Coexistence times in the Moran process with environmental heterogeneity

Populations evolve in spatially heterogeneous environments. While a certain trait might bring a fitness advantage in some patch of the environment, a different trait might be advantageous in another patch. Here, we study the Moran birth–death process with two types of individuals in a population stretched across two patches of size N, each patch favouring one of the two types. We show that the long-term fate of such populations crucially depends on the migration rate μ between the patches. To classify the possible fates, we use the distinction between polynomial (short) and exponential (long) timescales. We show that when μ is high then one of the two types fixates on the whole population after a number of steps that is only polynomial in N. By contrast, when μ is low then each type holds majority in the patch where it is favoured for a number of steps that is at least exponential in N. Moreover, we precisely identify the threshold migration rate μ⋆ that separates those two scenarios, thereby exactly delineating the situations that support long-term coexistence of the two types. We also discuss the case of various cycle graphs and we present computer simulations that perfectly match our analytical results.