Tail approximation for the chemical master equation

The chemical master equation is a differential equation describing the time evolution of the probability distribution over the possible “states” of a biochemical system. The solution of this equation is of interest within the systems biology field ever since the importance of the molec- ular noise has been acknowledged. Unfortunately, most of the systems do not have analytical solutions, and numerical solutions suffer from the course of dimensionality and therefore need to be approximated. Here, we introduce the concept of tail approximation, which retrieves an approximation of the probabilities in the tail of a distribution from the total probability of the tail and its conditional expectation. This approximation method can then be used to numerically compute the solution of the chemical master equation on a subset of the state space, thus fighting the explosion of the state space, for which this problem is renowned.