---
OA_type: closed access
_id: '22459'
abstract:
- lang: eng
  text: Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required
    to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain
    due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability,
    and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal
    scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling
    methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project
    to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po
    and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland.
    Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental
    source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate
    change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency,
    and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts
    of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability
    is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is
    expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences
    appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations
    also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a
    strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow
    beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This
    study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate
    change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would
    be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could
    be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management
    decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as
    suggested by recent literature.
article_processing_charge: No
article_type: original
author:
- first_name: Simone
  full_name: Fatichi, Simone
  id: cf8e546b-a9b0-11f0-a43b-aa89ed1b56d6
  last_name: Fatichi
- first_name: S.
  full_name: Rimkus, S.
  last_name: Rimkus
- first_name: P.
  full_name: Burlando, P.
  last_name: Burlando
- first_name: R.
  full_name: Bordoy, R.
  last_name: Bordoy
citation:
  ama: Fatichi S, Rimkus S, Burlando P, Bordoy R. Does internal climate variability
    overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper Po and Rhone basin case
    studies. <i>Science of The Total Environment</i>. 2014;493:1171-1182. doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.12.014">10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.12.014</a>
  apa: Fatichi, S., Rimkus, S., Burlando, P., &#38; Bordoy, R. (2014). Does internal
    climate variability overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper
    Po and Rhone basin case studies. <i>Science of The Total Environment</i>. Elsevier.
    <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.12.014">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.12.014</a>
  chicago: Fatichi, Simone, S. Rimkus, P. Burlando, and R. Bordoy. “Does Internal
    Climate Variability Overwhelm Climate Change Signals in Streamflow? The Upper
    Po and Rhone Basin Case Studies.” <i>Science of The Total Environment</i>. Elsevier,
    2014. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.12.014">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.12.014</a>.
  ieee: S. Fatichi, S. Rimkus, P. Burlando, and R. Bordoy, “Does internal climate
    variability overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper Po and Rhone
    basin case studies,” <i>Science of The Total Environment</i>, vol. 493. Elsevier,
    pp. 1171–1182, 2014.
  ista: Fatichi S, Rimkus S, Burlando P, Bordoy R. 2014. Does internal climate variability
    overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper Po and Rhone basin case
    studies. Science of The Total Environment. 493, 1171–1182.
  mla: Fatichi, Simone, et al. “Does Internal Climate Variability Overwhelm Climate
    Change Signals in Streamflow? The Upper Po and Rhone Basin Case Studies.” <i>Science
    of The Total Environment</i>, vol. 493, Elsevier, 2014, pp. 1171–82, doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.12.014">10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.12.014</a>.
  short: S. Fatichi, S. Rimkus, P. Burlando, R. Bordoy, Science of The Total Environment
    493 (2014) 1171–1182.
das_tickbox: '1'
date_created: 2026-07-27T12:30:23Z
date_published: 2014-09-15T00:00:00Z
date_updated: 2026-08-12T14:17:26Z
day: '15'
doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.12.014
extern: '1'
external_id:
  pmid:
  - '24418218'
fulldoi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.12.014
intvolume: '       493'
keyword:
- Climate change
- Hydrological modeling
- Stochastic downscaling
- Uncertainty
- Water resources
- Alps
language:
- iso: eng
month: '09'
oa_version: None
page: 1171-1182
pmid: 1
publication: Science of The Total Environment
publication_identifier:
  eissn:
  - 1879-1026
  issn:
  - 0048-9697
publication_status: published
publisher: Elsevier
quality_controlled: '1'
scopus_import: '1'
status: public
title: Does internal climate variability overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow?
  The upper Po and Rhone basin case studies
type: journal_article
user_id: ba8df636-2132-11f1-aed0-ed93e2281fdd
volume: 493
year: '2014'
...