---
DOAJ_listed: '1'
OA_place: publisher
OA_type: gold
_id: '22436'
abstract:
- lang: eng
  text: Decision makers and consultants are particularly interested in “detailed”
    information on future climate to prepare adaptation strategies and adjust design
    criteria. Projections of future climate at local spatial scales and fine temporal
    resolutions are subject to the same uncertainties as those at the global scale
    but the partition among uncertainty sources (emission scenarios, climate models,
    and internal climate variability) remains largely unquantified. At the local scale,
    the uncertainty of the mean and extremes of precipitation is shown to be irreducible
    for mid and end-of-century projections because it is almost entirely caused by
    internal climate variability (stochasticity). Conversely, projected changes in
    mean air temperature and other meteorological variables can be largely constrained,
    even at local scales, if more accurate emission scenarios can be developed. The
    results were obtained by applying a comprehensive stochastic downscaling technique
    to climate model outputs for three exemplary locations. In contrast with earlier
    studies, the three sources of uncertainty are considered as dependent and, therefore,
    non-additive. The evidence of the predominant role of internal climate variability
    leaves little room for uncertainty reduction in precipitation projections; however,
    the inference is not necessarily negative, because the uncertainty of historic
    observations is almost as large as that for future projections with direct implications
    for climate change adaptation measures.
article_processing_charge: No
article_type: original
author:
- first_name: Simone
  full_name: Fatichi, Simone
  id: cf8e546b-a9b0-11f0-a43b-aa89ed1b56d6
  last_name: Fatichi
- first_name: Valeriy Y.
  full_name: Ivanov, Valeriy Y.
  last_name: Ivanov
- first_name: Athanasios
  full_name: Paschalis, Athanasios
  last_name: Paschalis
- first_name: Nadav
  full_name: Peleg, Nadav
  last_name: Peleg
- first_name: Peter
  full_name: Molnar, Peter
  last_name: Molnar
- first_name: Stefan
  full_name: Rimkus, Stefan
  last_name: Rimkus
- first_name: Jongho
  full_name: Kim, Jongho
  last_name: Kim
- first_name: Paolo
  full_name: Burlando, Paolo
  last_name: Burlando
- first_name: Enrica
  full_name: Caporali, Enrica
  last_name: Caporali
citation:
  ama: Fatichi S, Ivanov VY, Paschalis A, et al. Uncertainty partition challenges
    the predictability of vital details of climate change. <i>Earth’s Future</i>.
    2016;4(5):240-251. doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/2015ef000336">10.1002/2015ef000336</a>
  apa: Fatichi, S., Ivanov, V. Y., Paschalis, A., Peleg, N., Molnar, P., Rimkus, S.,
    … Caporali, E. (2016). Uncertainty partition challenges the predictability of
    vital details of climate change. <i>Earth’s Future</i>. American Geophysical Union.
    <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/2015ef000336">https://doi.org/10.1002/2015ef000336</a>
  chicago: Fatichi, Simone, Valeriy Y. Ivanov, Athanasios Paschalis, Nadav Peleg,
    Peter Molnar, Stefan Rimkus, Jongho Kim, Paolo Burlando, and Enrica Caporali.
    “Uncertainty Partition Challenges the Predictability of Vital Details of Climate
    Change.” <i>Earth’s Future</i>. American Geophysical Union, 2016. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/2015ef000336">https://doi.org/10.1002/2015ef000336</a>.
  ieee: S. Fatichi <i>et al.</i>, “Uncertainty partition challenges the predictability
    of vital details of climate change,” <i>Earth’s Future</i>, vol. 4, no. 5. American
    Geophysical Union, pp. 240–251, 2016.
  ista: Fatichi S, Ivanov VY, Paschalis A, Peleg N, Molnar P, Rimkus S, Kim J, Burlando
    P, Caporali E. 2016. Uncertainty partition challenges the predictability of vital
    details of climate change. Earth’s Future. 4(5), 240–251.
  mla: Fatichi, Simone, et al. “Uncertainty Partition Challenges the Predictability
    of Vital Details of Climate Change.” <i>Earth’s Future</i>, vol. 4, no. 5, American
    Geophysical Union, 2016, pp. 240–51, doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/2015ef000336">10.1002/2015ef000336</a>.
  short: S. Fatichi, V.Y. Ivanov, A. Paschalis, N. Peleg, P. Molnar, S. Rimkus, J.
    Kim, P. Burlando, E. Caporali, Earth’s Future 4 (2016) 240–251.
das_tickbox: '1'
date_created: 2026-07-27T12:30:23Z
date_published: 2016-03-01T00:00:00Z
date_updated: 2026-08-11T06:54:30Z
day: '01'
doi: 10.1002/2015ef000336
extern: '1'
fulldoi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2015ef000336
intvolume: '         4'
issue: '5'
language:
- iso: eng
license: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
main_file_link:
- open_access: '1'
  url: https://doi.org/10.1002/2015EF000336
month: '03'
oa: 1
oa_version: Published Version
page: 240-251
publication: Earth's Future
publication_identifier:
  eissn:
  - 2328-4277
publication_status: published
publisher: American Geophysical Union
quality_controlled: '1'
scopus_import: '1'
status: public
title: Uncertainty partition challenges the predictability of vital details of climate
  change
tmp:
  image: /images/cc_by_nc_nd.png
  legal_code_url: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/legalcode
  name: Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
    (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)
  short: CC BY-NC-ND (4.0)
type: journal_article
user_id: ba8df636-2132-11f1-aed0-ed93e2281fdd
volume: 4
year: '2016'
...