Bayesian model adequacy and choice in phylogenetics

Bollback JP. 2002. Bayesian model adequacy and choice in phylogenetics. Molecular Biology and Evolution. 19(7), 1171–80.

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Journal Article | Published | English

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Abstract
Bayesian inference is becoming a common statistical approach to phylogenetic estimation because, among other reasons, it allows for rapid analysis of large data sets with complex evolutionary models. Conveniently, Bayesian phylogenetic methods use currently available stochastic models of sequence evolution. However, as with other model-based approaches, the results of Bayesian inference are conditional on the assumed model of evolution: inadequate models (models that poorly fit the data) may result in erroneous inferences. In this article, I present a Bayesian phylogenetic method that evaluates the adequacy of evolutionary models using posterior predictive distributions. By evaluating a model's posterior predictive performance, an adequate model can be selected for a Bayesian phylogenetic study. Although I present a single test statistic that assesses the overall (global) performance of a phylogenetic model, a variety of test statistics can be tailored to evaluate specific features (local performance) of evolutionary models to identify sources failure. The method presented here, unlike the likelihood-ratio test and parametric bootstrap, accounts for uncertainty in the phylogeny and model parameters.
Publishing Year
Date Published
2002-03-25
Journal Title
Molecular Biology and Evolution
Acknowledgement
This work was supported by grants from the NSF to John Huelsenbeck (MCB-0075404 and DEB0075406), to whom I am grateful for his support throughout this project. Also, I would like to express my deep thanks to Andrea Betancourt, John Huelsenbeck, Kelly Dyer, Rasmus Nielsen, and Frederick Ronquist for taking the time to read early versions of the manuscript. Each and every one of them provided invaluable comments, that ultimately made the manuscript better. John Huelsenbeck, Bret Larget, Rasmus Nielsen, Ken Karol, and Andrea Betancourt patiently listened to me drone on about this project, and offered insightful comments that benefited this work, and for this they have my deepest gratitude. And finally, I would like to thank two anonymous reviewers who gave critical attention to the manuscript and provided valuable comments.
Volume
19
Issue
7
Page
1171 - 80
ISSN
IST-REx-ID

Cite this

Bollback JP. Bayesian model adequacy and choice in phylogenetics. Molecular Biology and Evolution. 2002;19(7):1171-1180. doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.molbev.a004175
Bollback, J. P. (2002). Bayesian model adequacy and choice in phylogenetics. Molecular Biology and Evolution. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.molbev.a004175
Bollback, Jonathan P. “Bayesian Model Adequacy and Choice in Phylogenetics.” Molecular Biology and Evolution. Oxford University Press, 2002. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.molbev.a004175.
J. P. Bollback, “Bayesian model adequacy and choice in phylogenetics,” Molecular Biology and Evolution, vol. 19, no. 7. Oxford University Press, pp. 1171–80, 2002.
Bollback JP. 2002. Bayesian model adequacy and choice in phylogenetics. Molecular Biology and Evolution. 19(7), 1171–80.
Bollback, Jonathan P. “Bayesian Model Adequacy and Choice in Phylogenetics.” Molecular Biology and Evolution, vol. 19, no. 7, Oxford University Press, 2002, pp. 1171–80, doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.molbev.a004175.

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PMID: 12082136
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