---
OA_place: publisher
OA_type: hybrid
_id: '22572'
abstract:
- lang: eng
  text: 'Urban expansion alters landscape structure and hydrological processes, heightening
    pluvial flood risks in cities worldwide. This study integrates multi-temporal
    urban expansion data with the CAFlood cellular automata model to simulate rainfall
    events with multiple return periods (i.e., 1-in-10, 1-in-100, and 1-in-200 year
    return periods) across three different urban environments: Shenzhen (China), suburban
    Houston (United States), and Lausanne (Switzerland). To quantify how evolving
    urban morphology drives flood volume, we computed key landscape metrics describing
    impervious extent (percentage of impervious surface), green space shape complexity
    (Area-weighted Mean Shape Index), green space aggregation (Aggregation Index),
    and impervious edge complexity (Landscape Shape Index). Their effects on changes
    in flood volume were analysed with Generalised Additive Models stratified by levels
    of pre-expansion impervious cover. The results show that decreasing green space
    aggregation and impervious edge complexity are consistently significant indicators
    of increased flood volumes, particularly in areas with low pre-expansion impervious
    cover (<50 %). However, the influence of these two key morphological indicators
    decline as impervious coverage increases, with total imperviousness gradually
    becoming the dominant factor. Sensitivity experiments with synthetic urban fabrics
    confirm that maintaining compact, well-connected green spaces can limit the increase
    in flood volume even with when impervious surfaces expand equally. By explicitly
    linking the morphological changes in urban form to pluvial flood response across
    diverse climates and urbanisation context, this study moves beyond static approaches
    and provides actionable insights for planning flood-resilient urban growth.'
article_number: '107018'
article_processing_charge: No
article_type: original
author:
- first_name: Yue
  full_name: Zhu, Yue
  last_name: Zhu
- first_name: Paolo
  full_name: Burlando, Paolo
  last_name: Burlando
- first_name: Ye
  full_name: Zhang, Ye
  last_name: Zhang
- first_name: Dengkai
  full_name: Chi, Dengkai
  last_name: Chi
- first_name: Jing
  full_name: Wang, Jing
  last_name: Wang
- first_name: Yeshan
  full_name: Qiu, Yeshan
  last_name: Qiu
- first_name: Matteo
  full_name: Bonatesta, Matteo
  last_name: Bonatesta
- first_name: Wenyue
  full_name: Zou, Wenyue
  last_name: Zou
- first_name: Christian
  full_name: Geiß, Christian
  last_name: Geiß
- first_name: Puay Yok
  full_name: Tan, Puay Yok
  last_name: Tan
- first_name: Simone
  full_name: Fatichi, Simone
  id: cf8e546b-a9b0-11f0-a43b-aa89ed1b56d6
  last_name: Fatichi
citation:
  ama: Zhu Y, Burlando P, Zhang Y, et al. The influence of urban morphological changes
    on pluvial flooding during urban expansion. <i>Sustainable Cities and Society</i>.
    2025;135. doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2025.107018">10.1016/j.scs.2025.107018</a>
  apa: Zhu, Y., Burlando, P., Zhang, Y., Chi, D., Wang, J., Qiu, Y., … Fatichi, S.
    (2025). The influence of urban morphological changes on pluvial flooding during
    urban expansion. <i>Sustainable Cities and Society</i>. Elsevier. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2025.107018">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2025.107018</a>
  chicago: Zhu, Yue, Paolo Burlando, Ye Zhang, Dengkai Chi, Jing Wang, Yeshan Qiu,
    Matteo Bonatesta, et al. “The Influence of Urban Morphological Changes on Pluvial
    Flooding during Urban Expansion.” <i>Sustainable Cities and Society</i>. Elsevier,
    2025. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2025.107018">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2025.107018</a>.
  ieee: Y. Zhu <i>et al.</i>, “The influence of urban morphological changes on pluvial
    flooding during urban expansion,” <i>Sustainable Cities and Society</i>, vol.
    135. Elsevier, 2025.
  ista: Zhu Y, Burlando P, Zhang Y, Chi D, Wang J, Qiu Y, Bonatesta M, Zou W, Geiß
    C, Tan PY, Fatichi S. 2025. The influence of urban morphological changes on pluvial
    flooding during urban expansion. Sustainable Cities and Society. 135, 107018.
  mla: Zhu, Yue, et al. “The Influence of Urban Morphological Changes on Pluvial Flooding
    during Urban Expansion.” <i>Sustainable Cities and Society</i>, vol. 135, 107018,
    Elsevier, 2025, doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2025.107018">10.1016/j.scs.2025.107018</a>.
  short: Y. Zhu, P. Burlando, Y. Zhang, D. Chi, J. Wang, Y. Qiu, M. Bonatesta, W.
    Zou, C. Geiß, P.Y. Tan, S. Fatichi, Sustainable Cities and Society 135 (2025).
das_tickbox: '1'
date_created: 2026-07-27T12:30:24Z
date_published: 2025-12-15T00:00:00Z
date_updated: 2026-08-07T10:58:46Z
day: '15'
doi: 10.1016/j.scs.2025.107018
extern: '1'
intvolume: '       135'
keyword:
- Urban morphology
- Urban expansion
- Pluvial flood
- Flood resilience
language:
- iso: eng
main_file_link:
- open_access: '1'
  url: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2025.107018
month: '12'
oa: 1
oa_version: Published Version
publication: Sustainable Cities and Society
publication_identifier:
  eissn:
  - 2210-6715
  issn:
  - 2210-6707
publication_status: published
publisher: Elsevier
quality_controlled: '1'
scopus_import: '1'
status: public
title: The influence of urban morphological changes on pluvial flooding during urban
  expansion
tmp:
  image: /images/cc_by.png
  legal_code_url: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode
  name: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (CC-BY 4.0)
  short: CC BY (4.0)
type: journal_article
user_id: ba8df636-2132-11f1-aed0-ed93e2281fdd
volume: 135
year: '2025'
...