article published yes Johannes Reiter author 4A918E98-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A870000-0002-0170-7353 Ivana Božić author Benjamin Allen author 135B5B70-E9D2-11E9-BD74-BB415DA2B523 Krishnendu Chatterjee author 2E5DCA20-F248-11E8-B48F-1D18A9856A870000-0002-4561-241X Martin Nowak author KrCh department Quantitative Graph Games: Theory and Applications project Game Theory project Tumor growth is caused by the acquisition of driver mutations, which enhance the net reproductive rate of cells. Driver mutations may increase cell division, reduce cell death, or allow cells to overcome density-limiting effects. We study the dynamics of tumor growth as one additional driver mutation is acquired. Our models are based on two-type branching processes that terminate in either tumor disappearance or tumor detection. In our first model, both cell types grow exponentially, with a faster rate for cells carrying the additional driver. We find that the additional driver mutation does not affect the survival probability of the lesion, but can substantially reduce the time to reach the detectable size if the lesion is slow growing. In our second model, cells lacking the additional driver cannot exceed a fixed carrying capacity, due to density limitations. In this case, the time to detection depends strongly on this carrying capacity. Our model provides a quantitative framework for studying tumor dynamics during different stages of progression. We observe that early, small lesions need additional drivers, while late stage metastases are only marginally affected by them. These results help to explain why additional driver mutations are typically not detected in fast-growing metastases. https://research-explorer.ista.ac.at/download/2858/5173/IST-2016-415-v1+1_Reiter_et_al-2013-Evolutionary_Applications.pdf application/pdfno https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Wiley-Blackwell2013 eng 00031387880000410.1111/eva.12020 6134 - 45 https://research-explorer.ista.ac.at/record/1400 J. Reiter, I. Božić, B. Allen, K. Chatterjee, and M. Nowak, “The effect of one additional driver mutation on tumor progression,” <i>Evolutionary Applications</i>, vol. 6, no. 1. Wiley-Blackwell, pp. 34–45, 2013. Reiter J, Božić I, Allen B, Chatterjee K, Nowak M. The effect of one additional driver mutation on tumor progression. <i>Evolutionary Applications</i>. 2013;6(1):34-45. doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/eva.12020">10.1111/eva.12020</a> Reiter, Johannes, et al. “The Effect of One Additional Driver Mutation on Tumor Progression.” <i>Evolutionary Applications</i>, vol. 6, no. 1, Wiley-Blackwell, 2013, pp. 34–45, doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/eva.12020">10.1111/eva.12020</a>. J. Reiter, I. Božić, B. Allen, K. Chatterjee, M. Nowak, Evolutionary Applications 6 (2013) 34–45. Reiter J, Božić I, Allen B, Chatterjee K, Nowak M. 2013. The effect of one additional driver mutation on tumor progression. Evolutionary Applications. 6(1), 34–45. Reiter, J., Božić, I., Allen, B., Chatterjee, K., &#38; Nowak, M. (2013). The effect of one additional driver mutation on tumor progression. <i>Evolutionary Applications</i>. Wiley-Blackwell. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/eva.12020">https://doi.org/10.1111/eva.12020</a> Reiter, Johannes, Ivana Božić, Benjamin Allen, Krishnendu Chatterjee, and Martin Nowak. “The Effect of One Additional Driver Mutation on Tumor Progression.” <i>Evolutionary Applications</i>. Wiley-Blackwell, 2013. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/eva.12020">https://doi.org/10.1111/eva.12020</a>. 28582018-12-11T11:59:58Z2025-09-29T13:38:52Z