A recursive lower bound on the energy improvement of the quantum approximate optimization algorithm

The quantum approximate optimization algorithm (QAOA) uses a quantum computer to implement a variational method with $2p$ layers of alternating unitary operators, optimized by a classical computer to minimize a cost function. While rigorous performance guarantees exist for the QAOA at small depths $p$, the behavior at large depths remains less clear, though simulations suggest exponentially fast convergence for certain problems. In this work, we gain insights into the deep QAOA using an analytic expansion of the cost function around transition states. Transition states are constructed in a recursive manner: from the local minima of the QAOA with $p$ layers we obtain transition states of the QAOA with $p+1$ layers, which are stationary points characterized by a unique direction of negative curvature. We construct an analytic estimate of the negative curvature and the corresponding direction in parameter space at each transition state. The expansion of the QAOA cost function along the negative direction to the quartic order gives a lower bound of the QAOA cost function improvement. We provide physical intuition behind the analytic expressions for the local curvature and quartic expansion coefficient. Our numerical study confirms the accuracy of our approximations and reveals that the obtained bound and the true value of the QAOA cost function gain have a characteristic exponential decrease with the number of layers $p$, with the bound decreasing more rapidly. Our study establishes an analytical method for recursively studying the QAOA that is applicable in the regime of high circuit depth.