---
DOAJ_listed: '1'
OA_place: publisher
OA_type: gold
_id: '22261'
abstract:
- lang: eng
text: 'Climate change is significantly altering regional precipitation patterns
across Europe and the Mediterranean. We analyze daily precipitation distribution
changes in a 15-member Euro-CORDEX ensemble, through a diagnostic framework that
separates occurrence changes, wet-days intensity shifts and distortions. At +4
∘C global warming, Northern Europe shows a robust intensification of precipitation,
driven by both higher occurrence and stronger events. Conversely, the Mediterranean
exhibits a dominant drying signal, primarily due to fewer wet-days, which impacts
daily precipitation distribution even for heavy rainfall. Transitional zones in
the northern Mediterranean reveal “U-shape” regimes, with rising extremes but
declining moderate rain. Comparing with ERA5 reanalysis over the past, low model
agreement in the south highlights higher uncertainty in the Mediterranean region.
The timing of robust signal emergence varies: Northern Europe shows robust patterns
from +1 ∘C, while the Mediterranean exhibits delays until +3-4 ∘C. These findings
are essential for informing risk-based adaptation strategies.'
acknowledgement: J.A. gratefully acknowledges the JSPS postdoctoral fellowship (Japan
Society for Promotion of Science, grant number P25709). C.J.M. gratefully acknowledges
funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon
2020 research and innovation program (Project CLUSTER, Grant Agreement No. 805041).
The authors also thank Samuel Somot (Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques,
Toulouse) and Juliette Blanchet (Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement, Grenoble)
for their fruitful discussions on the project.
article_number: '572'
article_processing_charge: Yes
article_type: original
author:
- first_name: Julie
full_name: André, Julie
last_name: André
- first_name: Nicolas
full_name: Chiabrando, Nicolas
last_name: Chiabrando
- first_name: Caroline J
full_name: Muller, Caroline J
id: f978ccb0-3f7f-11eb-b193-b0e2bd13182b
last_name: Muller
orcid: 0000-0001-5836-5350
- first_name: Philippe
full_name: Drobinski, Philippe
last_name: Drobinski
- first_name: Fabio
full_name: D’Andrea, Fabio
last_name: D’Andrea
citation:
ama: André J, Chiabrando N, Muller CJ, Drobinski P, D’Andrea F. Distinct regimes
of precipitation changes across Europe and the Mediterranean under global warming.
Communications Earth and Environment. 2026;7. doi:10.1038/s43247-026-03519-7
apa: André, J., Chiabrando, N., Muller, C. J., Drobinski, P., & D’Andrea, F.
(2026). Distinct regimes of precipitation changes across Europe and the Mediterranean
under global warming. Communications Earth and Environment. Springer Nature.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03519-7
chicago: André, Julie, Nicolas Chiabrando, Caroline J Muller, Philippe Drobinski,
and Fabio D’Andrea. “Distinct Regimes of Precipitation Changes across Europe and
the Mediterranean under Global Warming.” Communications Earth and Environment.
Springer Nature, 2026. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03519-7.
ieee: J. André, N. Chiabrando, C. J. Muller, P. Drobinski, and F. D’Andrea, “Distinct
regimes of precipitation changes across Europe and the Mediterranean under global
warming,” Communications Earth and Environment, vol. 7. Springer Nature,
2026.
ista: André J, Chiabrando N, Muller CJ, Drobinski P, D’Andrea F. 2026. Distinct
regimes of precipitation changes across Europe and the Mediterranean under global
warming. Communications Earth and Environment. 7, 572.
mla: André, Julie, et al. “Distinct Regimes of Precipitation Changes across Europe
and the Mediterranean under Global Warming.” Communications Earth and Environment,
vol. 7, 572, Springer Nature, 2026, doi:10.1038/s43247-026-03519-7.
short: J. André, N. Chiabrando, C.J. Muller, P. Drobinski, F. D’Andrea, Communications
Earth and Environment 7 (2026).
das_tickbox: '1'
dataavailabilitystatement: ERA5 reanalysis and Euro-CORDEX simulations are publicly
available from https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.143582cf and https://cordex.org/data-access/esgf/.
The custom code developed and used for this paper can be accessed through Zenodo,
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18995401.
date_created: 2026-07-12T22:02:16Z
date_published: 2026-07-06T00:00:00Z
date_updated: 2026-07-13T07:13:21Z
day: '06'
ddc:
- '550'
department:
- _id: CaMu
doi: 10.1038/s43247-026-03519-7
ec_funded: 1
file:
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checksum: fd8f57cbe180f7a4d49ab17b3571ad2b
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creator: dernst
date_created: 2026-07-13T07:12:35Z
date_updated: 2026-07-13T07:12:35Z
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file_name: 2026_CommEarthEnvironment_Andre.pdf
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fulldoi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03519-7
has_accepted_license: '1'
intvolume: ' 7'
language:
- iso: eng
month: '07'
oa: 1
oa_version: Published Version
project:
- _id: 629205d8-2b32-11ec-9570-e1356ff73576
call_identifier: H2020
grant_number: '805041'
name: Organization of CLoUdS, and implications of Tropical cyclones and for the
Energetics of the tropics, in current and waRming climate
publication: Communications Earth and Environment
publication_identifier:
eissn:
- 2662-4435
publication_status: published
publisher: Springer Nature
quality_controlled: '1'
researchdata_availability: yes
scopus_import: '1'
status: public
supplementarymaterial: yes
title: Distinct regimes of precipitation changes across Europe and the Mediterranean
under global warming
tmp:
image: /images/cc_by.png
legal_code_url: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode
name: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (CC-BY 4.0)
short: CC BY (4.0)
type: journal_article
user_id: 2DF688A6-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87
volume: 7
year: '2026'
...