Arctic tundra ecosystems under fire—Alternative ecosystem states in a changing climate?

Heim RJ, Rocha AV, Zemlianskii V, Barrett K, Bültmann H, Breen A, Frost GV, Hollingsworth TN, Jandt R, Kozlova M, Kurka A, Jorgenson MT, Landhäusser SM, Loranty MM, Miller EA, Narita K, Pravdolyubova E, Hölzel N, Schaepman-Strub G. 2025. Arctic tundra ecosystems under fire—Alternative ecosystem states in a changing climate? Journal of Ecology.

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Author
Heim, Ramona Julia; Rocha, Adrian V.; Zemlianskii, Vitalii; Barrett, Kirsten; Bültmann, Helga; Breen, Amy; Frost, Gerald Verner; Hollingsworth, Teresa Nettleton; Jandt, Randi; Kozlova, Maria; Kurka, Anastasiya; Jorgenson, Mark Torre
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Abstract
1. Climate change is expected to induce shifts in the composition, structure and functioning of Arctic tundra ecosystems. Increases in the frequency and severity of tundra fires have the potential to catalyse vegetation transitions with far-reaching local, regional and global consequences. 2. We propose that post-fire tundra recovery, coupled with climate change, may not necessarily lead to pre-fire conditions. Our hypothesis, based on surveys and literature, suggests two climate–fire driven trajectories. One trajectory results in increased woody vegetation under low fire frequency; the other results in grass dominance under high frequency. 3. Future research should address uncertainties regarding possible tundra ecosystem shifts linked to fires, using methods that encompass greater temporal and spatial scales than previously addressed. More case studies, especially in underrepresented regions and ecosystem types, are essential to broaden the empirical basis for forecasts and potential fire management strategies. 4. Synthesis. Our review synthesises current knowledge on post-fire vegetation trajectories in Arctic tundra ecosystems, highlighting potential transitions and alternative ecosystem states and their implications. We discuss challenges in defining and predicting these trajectories as well as future directions.
Publishing Year
Date Published
2025-03-13
Journal Title
Journal of Ecology
Publisher
Wiley
Acknowledgement
We would like to express our sincere gratitude to all the data providers who carried out fieldwork in different regions of the Arctic and published their data, which we used for our meta-analysis. We recognise the hard work and dedication of these individuals, without whom this paper would not have been possible. We are grateful to the editor and the anonymous reviewer for their time and valuable feedback on this manuscript. We particularly appreciate the detailed and constructive comments provided by reviewer Mara Baudena, which significantly strengthened our work. We also acknowledge the Indigenous peoples and rural communities of the Arctic, whose traditional knowledge, rights, and interests are integral to the stewardship and study of these ecosystems. This work was funded in part by the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) grant 80NSSC22K1256 (GVF). Open Access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL.
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Heim RJ, Rocha AV, Zemlianskii V, et al. Arctic tundra ecosystems under fire—Alternative ecosystem states in a changing climate? Journal of Ecology. 2025. doi:10.1111/1365-2745.70022
Heim, R. J., Rocha, A. V., Zemlianskii, V., Barrett, K., Bültmann, H., Breen, A., … Schaepman-Strub, G. (2025). Arctic tundra ecosystems under fire—Alternative ecosystem states in a changing climate? Journal of Ecology. Wiley. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.70022
Heim, Ramona Julia, Adrian V. Rocha, Vitalii Zemlianskii, Kirsten Barrett, Helga Bültmann, Amy Breen, Gerald Verner Frost, et al. “Arctic Tundra Ecosystems under Fire—Alternative Ecosystem States in a Changing Climate?” Journal of Ecology. Wiley, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.70022.
R. J. Heim et al., “Arctic tundra ecosystems under fire—Alternative ecosystem states in a changing climate?,” Journal of Ecology. Wiley, 2025.
Heim RJ, Rocha AV, Zemlianskii V, Barrett K, Bültmann H, Breen A, Frost GV, Hollingsworth TN, Jandt R, Kozlova M, Kurka A, Jorgenson MT, Landhäusser SM, Loranty MM, Miller EA, Narita K, Pravdolyubova E, Hölzel N, Schaepman-Strub G. 2025. Arctic tundra ecosystems under fire—Alternative ecosystem states in a changing climate? Journal of Ecology.
Heim, Ramona Julia, et al. “Arctic Tundra Ecosystems under Fire—Alternative Ecosystem States in a Changing Climate?” Journal of Ecology, Wiley, 2025, doi:10.1111/1365-2745.70022.
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