Snowfall decrease in recent years undermines glacier health and meltwater resources in the Northwestern Pamirs

Central Asia hosts some of the world’s last relatively healthy mountain glaciers and is heavily dependent on snow and ice melt for downstream water supply, though the causes of this stable glacier state are not known. We combine recent in-situ observations, climate reanalysis and remote sensing data to force a land-surface model to reconstruct glacier changes over the last two decades (1999–2023) and disentangle their causes over a benchmark glacierized catchment in Tajikistan. We show that snowfall and snow depth have been substantially lower since 2018, leading to a decline in glacier health and reduced runoff generation. Remote-sensing observations confirm wider snow depletion across the Northwestern Pamirs, suggesting that a lack of snowfall might be a cause of mass losses regionally. Our results provide an explanation for the recent decline in glacier health in the region, and reinforce the need to better understand the variability of precipitation.