An assessment of the ENSO-monsoon teleconnection in a warming climate

Goswami, Bidyut B; An, Soon Il

An assessment of the ENSO-monsoon teleconnection in a warming climate

GOSWAMI BB, An SI. 2023. An assessment of the ENSO-monsoon teleconnection in a warming climate. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. 6, 82.

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2023_npjclimate_Goswami.pdf 1.75 MB [Published Version]

DOI

10.1038/s41612-023-00411-5

Journal Article | Published | English

Scopus indexed

Author

GOSWAMI, BIDYUT B^ISTA; An, Soon Il

Department

Muller Group

Abstract

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian summer monsoon (ISM, or monsoon) are two giants of tropical climate. Here we assess the future evolution of the ENSO-monsoon teleconnection in climate simulations with idealized forcing of CO2 increment at a rate of 1% year-1 starting from a present-day condition (367 p.p.m.) until quadrupling. We find a monotonous weakening of the ENSO-monsoon teleconnection with the increase in CO2. Increased co-occurrences of El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipoles (pIODs) in a warmer climate weaken the teleconnection. Co-occurrences of El Niño and pIOD are attributable to mean sea surface temperature (SST) warming that resembles a pIOD-type warming pattern in the Indian Ocean and an El Niño-type warming in the Pacific. Since ENSO is a critical precursor of the strength of the Indian monsoon, a weakening of this relation may mean a less predictable Indian monsoon in a warmer climate.

Publishing Year

2023

Date Published

2023-07-08

Journal Title

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

Publisher

Springer Nature

Acknowledgement

This work was supported by National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grants funded by the Korean government (MSIT) (NRF-2018R1A5A1024958, RS-2023-00208000). Model simulation and data transfer were supported by the National Supercomputing Center with supercomputing resources including technical support (KSC-2019-CHA-0005), the National Center for Meteorological Supercomputer of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), and by the Korea Research Environment Open NETwork (KREONET), respectively. We sincerely thank Dr. Jongsoo Shin of Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang, South Korea for the model simulations.

Volume

Article Number

eISSN

2397-3722

IST-REx-ID

13256

Cite this

GOSWAMI BB, An SI. An assessment of the ENSO-monsoon teleconnection in a warming climate. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. 2023;6. doi:10.1038/s41612-023-00411-5

GOSWAMI, B. B., & An, S. I. (2023). An assessment of the ENSO-monsoon teleconnection in a warming climate. Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. Springer Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00411-5

GOSWAMI, BIDYUT B, and Soon Il An. “An Assessment of the ENSO-Monsoon Teleconnection in a Warming Climate.” Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. Springer Nature, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00411-5.

B. B. GOSWAMI and S. I. An, “An assessment of the ENSO-monsoon teleconnection in a warming climate,” npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, vol. 6. Springer Nature, 2023.

GOSWAMI BB, An SI. 2023. An assessment of the ENSO-monsoon teleconnection in a warming climate. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. 6, 82.

GOSWAMI, BIDYUT B., and Soon Il An. “An Assessment of the ENSO-Monsoon Teleconnection in a Warming Climate.” Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, vol. 6, 82, Springer Nature, 2023, doi:10.1038/s41612-023-00411-5.

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