How key features of early development shape deep convective systems

Abramian S, Muller CJ, Risi C, Fiolleau T, Roca R. 2025. How key features of early development shape deep convective systems. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. 8, 258.

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Journal Article | Published | English

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Author
Abramian, Sophie; Muller, Caroline JISTA ; Risi, Camille; Fiolleau, Thomas; Roca, Rémy
Department
Abstract
Deep Convective Systems (DCSs) reaching scales of 100–1000 km play a pivotal role as the primary precipitation source in the tropics. Those systems can have large cloud shields, and thus not only affect severe precipitation patterns but also play a crucial part in modulating the tropical radiation budget. Understanding the complex factors that control how these systems grow and how they will behave in a warming climate remain fundamental challenges. Research efforts have been directed, on one hand, towards understanding the environmental control on these systems, and on the other hand, towards exploring the internal potential of systems to develop and self-aggregate in idealized simulations. However, we still lack understanding on the relative role of the environment and internal feedbacks on DCS mature size and why. The novel high-resolution global SAM simulation from the DYAMOND project, combined with the TOOCAN Lagrangian tracking of DCSs and machine learning tools, offers an unprecedented opportunity to explore this question. We find that a system’s growth rate during the first 2 h of development predicts its final size with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.65. Beyond this period, growth rate emerges as the strongest predictor. However, in the early stages, additional factors–such as ice water path heterogeneity, migration distance, interactions with neighboring systems, and deep shear–play a more significant role. Our study quantitatively assesses the relative influence of internal versus external factors on the mature cloud shield size. Our results show that system-intrinsic properties exert a stronger influence than environmental conditions, suggesting that the initial environment does not strictly constrain final system size, particularly for larger systems where internal dynamics dominate.
Publishing Year
Date Published
2025-07-08
Journal Title
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Publisher
Springer Nature
Acknowledgement
C.M. and S.A. gratefully acknowledge funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (Project CLUSTER, grant agreement 805041), and from the PhD fellowship of Ecole Normale Supérieure de Paris-Saclay. DYAMOND data management was provided by the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ) and supported through the projects ESiWACE and ESiWACE2. The projects ESiWACE and ESiWACE2 have received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreements No 675191 and 823988. This work used resources of the Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ) granted by its Scientific Steering Committee (WLA) under project IDs bk1040 and bb1153. The authors express their gratitude to Sophie Cloché and Eileen Hertwig for their assistance in data archival at IPSL and DKRZ, respectively. We also thank Christophe Lampert and Benjamin Fildier for valuable scientific discussions, and acknowledge the thoughtful comments of two anonymous reviewers.
Volume
8
Article Number
258
eISSN
IST-REx-ID

Cite this

Abramian S, Muller CJ, Risi C, Fiolleau T, Roca R. How key features of early development shape deep convective systems. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. 2025;8. doi:10.1038/s41612-025-01154-1
Abramian, S., Muller, C. J., Risi, C., Fiolleau, T., & Roca, R. (2025). How key features of early development shape deep convective systems. Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. Springer Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01154-1
Abramian, Sophie, Caroline J Muller, Camille Risi, Thomas Fiolleau, and Rémy Roca. “How Key Features of Early Development Shape Deep Convective Systems.” Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. Springer Nature, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01154-1.
S. Abramian, C. J. Muller, C. Risi, T. Fiolleau, and R. Roca, “How key features of early development shape deep convective systems,” npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, vol. 8. Springer Nature, 2025.
Abramian S, Muller CJ, Risi C, Fiolleau T, Roca R. 2025. How key features of early development shape deep convective systems. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. 8, 258.
Abramian, Sophie, et al. “How Key Features of Early Development Shape Deep Convective Systems.” Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, vol. 8, 258, Springer Nature, 2025, doi:10.1038/s41612-025-01154-1.
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2025-07-22
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