From sparse selection to risk prediction: Approximate message passing for proteomic survival models and large-scale genomics

Uncovering the genetic architecture of complex traits and pinpointing causal molecular drivers require the ability to distinguish true signals from noise within massive, high-dimensional omics datasets. To extract meaningful biological insights from these datasets, such as identifying causal genetic variants and proteins, scalable and accurate inference methods are essential. To this end, this thesis develops novel Bayesian inference frameworks based on Vector Approximate Message Passing and demonstrates their effectiveness in the modeling of disease onset times and quantitative physical and clinical measures. First, we introduce gVAMP, a Bayesian framework tailored for Genome-Wide Association Studies that enables the joint modeling of quantitative complex traits across millions of genetic variants. gVAMP demonstrates superior accuracy in variable selection and out-of-sample polygenic risk prediction compared to state-of-the-art approaches. We model human height using 17 million whole-genome sequence variants from the UK Biobank, incorporating a vast number of rare variants and revealing novel associations. gVAMP achieves a prediction accuracy of approximately 46% for human height, representing the highest reported performance for this trait to date. Second, we present vampW, a Bayesian framework for survival analysis applied to proteomic data. By effectively handling right-censoring and complex protein dependencies within the UK Biobank Pharma Proteomics Project dataset, vampW identifies 219 protein associations across 24 disease outcomes, the majority of which are not among the top marginal discoveries. We further adjust protein levels for exponential age effects, yielding 1,308 associations and highlighting the sensitivity of the analysis to the chosen age-correction methodology. Finally, vampW improves upon the variable selection capabilities of the commonly used (penalized) variants of the Cox proportional hazards model and delivers state-of-the-art out-of-sample prediction of disease onset times. Collectively, these methods provide powerful tools for dissecting the genetic architecture of complex traits and the proteomic drivers of disease onset. Furthermore, by delivering accurate polygenic risk scores and precise predictions of onset times, this work advances the capabilities of personalized medicine and clinical risk stratification.