On the effects of small scale space–time variability of rainfall on basin flood response

The spatio-temporal variability of rainfall, especially at fine temporal and spatial scales can significantly affect flood generation, leading to a large variability in the flood response and uncertainty in its prediction. In this study we quantify the impact of rainfall spatial and temporal structure on the catchment hydrological response based on a numerical experiment. Rainfall ensembles generated using a state-of-the-art space–time stochastic model are used as input into a distributed process-based hydrological model. The sensitivity of the hydrograph to several structural characteristics of storm rainfall for three soil moisture initial conditions is numerically assessed at the basin outlet of an Alpine catchment in central Switzerland. The results highlight that the flood response is strongly affected by the temporal correlation of rainfall and to a lesser extent by its spatial variability. Initial soil moisture conditions play a paramount role in mediating the response. We identify the underlying mechanistic explanations in terms of runoff generation and connectivity of saturated areas that determine the sensitivity of flood response to the spatio-temporal variability of rainfall. We show that the element that mostly influences both the flood peak and the time of peak occurrence is the clustering of saturated areas in the catchment which leads to local enhanced runoff.