Witnessing the birth of a quasar

The coalescence of a supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) is thought to be accompanied by an electromagnetic (EM) afterglow, produced by the viscous infall of the surrounding circumbinary gas disk after the merger. It has been proposed that once the merger has been detected in gravitational waves (GWs) by LISA, follow-up EM searches for this afterglow can help identify the EM counterpart of the LISA source. Here we study whether the afterglows may be sufficiently bright and numerous to be detectable in EM surveys alone. The viscous afterglow, which lasts for years to decades for SMBHBs in LISA's sensitivity window, is characterized by rapid increases in both the bolometric luminosity and in the spectral hardness of the source. If quasar activity is triggered by the same major galaxy mergers that produce SMBHBs, then the afterglow could be interpreted as a signature of the birth of a quasar. Using an idealized model for the post-merger viscous spreading of the circumbinary disk and the resulting light curve, and using the observed luminosity function of quasars as a proxy for the SMBHB merger rate, we delineate the survey requirements for identifying such birthing quasars. If circumbinary disks have a high disk surface density and viscosity, an all-sky soft X-ray survey with a sensitivity of ~<3x10^-14 erg s^-1 cm^-2 and a time resolution of ~months could identify dozens of birthing quasars with sustained brightening rates of >10%/yr. If >1% of the X-ray emission is reprocessed into optical frequencies, birthing quasars could also be identified in optical transient surveys such as the LSST. Distinguishing a birthing quasar from other variable sources may be facilitated by the monotonic hardening of its spectrum, but will likely remain challenging. This reinforces the notion that joint EM-plus-GW observations offer the best prospects for identifying the EM signatures of SMBHB mergers.