Spin evolution of stellar-mass black hole binaries in active galactic nuclei

The astrophysical origin of gravitational wave (GW) events is one of the most timely problems in the wake of the LIGO/Virgo discoveries. In active galactic nuclei (AGN), binaries form and evolve efficiently by dynamical interactions and gaseous dissipation. Previous studies have suggested that binary black hole (BBH) mergers in AGN disks can contribute significantly to BBH mergers observed by GW interferometers. Here we examine the distribution of the effective spin parameter χeff of this GW source population. We extend our semi-analytical model of binary formation and evolution in AGN disks by following the evolution of the binary orbital angular momenta and black hole (BH) spins. BH spins change due to gas accretion and BH mergers, while the binary orbital angular momenta evolve due to gas accretion and binary-single interactions. We find that the distribution of χeff predicted by our AGN model is similar to the distribution observed during LIGO/Virgo O1 and O2. On the other hand, if radial migration of BHs is inefficient, χeff is skewed toward higher values compared with the observed distribution, because of the paucity of scattering events that would randomize spin directions relative to the orbital plane. We suggest that high binary masses and the positive correlation between binary mass and the standard deviation of χeff for chirp masses up to ≈20 M⊙, can be possible signatures for mergers originating in AGN disks. Finally, hierarchical mergers in AGN disks naturally produce properties of the recent GW event GW190412, including a low mass ratio, a high primary BH spin, and a significant spin component in the orbital plane.