Pedruzzi","first_name":"Rizzieri","full_name":"Pedruzzi, Rizzieri"},{"first_name":"Rosana","full_name":"Abrutzky, Rosana","last_name":"Abrutzky"},{"last_name":"Franco","full_name":"Franco, Marco A.","first_name":"Marco A."},{"full_name":"Huneeus, Nicolas","first_name":"Nicolas","last_name":"Huneeus"},{"first_name":"Hector","full_name":"Jorquera, Hector","last_name":"Jorquera"},{"first_name":"Luis Carlos","full_name":"Belalcázar-Cerón, Luis Carlos","last_name":"Belalcázar-Cerón"},{"first_name":"Néstor Y.","full_name":"Rojas, Néstor Y.","last_name":"Rojas"},{"full_name":"de Fatima Andrade, Maria","first_name":"Maria","last_name":"de Fatima Andrade"},{"last_name":"Emmons","first_name":"Louisa","full_name":"Emmons, Louisa"},{"first_name":"Guy","full_name":"Brasseur, Guy","last_name":"Brasseur"}],"language":[{"iso":"eng"}],"doi":"10.1021/acs.est.5c08400","publisher":"American Chemical Society","user_id":"2DF688A6-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87","year":"2026","day":"04","date_published":"2026-02-04T00:00:00Z","oa_version":"None","publication_identifier":{"issn":["0013-936X"],"eissn":["1520-5851"]},"pmid":1,"title":"A century of vehicular emissions in Brazil: Unveiling the impacts of unique fuel mix on air quality","article_processing_charge":"No","department":[{"_id":"CaMu"}],"_id":"21164","publication":"Environmental Science &amp; Technology","ddc":["550"],"date_created":"2026-02-09T06:54:10Z","status":"public","quality_controlled":"1","project":[{"name":"IST-BRIDGE: International postdoctoral program","call_identifier":"H2020","grant_number":"101034413","_id":"fc2ed2f7-9c52-11eb-aca3-c01059dda49c"}],"abstract":[{"lang":"eng","text":"Global emission inventories often fail to capture the complexities of vehicular pollution in regions with unique fuel mixes, such as Brazil’s extensive biofuel use, leading to significant uncertainties in atmospheric modeling. This study presents a century-long (1960–2100) bottom-up vehicular emission inventory for Brazil, leveraging locally derived emission factors. Our estimates reveal substantial discrepancies in magnitude, timing, and speciation of non-CO2 pollutants (CO, NMHC, PM2.5) compared to leading global inventories (EDGAR, CEDS, CAMS), highlighting critical inaccuracies in widely used data sets. More critically, future projections under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) uncover a novel positive feedback mechanism: rising temperatures significantly enhance vehicular evaporative nonmethane hydrocarbon (NMHC) emissions. This temperature-dependent increase and subsequent NMHC oxidation to CO2 suggest an overlooked pathway that could amplify climate warming and air pollution globally, particularly after a breakpoint around 2050 (p < 0.05). While historical emissions peaked in the 1990s–2000s, nonexhaust PM becomes increasingly important. Air quality simulations using our inventory in the MUSICA model show good regional PM2.5 agreement but highlight challenges in resolving local primary pollutant peaks. This comprehensive inventory provides crucial data for Brazil and uncovers globally relevant climate–chemistry interactions, urging a re-evaluation of regional specificities in global emission assessments."}],"has_accepted_license":"1","month":"02","article_type":"original","external_id":{"pmid":["41636708"]},"acknowledgement":"Part of this material is based upon work supported by the NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is a major facility sponsored by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. 