{"citation":{"apa":"Davin, A., Charinti, G. A., Muller, C. J., Polesello, A., &#38; Pasquero, C. (2026). Stratospheric influence on tropical cyclone evolution. <i>Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society</i>. Wiley. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.70280\">https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.70280</a>","chicago":"Davin, Andrea, Giousef Alexandros Charinti, Caroline J Muller, Andrea Polesello, and Claudia Pasquero. “Stratospheric Influence on Tropical Cyclone Evolution.” <i>Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society</i>. Wiley, 2026. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.70280\">https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.70280</a>.","ista":"Davin A, Charinti GA, Muller CJ, Polesello A, Pasquero C. 2026. Stratospheric influence on tropical cyclone evolution. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society., e70280.","short":"A. Davin, G.A. Charinti, C.J. Muller, A. Polesello, C. Pasquero, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (2026).","ieee":"A. Davin, G. A. Charinti, C. J. Muller, A. Polesello, and C. Pasquero, “Stratospheric influence on tropical cyclone evolution,” <i>Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society</i>. Wiley, 2026.","ama":"Davin A, Charinti GA, Muller CJ, Polesello A, Pasquero C. Stratospheric influence on tropical cyclone evolution. <i>Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society</i>. 2026. doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.70280\">10.1002/qj.70280</a>","mla":"Davin, Andrea, et al. “Stratospheric Influence on Tropical Cyclone Evolution.” <i>Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society</i>, e70280, Wiley, 2026, doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.70280\">10.1002/qj.70280</a>."},"project":[{"grant_number":"805041","name":"Organization of CLoUdS, and implications of Tropical  cyclones and for the Energetics of the tropics, in current and waRming climate","call_identifier":"H2020","_id":"629205d8-2b32-11ec-9570-e1356ff73576"}],"date_updated":"2026-09-09T12:43:30Z","supplementarymaterial":"yes","user_id":"2DF688A6-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87","title":"Stratospheric influence on tropical cyclone evolution","_id":"22818","status":"public","date_created":"2026-09-06T22:01:57Z","author":[{"first_name":"Andrea","last_name":"Davin","full_name":"Davin, Andrea"},{"full_name":"Charinti, Giousef Alexandros","id":"7f7cc04c-074c-11ed-af92-eb16afd85c75","last_name":"Charinti","first_name":"Giousef Alexandros"},{"last_name":"Muller","first_name":"Caroline J","id":"f978ccb0-3f7f-11eb-b193-b0e2bd13182b","orcid":"0000-0001-5836-5350","full_name":"Muller, Caroline J"},{"full_name":"Polesello, Andrea","first_name":"Andrea","last_name":"Polesello","id":"74c777f4-32da-11ee-b498-874db0835561"},{"full_name":"Pasquero, Claudia","first_name":"Claudia","last_name":"Pasquero"}],"type":"journal_article","oa_version":"Published Version","article_type":"original","abstract":[{"lang":"eng","text":"Physical processes at play in the genesis and evolution of tropical cyclones are conducive to the formation of warm cores at their centres. When the warm anomaly is particularly large in the upper troposphere, it is referred to as a high-level warm core. Previous works documented the generation of high-level warm cores as a consequence of stratospheric air intrusion into the troposphere induced by the upper-level dynamics of a tropical cyclone. However, little attention has been given to their effects on the storm's subsequent evolution. It has been suggested that the presence of a high-level warm core can have opposite effects on tropical cyclone intensity: both strengthening and weakening have been described as possible consequences of its formation. In this study, we examine the role of high-level warm cores in the intensification and dissipation processes of tropical cyclones, as reproduced in numerical models of different complexities, namely the model “System for Atmospheric Modeling” (SAM) run under idealized conditions and the model Nonhydrostatic ICosahedral Atmospheric Model run under realistic conditions following the DYnamics of the Atmospheric general circulation Modeled On Non-hydrostatic Domains summer protocol. Our results confirm the hypothesis of a stratospheric origin behind the formation of high-level warm cores. Their initial role is shown to be an enhancement of storm intensity, by a lowering of the hydrostatic sea-level pressure (HSLP) associated with the presence of warm air aloft. However, as the warm anomaly intensifies and extends to lower levels, it also increases static stability in the air column, with the consequence of inhibiting convection and ultimately contributing to cyclone dissipation. These findings suggest that high-level warm cores play a dual role in the tropical cyclone life cycle, providing a stabilizing mechanism that can limit cyclone strength and longevity."}],"OA_type":"hybrid","OA_place":"publisher","language":[{"iso":"eng"}],"publication":"Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society","scopus_import":"1","acknowledgement":"The authors thank Tom Beucler, Hamish Ramsay, and two anonymous reviewers for insightful comments and constructive feedback on earlier versions of this work.\r\n\r\nThis work is partially funded by the National Recovery and Resilience Plan project TeRABIT (Terabit network for Research and Academic Big data in Italy—IR0000022—PNRRMissione4—Componente2—Investim ento3.1—CUPI53C21000370006) in the frame of the European Union—NextGenerationEU funding. C. Muller gratefully acknowledges funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (Project CLUSTER, Grant 805041). This work is an outcome of the project MIUR—Dipartimenti di Eccellenza 2023–2027.\r\n\r\nThis work used resources of the Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ) granted by its Scientific Steering Committee (WLA) under project bb1153. Open access publishing facilitated by Universita degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca, as part of the Wiley - CRUI-CARE agreement.","ec_funded":1,"publication_identifier":{"issn":["0035-9009"],"eissn":["1477-870X"]},"has_accepted_license":"1","date_published":"2026-08-26T00:00:00Z","article_processing_charge":"Yes (via OA deal)","das_tickbox":"1","fulldoi":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.70280","main_file_link":[{"open_access":"1","url":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.70280"}],"tmp":{"image":"/images/cc_by.png","legal_code_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode","short":"CC BY (4.0)","name":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (CC-BY 4.0)"},"ddc":["550"],"publication_status":"epub_ahead","quality_controlled":"1","year":"2026","article_number":"e70280","researchdata_availability":"upon request","doi":"10.1002/qj.70280","dataavailabilitystatement":"The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.","day":"26","oa":1,"publisher":"Wiley","department":[{"_id":"CaMu"},{"_id":"GradSch"}],"month":"08"}