Adaptive processes in biology and culture : Models of evolving vaccine resistance and the record statistics of innovation

This thesis is organized into two parts, each comprising two chapters: Chapter 1 and 2 offer models for the evolution of vaccine resistance in response to diverse vaccination strategies. Chapter 3 and 4 review the statistics of records, their connection to models of innovation and an application to the cultural evolution of sports. In chapter 1 we present a modelling study from 2021 on the evolution of SARS-CoV-2. At that time the vaccine-resistant Omicron variant had not yet evolved. In our model we consider a population that is becoming vaccinated over time, while a pathogen is spreading in the population and eventually becoming resistant to the vaccine. We explore effective pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions to prevent the emergence of vaccine resistance. In chapter 2 we model a particular set of complex vaccination strategies, mosaic and pyramid vaccination, where an immunologically diverse portfolio of vaccines is considered. We find that a bet-hatching strategy, in which vaccine types are distributed in the population, is effective at hindering the evolution of vaccine resistance if mutation rates are high. In chapter 3 we switch gears and present a review on the statistics of records. We highlight similarities and analogies to other models in the fields of statistical physics, evolution and innovation. This offers interesting complimentary perspectives on well-known models. In chapter 4 we apply models of record statistics and innovation to study cultural evolution in sport. We propose a model of sport evolution that combines deterministic improvements in performance and stochastic bursts of improvements due to innovation.