The reduction in fixation probability caused by substitutions at linked loci

The probability of fixation of a mutation with selective advantage s will be reduced by substitutions at other loci. The effect of a single substitution, with selective advantage S0016672300032857inline1, can be approximated as a sudden reduction in the frequency of the favourable allele, by a fraction w = 1 −(s/S)r/s (where r is the recombination rate). An expression for the effect of a given sequence of such catastrophes is derived. This also applies to the ecological prxoblem of finding the probability that a small population will survive, despite occasional disasters. It is shown that if substitutions occur at a rate Δ, and are scattered randomly over a genetic map of length R, then an allele is unlikely to be fixed if its advantage is less than a critical value, Scrit = (π2/6)(2ΔS/(Rlog(S/s))). This threshold depends primarily on the variance in fitness per unit map length dueto substitutions, var(W)/R = 2ΔS/R. With no recombination, the fixation probability can be calculated for a finite population. If Δ > s, it is of the same order as for a neutral allele ( ≈ Δ/(2N(Δ−s))), whilst if S0016672300032857inline2, fixation probability is much higher than for a neutral allele, but much lower than in the absence of hitch-hiking S0016672300032857inline3. These results suggest that hitch-hiking may substantially impede the accumulation of weakly favoured adaptations.