1852977. Casallas was supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No. 101034413. E. D. Freitas thanks the support provided by the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq, Process number 313210/2022–5). Silva gratefully acknowledges the financial support from the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq), process number 140512/2021–7. P. Lichtig was supported by base funding from the National Commission for Atomic Energy (CNEA, Arg.) and by NSF NCAR. R.Y. Ynoue thanks the support provided by the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq, Process number 406728/2022–4). M. A. Franco thanks the support provided by the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq, Process number 407752/2023–4). G. M. Pereira thanks the support by the Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP; Process numbers 2018/07848–9, 2016/18438–0, and 2019/01316–80) and Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES; Process number 88887.103225/2025–00). M.F. Andrade thanks the support by FAPESP (Process number 2016/18438–0) and CNPQ (Klimapolis INCT).","scopus_import":"1","ec_funded":1,"article_number":"5c08400","date_updated":"2026-02-16T10:33:07Z","citation":{"mla":"Ibarra-Espinosa, Sergio, et al. “A Century of Vehicular Emissions in Brazil: Unveiling the Impacts of Unique Fuel Mix on Air Quality.” <i>Environmental Science &#38;amp; Technology</i>, 5c08400, American Chemical Society, 2026, doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5c08400\">10.1021/acs.est.5c08400</a>.","ieee":"S. Ibarra-Espinosa <i>et al.</i>, “A century of vehicular emissions in Brazil: Unveiling the impacts of unique fuel mix on air quality,” <i>Environmental Science &#38;amp; Technology</i>. American Chemical Society, 2026.","ama":"Ibarra-Espinosa S, Dias de Freitas E, Gaubert B, et al. A century of vehicular emissions in Brazil: Unveiling the impacts of unique fuel mix on air quality. <i>Environmental Science &#38;amp; Technology</i>. 2026. doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5c08400\">10.1021/acs.est.5c08400</a>","apa":"Ibarra-Espinosa, S., Dias de Freitas, E., Gaubert, B., Lichtig, P., Ropkins, K., da Silva, I., … Brasseur, G. (2026). A century of vehicular emissions in Brazil: Unveiling the impacts of unique fuel mix on air quality. <i>Environmental Science &#38;amp; Technology</i>. American Chemical Society. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5c08400\">https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5c08400</a>","short":"S. Ibarra-Espinosa, E. Dias de Freitas, B. Gaubert, P. Lichtig, K. Ropkins, I. da Silva, G. Martins Pereira, D. Schuch, J. Nascimento, L. Hoinaski, L.D. Martins, M. Gavidia-Calderón, A. Vara-Vela, T. Toledo de Almeida Albuquerque, R.Y. Ynoue, S. Diez, Z. Mera, A. Casallas Garcia, F. Vallejo, V. Diaz, R. Pedruzzi, R. Abrutzky, M.A. Franco, N. Huneeus, H. Jorquera, L.C. Belalcázar-Cerón, N.Y. Rojas, M. de Fatima Andrade, L. Emmons, G. Brasseur, Environmental Science &#38;amp; Technology (2026).","ista":"Ibarra-Espinosa S, Dias de Freitas E, Gaubert B, Lichtig P, Ropkins K, da Silva I, Martins Pereira G, Schuch D, Nascimento J, Hoinaski L, Martins LD, Gavidia-Calderón M, Vara-Vela A, Toledo de Almeida Albuquerque T, Ynoue RY, Diez S, Mera Z, Casallas Garcia A, Vallejo F, Diaz V, Pedruzzi R, Abrutzky R, Franco MA, Huneeus N, Jorquera H, Belalcázar-Cerón LC, Rojas NY, de Fatima Andrade M, Emmons L, Brasseur G. 2026. A century of vehicular emissions in Brazil: Unveiling the impacts of unique fuel mix on air quality. Environmental Science &#38;amp; Technology., 5c08400.","chicago":"Ibarra-Espinosa, Sergio, Edmilson Dias de Freitas, Benjamin Gaubert, Pablo Lichtig, Karl Ropkins, Iara da Silva, Guilherme Martins Pereira, et al. “A Century of Vehicular Emissions in Brazil: Unveiling the Impacts of Unique Fuel Mix on Air Quality.” <i>Environmental Science &#38;amp; Technology</i>. American Chemical Society, 2026. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5c08400\">https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5c08400</a>."}}