---
OA_type: closed access
_id: '22509'
abstract:
- lang: eng
  text: Hydrologic and geomorphic responses of watersheds to changes in climate are
    difficult to assess due to projection uncertainties and nonlinearity of the processes
    that are involved. Yet such assessments are increasingly needed and call for mechanistic
    approaches within a probabilistic framework. This study employs an integrated
    hydrology‐geomorphology model, the Triangulated Irregular Network‐based Real‐time
    Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS)‐Erosion, to analyze runoff and erosion sensitivity
    of seven semiarid headwater basins to projected climate conditions. The Advanced
    Weather Generator is used to produce two climate ensembles representative of the
    historic and future climate conditions for the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed
    located in the southwest U.S. The former ensemble incorporates the stochastic
    variability of the observed climate, while the latter includes the stochastic
    variability and the uncertainty of multimodel climate change projections. The
    ensembles are used as forcing for tRIBS‐Erosion that simulates runoff and sediment
    basin responses leading to probabilistic inferences of future changes. The results
    show that annual precipitation for the area is generally expected to decrease
    in the future, with lower hourly intensities and similar daily rates. The smaller
    hourly rainfall generally results in lower mean annual runoff. However, a non‐negligible
    probability of runoff increase in the future is identified, resulting from stochastic
    combinations of years with low and high runoff. On average, the magnitudes of
    mean and extreme events of sediment yield are expected to decrease with a very
    high probability. Importantly, the projected variability of annual sediment transport
    for the future conditions is comparable to that for the historic conditions, despite
    the fact that the former account for a much wider range of possible climate “alternatives.”
    This result demonstrates that the historic natural climate variability of sediment
    yield is already so high, that it is comparable to the variability for a projected
    and highly uncertain future. Additionally, changes in the scaling relationship
    between specific sediment yield/runoff and drainage basin area are detected.
article_processing_charge: No
article_type: original
author:
- first_name: A.
  full_name: Francipane, A.
  last_name: Francipane
- first_name: Simone
  full_name: Fatichi, Simone
  id: cf8e546b-a9b0-11f0-a43b-aa89ed1b56d6
  last_name: Fatichi
- first_name: V. Y.
  full_name: Ivanov, V. Y.
  last_name: Ivanov
- first_name: L. V.
  full_name: Noto, L. V.
  last_name: Noto
citation:
  ama: 'Francipane A, Fatichi S, Ivanov VY, Noto LV. Stochastic assessment of climate
    impacts on hydrology and geomorphology of semiarid headwater basins using a physically
    based model. <i>Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface</i>. 2015;120(3):507-533.
    doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/2014jf003232">10.1002/2014jf003232</a>'
  apa: 'Francipane, A., Fatichi, S., Ivanov, V. Y., &#38; Noto, L. V. (2015). Stochastic
    assessment of climate impacts on hydrology and geomorphology of semiarid headwater
    basins using a physically based model. <i>Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth
    Surface</i>. American Geophysical Union. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/2014jf003232">https://doi.org/10.1002/2014jf003232</a>'
  chicago: 'Francipane, A., Simone Fatichi, V. Y. Ivanov, and L. V. Noto. “Stochastic
    Assessment of Climate Impacts on Hydrology and Geomorphology of Semiarid Headwater
    Basins Using a Physically Based Model.” <i>Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth
    Surface</i>. American Geophysical Union, 2015. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/2014jf003232">https://doi.org/10.1002/2014jf003232</a>.'
  ieee: 'A. Francipane, S. Fatichi, V. Y. Ivanov, and L. V. Noto, “Stochastic assessment
    of climate impacts on hydrology and geomorphology of semiarid headwater basins
    using a physically based model,” <i>Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface</i>,
    vol. 120, no. 3. American Geophysical Union, pp. 507–533, 2015.'
  ista: 'Francipane A, Fatichi S, Ivanov VY, Noto LV. 2015. Stochastic assessment
    of climate impacts on hydrology and geomorphology of semiarid headwater basins
    using a physically based model. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface.
    120(3), 507–533.'
  mla: 'Francipane, A., et al. “Stochastic Assessment of Climate Impacts on Hydrology
    and Geomorphology of Semiarid Headwater Basins Using a Physically Based Model.”
    <i>Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface</i>, vol. 120, no. 3, American
    Geophysical Union, 2015, pp. 507–33, doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/2014jf003232">10.1002/2014jf003232</a>.'
  short: 'A. Francipane, S. Fatichi, V.Y. Ivanov, L.V. Noto, Journal of Geophysical
    Research: Earth Surface 120 (2015) 507–533.'
das_tickbox: '1'
date_created: 2026-07-27T12:30:24Z
date_published: 2015-03-01T00:00:00Z
date_updated: 2026-08-03T14:15:02Z
day: '01'
doi: 10.1002/2014jf003232
extern: '1'
intvolume: '       120'
issue: '3'
language:
- iso: eng
month: '03'
oa_version: None
page: 507-533
publication: 'Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface'
publication_identifier:
  eissn:
  - 2169-9011
  issn:
  - 2169-9003
publication_status: published
publisher: American Geophysical Union
quality_controlled: '1'
scopus_import: '1'
status: public
title: Stochastic assessment of climate impacts on hydrology and geomorphology of
  semiarid headwater basins using a physically based model
type: journal_article
user_id: 2DF688A6-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87
volume: 120
year: '2015'
...