A stretched exponential bound on the rate of growth of the number of periodic points for prevalent diffeomorphisms I

For diffeomorphisms of smooth compact manifolds, we consider the problem of how fast the number of periodic points with period $n$grows as a function of $n$. In many familiar cases (e.g., Anosov systems) the growth is exponential, but arbitrarily fast growth is possible; in fact, the first author has shown that arbitrarily fast growth is topologically (Baire) generic for $C^2$ or smoother diffeomorphisms. In the present work we show that, by contrast, for a measure-theoretic notion of genericity we call ``prevalence'', the growth is not much faster than exponential. Specifically, we show that for each $\delta > 0$, there is a prevalent set of ( $C^{1+\rho}$ or smoother) diffeomorphisms for which the number of period $n$ points is bounded above by $\operatorname{exp}(C n^{1+\delta})$ for some $C$ independent of $n$. We also obtain a related bound on the decay of the hyperbolicity of the periodic points as a function of $n$. The contrast between topologically generic and measure-theoretically generic behavior for the growth of the number of periodic points and the decay of their hyperbolicity shows this to be a subtle and complex phenomenon, reminiscent of KAM theory.