---
OA_place: publisher
OA_type: hybrid
_id: '22818'
abstract:
- lang: eng
text: 'Physical processes at play in the genesis and evolution of tropical cyclones
are conducive to the formation of warm cores at their centres. When the warm anomaly
is particularly large in the upper troposphere, it is referred to as a high-level
warm core. Previous works documented the generation of high-level warm cores as
a consequence of stratospheric air intrusion into the troposphere induced by the
upper-level dynamics of a tropical cyclone. However, little attention has been
given to their effects on the storm''s subsequent evolution. It has been suggested
that the presence of a high-level warm core can have opposite effects on tropical
cyclone intensity: both strengthening and weakening have been described as possible
consequences of its formation. In this study, we examine the role of high-level
warm cores in the intensification and dissipation processes of tropical cyclones,
as reproduced in numerical models of different complexities, namely the model
“System for Atmospheric Modeling” (SAM) run under idealized conditions and the
model Nonhydrostatic ICosahedral Atmospheric Model run under realistic conditions
following the DYnamics of the Atmospheric general circulation Modeled On Non-hydrostatic
Domains summer protocol. Our results confirm the hypothesis of a stratospheric
origin behind the formation of high-level warm cores. Their initial role is shown
to be an enhancement of storm intensity, by a lowering of the hydrostatic sea-level
pressure (HSLP) associated with the presence of warm air aloft. However, as the
warm anomaly intensifies and extends to lower levels, it also increases static
stability in the air column, with the consequence of inhibiting convection and
ultimately contributing to cyclone dissipation. These findings suggest that high-level
warm cores play a dual role in the tropical cyclone life cycle, providing a stabilizing
mechanism that can limit cyclone strength and longevity.'
acknowledgement: "The authors thank Tom Beucler, Hamish Ramsay, and two anonymous
reviewers for insightful comments and constructive feedback on earlier versions
of this work.\r\n\r\nThis work is partially funded by the National Recovery and
Resilience Plan project TeRABIT (Terabit network for Research and Academic Big data
in Italy—IR0000022—PNRRMissione4—Componente2—Investim ento3.1—CUPI53C21000370006)
in the frame of the European Union—NextGenerationEU funding. C. Muller gratefully
acknowledges funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European
Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (Project CLUSTER, Grant 805041).
This work is an outcome of the project MIUR—Dipartimenti di Eccellenza 2023–2027.\r\n\r\nThis
work used resources of the Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ) granted by its Scientific
Steering Committee (WLA) under project bb1153. Open access publishing facilitated
by Universita degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca, as part of the Wiley - CRUI-CARE agreement."
article_number: e70280
article_processing_charge: Yes (via OA deal)
article_type: original
author:
- first_name: Andrea
full_name: Davin, Andrea
last_name: Davin
- first_name: Giousef Alexandros
full_name: Charinti, Giousef Alexandros
id: 7f7cc04c-074c-11ed-af92-eb16afd85c75
last_name: Charinti
- first_name: Caroline J
full_name: Muller, Caroline J
id: f978ccb0-3f7f-11eb-b193-b0e2bd13182b
last_name: Muller
orcid: 0000-0001-5836-5350
- first_name: Andrea
full_name: Polesello, Andrea
id: 74c777f4-32da-11ee-b498-874db0835561
last_name: Polesello
- first_name: Claudia
full_name: Pasquero, Claudia
last_name: Pasquero
citation:
ama: Davin A, Charinti GA, Muller CJ, Polesello A, Pasquero C. Stratospheric influence
on tropical cyclone evolution. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological
Society. 2026. doi:10.1002/qj.70280
apa: Davin, A., Charinti, G. A., Muller, C. J., Polesello, A., & Pasquero, C.
(2026). Stratospheric influence on tropical cyclone evolution. Quarterly Journal
of the Royal Meteorological Society. Wiley. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.70280
chicago: Davin, Andrea, Giousef Alexandros Charinti, Caroline J Muller, Andrea Polesello,
and Claudia Pasquero. “Stratospheric Influence on Tropical Cyclone Evolution.”
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. Wiley, 2026. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.70280.
ieee: A. Davin, G. A. Charinti, C. J. Muller, A. Polesello, and C. Pasquero, “Stratospheric
influence on tropical cyclone evolution,” Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological
Society. Wiley, 2026.
ista: Davin A, Charinti GA, Muller CJ, Polesello A, Pasquero C. 2026. Stratospheric
influence on tropical cyclone evolution. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological
Society., e70280.
mla: Davin, Andrea, et al. “Stratospheric Influence on Tropical Cyclone Evolution.”
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, e70280, Wiley, 2026,
doi:10.1002/qj.70280.
short: A. Davin, G.A. Charinti, C.J. Muller, A. Polesello, C. Pasquero, Quarterly
Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (2026).
das_tickbox: '1'
dataavailabilitystatement: The data that support the findings of this study are available
from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
date_created: 2026-09-06T22:01:57Z
date_published: 2026-08-26T00:00:00Z
date_updated: 2026-09-09T12:43:30Z
day: '26'
ddc:
- '550'
department:
- _id: CaMu
- _id: GradSch
doi: 10.1002/qj.70280
ec_funded: 1
fulldoi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.70280
has_accepted_license: '1'
language:
- iso: eng
main_file_link:
- open_access: '1'
url: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.70280
month: '08'
oa: 1
oa_version: Published Version
project:
- _id: 629205d8-2b32-11ec-9570-e1356ff73576
call_identifier: H2020
grant_number: '805041'
name: Organization of CLoUdS, and implications of Tropical cyclones and for the
Energetics of the tropics, in current and waRming climate
publication: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
publication_identifier:
eissn:
- 1477-870X
issn:
- 0035-9009
publication_status: epub_ahead
publisher: Wiley
quality_controlled: '1'
researchdata_availability: upon request
scopus_import: '1'
status: public
supplementarymaterial: yes
title: Stratospheric influence on tropical cyclone evolution
tmp:
image: /images/cc_by.png
legal_code_url: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode
name: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (CC-BY 4.0)
short: CC BY (4.0)
type: journal_article
user_id: 2DF688A6-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A87
year: '2026'
...