{"license":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","OA_place":"publisher","date_created":"2026-07-12T22:02:16Z","acknowledgement":"J.A. gratefully acknowledges the JSPS postdoctoral fellowship (Japan Society for Promotion of Science, grant number P25709). C.J.M. gratefully acknowledges funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (Project CLUSTER, Grant Agreement No. 805041). The authors also thank Samuel Somot (Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Toulouse) and Juliette Blanchet (Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement, Grenoble) for their fruitful discussions on the project.","das_tickbox":"1","fulldoi":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03519-7","file":[{"file_name":"2026_CommEarthEnvironment_Andre.pdf","relation":"main_file","date_created":"2026-07-13T07:12:35Z","access_level":"open_access","file_id":"22272","creator":"dernst","content_type":"application/pdf","success":1,"file_size":3870924,"checksum":"fd8f57cbe180f7a4d49ab17b3571ad2b","date_updated":"2026-07-13T07:12:35Z"}],"abstract":[{"text":"Climate change is significantly altering regional precipitation patterns across Europe and the Mediterranean. We analyze daily precipitation distribution changes in a 15-member Euro-CORDEX ensemble, through a diagnostic framework that separates occurrence changes, wet-days intensity shifts and distortions. At +4 ∘C global warming, Northern Europe shows a robust intensification of precipitation, driven by both higher occurrence and stronger events. Conversely, the Mediterranean exhibits a dominant drying signal, primarily due to fewer wet-days, which impacts daily precipitation distribution even for heavy rainfall. Transitional zones in the northern Mediterranean reveal “U-shape” regimes, with rising extremes but declining moderate rain. Comparing with ERA5 reanalysis over the past, low model agreement in the south highlights higher uncertainty in the Mediterranean region. The timing of robust signal emergence varies: Northern Europe shows robust patterns from +1 ∘C, while the Mediterranean exhibits delays until +3-4 ∘C. These findings are essential for informing risk-based adaptation strategies.","lang":"eng"}],"publication_identifier":{"eissn":["2662-4435"]},"article_number":"572","article_type":"original","ddc":["550"],"researchdata_availability":"yes","OA_type":"gold","author":[{"last_name":"André","full_name":"André, Julie","first_name":"Julie"},{"full_name":"Chiabrando, Nicolas","last_name":"Chiabrando","first_name":"Nicolas"},{"orcid":"0000-0001-5836-5350","first_name":"Caroline J","full_name":"Muller, Caroline J","id":"f978ccb0-3f7f-11eb-b193-b0e2bd13182b","last_name":"Muller"},{"last_name":"Drobinski","full_name":"Drobinski, Philippe","first_name":"Philippe"},{"first_name":"Fabio","full_name":"D’Andrea, Fabio","last_name":"D’Andrea"}],"supplementarymaterial":"yes","file_date_updated":"2026-07-13T07:12:35Z","dataavailabilitystatement":"ERA5 reanalysis and Euro-CORDEX simulations are publicly available from https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.143582cf and https://cordex.org/data-access/esgf/. The custom code developed and used for this paper can be accessed through Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18995401.","oa":1,"title":"Distinct regimes of precipitation changes across Europe and the Mediterranean under global warming","status":"public","volume":7,"month":"07","project":[{"name":"Organization of CLoUdS, and implications of Tropical  cyclones and for the Energetics of the tropics, in current and waRming climate","grant_number":"805041","call_identifier":"H2020","_id":"629205d8-2b32-11ec-9570-e1356ff73576"}],"_id":"22261","date_published":"2026-07-06T00:00:00Z","scopus_import":"1","date_updated":"2026-07-13T07:13:21Z","DOAJ_listed":"1","quality_controlled":"1","intvolume":"         7","day":"06","oa_version":"Published Version","citation":{"mla":"André, Julie, et al. “Distinct Regimes of Precipitation Changes across Europe and the Mediterranean under Global Warming.” <i>Communications Earth and Environment</i>, vol. 7, 572, Springer Nature, 2026, doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03519-7\">10.1038/s43247-026-03519-7</a>.","chicago":"André, Julie, Nicolas Chiabrando, Caroline J Muller, Philippe Drobinski, and Fabio D’Andrea. “Distinct Regimes of Precipitation Changes across Europe and the Mediterranean under Global Warming.” <i>Communications Earth and Environment</i>. Springer Nature, 2026. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03519-7\">https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03519-7</a>.","apa":"André, J., Chiabrando, N., Muller, C. J., Drobinski, P., &#38; D’Andrea, F. (2026). Distinct regimes of precipitation changes across Europe and the Mediterranean under global warming. <i>Communications Earth and Environment</i>. Springer Nature. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03519-7\">https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03519-7</a>","short":"J. André, N. Chiabrando, C.J. Muller, P. Drobinski, F. D’Andrea, Communications Earth and Environment 7 (2026).","ama":"André J, Chiabrando N, Muller CJ, Drobinski P, D’Andrea F. Distinct regimes of precipitation changes across Europe and the Mediterranean under global warming. <i>Communications Earth and Environment</i>. 2026;7. doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03519-7\">10.1038/s43247-026-03519-7</a>","ieee":"J. André, N. Chiabrando, C. J. Muller, P. Drobinski, and F. D’Andrea, “Distinct regimes of precipitation changes across Europe and the Mediterranean under global warming,” <i>Communications Earth and Environment</i>, vol. 7. Springer Nature, 2026.","ista":"André J, Chiabrando N, Muller CJ, Drobinski P, D’Andrea F. 2026. Distinct regimes of precipitation changes across Europe and the Mediterranean under global warming. Communications Earth and Environment. 7, 572."},"article_processing_charge":"Yes","tmp":{"short":"CC BY (4.0)","legal_code_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode","name":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (CC-BY 4.0)","image":"/images/cc_by.png"},"publication":"Communications Earth and Environment","has_accepted_license":"1","year":"2026","department":[{"_id":"CaMu"}],"type":"journal_article","doi":"10.1038/s43247-026-03519-7","ec_funded":1,"publisher":"Springer Nature","language":[{"iso":"eng"}],"user_id":"2DF688A6-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87","publication_status":"published"}