Projecting the morbidity burden of mental and behavioral disorders associated with increasing humid heat in Shanghai
Liang C, Yuan J, Zhang R, Tang X, Schumann G, Hitchen E, Polemiti E, Serin E, Kebir H, Lett TA, Vaidya N, Roy J-C, Walter H, Heinz A, Ralser M, Twardziok S, Eils R, Jentsch M, Taron U-H, Schütz T, Schepanski K, Banaschewski T, Neidhart M, Meyer-Lindenberg A, Tost H, Holz N, Schwarz E, Stringaris A, Christmann N, Janson K, Nees F, Neidhart M, Seefried B, Aden R, Andreassen OA, Westlye LT, van der Meer D, Fernández-Cabello S, Kjelkenes R, Ask H, Rapp M, Tschorn M, Böttger SJ, Marquand A, Bernas A, Novarino G, Slater M, Gallego J, Pastor Á, Feixas G, Eiroa-Orosa FJ, Nöthen MM, Forstner AJ, Claus I, Mathey C, Heilmann-Heimbach S, Hoffmann P, Miller A, Sommer P, Schmitt K, Wilbertz J, Patraskaki M, Jirsa V, Petkoski S, Athanasiadis A-P, Spanlang B, Pearmund C, Hese S, Renner P, Jia T, Chang X, Dai Y, Xia Y, Li Y, Zhang Y, Calhoun V, Thompson P, Clinton N, Desrivières S, Agunbiade K, Yu X, Zhang Z, Chen D, Young AH, Schwalber A, Köhler V, Stahl B, Ogoh G, Schikowski T, Brandlistuen R. 2025. Projecting the morbidity burden of mental and behavioral disorders associated with increasing humid heat in Shanghai. Nature Mental Health. 3(12), 1532–1544.
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Journal Article
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Scopus indexed
Author
Liang, Chen;
Yuan, Jiacan;
Zhang, Renhe;
Tang, Xu;
Schumann, Gunter;
Hitchen, Esther;
Polemiti, Elli;
Serin, Emin;
Kebir, Hedi;
Lett, Tristram A.;
Vaidya, Nilakshi;
Roy, Jean-Charles
All
All
Department
Abstract
Residents of low-latitude megacities face growing vulnerability to humid-heat stress under urbanization and global warming, yet limited research has assessed the morbidity burden of mental and behavioral disorders (MBDs) linked to humid-heat exposures in these cities. Here we quantify the hospital admissions of MBDs in Shanghai, a megacity of over 25 million inhabitants, attributable to humid heat, and project future burdens under various greenhouse gas (GHG)-emission and population scenarios. Humid heat drives a higher morbidity burden than high temperature alone, especially in humid-heat nights. Without population change, the humid-heat-related morbidity burden of MBDs would increase by 68.2% (95% empirical confidence interval 56.7%–81.6%) under the highest-GHG-emission scenario by the 2090s, while 8,465 (95% empirical confidence interval 6,928–10,053) cases would be avoided by reducing emissions to the lowest pathway. With projected population decline, the attributable hospital admissions will decrease toward century’s end. These findings highlight the benefit of GHG mitigation in reducing the growing MBD risks posed by extreme humid heat.
Publishing Year
Date Published
2025-12-01
Journal Title
Nature Mental Health
Publisher
Springer Nature
Acknowledgement
This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grants 42288101 and 42175066) and Shanghai International Science and Technology Partnership Project (grant 21230780200). G.S. is supported by the China Brain Project (grant 2025ZD0215100), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant 82150710554), the Chinese National Key Project (grant 2023YFE0199700), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant W2541022) and the EC Horizon Europe: environMENTAL project.
Volume
3
Issue
12
Page
1532-1544
ISSN
IST-REx-ID
Cite this
Liang C, Yuan J, Zhang R, et al. Projecting the morbidity burden of mental and behavioral disorders associated with increasing humid heat in Shanghai. Nature Mental Health. 2025;3(12):1532-1544. doi:10.1038/s44220-025-00519-y
Liang, C., Yuan, J., Zhang, R., Tang, X., Schumann, G., Hitchen, E., … Brandlistuen, R. (2025). Projecting the morbidity burden of mental and behavioral disorders associated with increasing humid heat in Shanghai. Nature Mental Health. Springer Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44220-025-00519-y
Liang, Chen, Jiacan Yuan, Renhe Zhang, Xu Tang, Gunter Schumann, Esther Hitchen, Elli Polemiti, et al. “Projecting the Morbidity Burden of Mental and Behavioral Disorders Associated with Increasing Humid Heat in Shanghai.” Nature Mental Health. Springer Nature, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44220-025-00519-y.
C. Liang et al., “Projecting the morbidity burden of mental and behavioral disorders associated with increasing humid heat in Shanghai,” Nature Mental Health, vol. 3, no. 12. Springer Nature, pp. 1532–1544, 2025.
Liang C, Yuan J, Zhang R, Tang X, Schumann G, Hitchen E, Polemiti E, Serin E, Kebir H, Lett TA, Vaidya N, Roy J-C, Walter H, Heinz A, Ralser M, Twardziok S, Eils R, Jentsch M, Taron U-H, Schütz T, Schepanski K, Banaschewski T, Neidhart M, Meyer-Lindenberg A, Tost H, Holz N, Schwarz E, Stringaris A, Christmann N, Janson K, Nees F, Neidhart M, Seefried B, Aden R, Andreassen OA, Westlye LT, van der Meer D, Fernández-Cabello S, Kjelkenes R, Ask H, Rapp M, Tschorn M, Böttger SJ, Marquand A, Bernas A, Novarino G, Slater M, Gallego J, Pastor Á, Feixas G, Eiroa-Orosa FJ, Nöthen MM, Forstner AJ, Claus I, Mathey C, Heilmann-Heimbach S, Hoffmann P, Miller A, Sommer P, Schmitt K, Wilbertz J, Patraskaki M, Jirsa V, Petkoski S, Athanasiadis A-P, Spanlang B, Pearmund C, Hese S, Renner P, Jia T, Chang X, Dai Y, Xia Y, Li Y, Zhang Y, Calhoun V, Thompson P, Clinton N, Desrivières S, Agunbiade K, Yu X, Zhang Z, Chen D, Young AH, Schwalber A, Köhler V, Stahl B, Ogoh G, Schikowski T, Brandlistuen R. 2025. Projecting the morbidity burden of mental and behavioral disorders associated with increasing humid heat in Shanghai. Nature Mental Health. 3(12), 1532–1544.
Liang, Chen, et al. “Projecting the Morbidity Burden of Mental and Behavioral Disorders Associated with Increasing Humid Heat in Shanghai.” Nature Mental Health, vol. 3, no. 12, Springer Nature, 2025, pp. 1532–44, doi:10.1038/s44220-025-00519-y.
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